The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
The paper attempts to find out the elements of picaresque novel in selected English and Iraqi novels. It studies these elements in Henry Fielding’s Joseph Andrews and Adil Abduljabbar’s Arzal Hamad Al-Salim. The paper is divided into four sections. The first is an introduction to the picaresque novel. It gives a definition, a historical background, and the elements of the genre. The second section studies Fielding’s novel focusing on the elements of this type of novel and how it affects the story itself. The paper follows the novel from the beginning to the end showing these elements. The third is dedicated to Abduljabbar’s novel and how the elements of picaresque genre appear in the novel and play an important role in its developm
... Show MoreCollapsing building structures during recent earthquakes, especially in Northern and Eastern Kurdistan, including the 2003 earthquake in Cewlig; the 2011 earthquake in Van; and the 2017 earthquake near Halabja province, has raised several concerns about the safety of pre-seismic code buildings and emergency facilities in Erbil city. The seismic vulnerability assessment of the hospital buildings as emergency facilities is one of the necessities which have a critical role in the recovery period following earthquakes. This research aims to study in detail and to extend the present knowledge about the seismic vulnerability of the Rizgary public hospital building in Erbil city, which was constructed before releasing the seism
... Show MoreGlobalization has occupied a great deal of studies, research and literature, in addition to being a phenomenon that has imposed itself firmly on the ground. Globalization is considered the main feature of the current moment in today's world. The world is now transforming in an unprecedented way under noticeable titles of successive waves of knowledge and technology.The current research aims to identify the effects of globalization on the variables and their political, social, media and cultural dimensions, as well as culture of consumption and cultural identity.The theoretical framework included two sections: the first is the concept of globalization, its history and its dimensions, and the second is the modernity in contemporary Europea
... Show MoreThe construction of development is required to develop various economic sectors with the necessity to meet the various requirement of both individuals and institutions , or through the import process , which must be commensurate with the needs of the market and the economy and development. But in fact , we found that the process of import in Iraq after 2003 took a turn dangerous excesses on limits of philosophy and objectives of the import , which reflected the level of national production as well as the policy of dumping and given to the lack of matching a lot of goods and materials imported for Standards and Measures of quality and stands behind it causes many of them exposure to the market and weak sectors with an o
... Show MoreThe present study investigates the relation between the biliteral and triliteral roots which is the introduction to comprehend the nature of the Semitic roots during its early stage of development being unconfirmed to a single pattern. The present research is not meant to decide on the question of the biliteral roots in the Semitic languages, rather it is meant to confirm the predominance of the triliteral roots on these languages which refers, partially, to analogy adopted by the majority of linguists. This tendency is frequently seen in the languages which incline to over generalize the triliteral phenomenon, i. e., to transfer the biliteral roots to the triliteral room, that is, to subject it to the predominant pattern regarding the r
... Show MoreThis study deals with the time property in the cinema through two films: (The Knife) directed by Khalid Hamada and (The Deceived) directed by Tawfiq Saleh. These two films were excerpted by the cinema from two novels of the Palestinian writer Ghassan Kanafani, the first is from the novel (What is Left for You) and the second is from the novel (Men in the Sun). If the Palestinian novel has imposed its presence on the Arab creative scene through a group of novelists who took it upon themselves to communicate their cause to the world, the Palestinian cinema has been far from being a purely Palestinian, because many of the cinematic works have been provided by Arab countries on the issue, while this cinema is still seeking
... Show MoreIn this paper a prey-predator-scavenger food web model is proposed and studied. It is assumed that the model considered the effect of harvesting and all the species are infected by some toxicants released by some other species. The stability analysis of all possible equilibrium points is discussed. The persistence conditions of the system are established. The occurrence of local bifurcation around the equilibrium points is investigated. Numerical simulation is used and the obtained solution curves are drawn to illustrate the results of the model. Finally, the nonexistence of periodic dynamics is discussed analytically as well as numerically.
This study is marked by: The ignorant poem and body language
Its main objective is to reveal the manifestations of this language in the text mentioned, and accordingly, the sieve poem has been read semantic (semantic) and hermeneutic, revealing the poet's ability to employ symbols and signals (body language) in the poem chosen for this purpose; The existence of such language in pre-Islamic poetry. After a long reflection and reading, the signs and symbols of the physical movement of the body, and its feminine and aesthetic manifestations were identified, and this was achieved through the use of modern critical methodologies that directly affect this language. The study consisted of an introduction and three topics, followed by t
This research aims to present a proposed model for disclosure and documentation when performing the audit according to the joint audit method by using the questions and principles of the collective intelligence system, which leads to improving and enhancing the efficiency of the joint audit, and thus enhancing the confidence of the parties concerned in the outputs of the audit process. As the research problem can be formulated through the following question: “Does the proposed model for disclosure of the role of the collective intelligence system contribute to improving joint auditing?”
The proposed model is designed for the disclosure of joint auditing and the role
... Show MoreThe construction of development is required to develop various economic sectors with the necessity to meet the various requirement of both individuals and institutions , or through the import process , which must be commensurate with the needs of the market and the economy and development. But in fact , we find that the process of import in Iraq after 2003 took a turn dangerous excesses on limits of philosophy and objectives of the import , which is reflected at the level of national production as well as the policy of dumping and given and the lack of matching a lot of goods and materials imported for Standards and Measures of quality and stands behind it causes many of them exposure to the market and weak sectors with an overlap betwee
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