The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
sanaa tareq, Baghdad Science Journal, - Cited by 1
In this paper, suggested formula as well a conventional method for estimating the twoparameters (shape and scale) of the Generalized Rayleigh Distribution was proposed. For different sample sizes (small, medium, and large) and assumed several contrasts for the two parameters a percentile estimator was been used. Mean Square Error was implemented as an indicator of performance and comparisons of the performance have been carried out through data analysis and computer simulation between the suggested formulas versus the studied formula according to the applied indicator. It was observed from the results that the suggested method which was performed for the first time (as far as we know), had highly advantage than t
... Show MoreThis paper deals with, Bayesian estimation of the parameters of Gamma distribution under Generalized Weighted loss function, based on Gamma and Exponential priors for the shape and scale parameters, respectively. Moment, Maximum likelihood estimators and Lindley’s approximation have been used effectively in Bayesian estimation. Based on Monte Carlo simulation method, those estimators are compared in terms of the mean squared errors (MSE’s).
Some physical properties enthalpy (?H), entropy (?s), free energy (?G),capacities(?cp?) and Pka values) for valine in dimethyl foramideover the temperature range 293.15-318.15K, were determined by direct conductance measurements. The acid dissociation at six temperature was examined at solvent composition x2) involving 0.141 of dimethyl foramide . As results, calculated values have been used to determine the dissociation constant and the associated thermodynamic function for the valine in the solvent mixture over temperatures in the range 293.15-318.15 k. The Pka1, and Pka2 were increased with increasing temperature.
Methotrxate (MTX) has become the standard of care and first-line therapy for patients who have RA and consider as a gold standard of treatment for RA. The role of MTX in the treatment of RA has now been well established. The use of MTX treatment of RA inhibits proliferation of the lymphocytes, reduces signs and symptoms this disease, reduces progression damage of the joints and improves quality of life outcome. Progranulin (PGRN) acts a role in autoimmune inflammatory, has important function in several processes including immune response. Present study has conducted to find the effect of MTX drugs as a therapeutic target for RA patients because of its ability to bind with tumor necrosis factor receptor (TNFR), with progranulin, obestatin an
... Show MoreIn this paper, RBF-based multistage auto-encoders are used to detect IDS attacks. RBF has numerous applications in various actual life settings. The planned technique involves a two-part multistage auto-encoder and RBF. The multistage auto-encoder is applied to select top and sensitive features from input data. The selected features from the multistage auto-encoder is wired as input to the RBF and the RBF is trained to categorize the input data into two labels: attack or no attack. The experiment was realized using MATLAB2018 on a dataset comprising 175,341 case, each of which involves 42 features and is authenticated using 82,332 case. The developed approach here has been applied for the first time, to the knowledge of the authors, to dete
... Show MoreIn this paper, a Monte Carlo Simulation technique is used to compare the performance of the standard Bayes estimators of the reliability function of the one parameter exponential distribution .Three types of loss functions are adopted, namely, squared error loss function (SELF) ,Precautionary error loss function (PELF) andlinear exponential error loss function(LINEX) with informative and non- informative prior .The criterion integrated mean square error (IMSE) is employed to assess the performance of such estimators
In this study, we derived the estimation for Reliability of the Exponential distribution based on the Bayesian approach. In the Bayesian approach, the parameter of the Exponential distribution is assumed to be random variable .We derived posterior distribution the parameter of the Exponential distribution under four types priors distributions for the scale parameter of the Exponential distribution is: Inverse Chi-square distribution, Inverted Gamma distribution, improper distribution, Non-informative distribution. And the estimators for Reliability is obtained using the two proposed loss function in this study which is based on the natural logarithm for Reliability function .We used simulation technique, to compare the
... Show MoreThe linear segment with parabolic blend (LSPB) trajectory deviates from the specified waypoints. It is restricted to that the acceleration must be sufficiently high. In this work, it is proposed to engage modified LSPB trajectory with particle swarm optimization (PSO) so as to create through points on the trajectory. The assumption of normal LSPB method that parabolic part is centered in time around waypoints is replaced by proposed coefficients for calculating the time duration of the linear part. These coefficients are functions of velocities between through points. The velocities are obtained by PSO so as to force the LSPB trajectory passing exactly through the specified path points. Also, relations for velocity correction and exact v
... Show MoreAsthma is a chronic respiratory disease highly prevalent worldwide. Recent studies have suggested a role for microbiome-associated gut–lung axis in asthma development. In the current study, we investigated if Resveratrol (RES), a plant-based polyphenol, can attenuate ovalbumin (OVA)-induced murine allergic asthma, and if so, the role of microbiome in the gut–lung axis in this process. We found that RES attenuated allergic asthma with significant improvements in pulmonary functions in OVA-exposed mice when tested using plethysmography for frequency (F), mean volume (MV), specific airway resistance (sRaw), and delay time(dT). RES treatment also suppressed inflammatory cytokines in the lungs. RES modulated lung microbiota and cause
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