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bsj-4606
A Modified Approach by Using Prediction to Build a Best Threshold in ARX Model with Practical Application
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The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in determining the best seasonal model. Then they are compared with the obtained models from two methods that mentioned above of the two approaches within a group of the criteria as AIC, MDL, Loss Function, BIC, FPE, MSE, in addition the proposed weighted comparison criteria to determine the best model for representing the wind speed data as input variable, soil and dust as an output variable, in Baghdad Station from January 1956 to December 2012.

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 26 2019
Journal Name
International Journal Of Mathematics And Mathematical Sciences
Stability and Bifurcation of a Prey-Predator-Scavenger Model in the Existence of Toxicant and Harvesting
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In this paper a prey-predator-scavenger food web model is proposed and studied. It is assumed that the model considered the effect of harvesting and all the species are infected by some toxicants released by some other species. The stability analysis of all possible equilibrium points is discussed. The persistence conditions of the system are established. The occurrence of local bifurcation around the equilibrium points is investigated. Numerical simulation is used and the obtained solution curves are drawn to illustrate the results of the model. Finally, the nonexistence of periodic dynamics is discussed analytically as well as numerically.

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 20 2024
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WITH A CHECKLIST OF LAND SNAILS IN IRAQ
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Land snails constitute an important group of mollusks distributed worldwide. This study reports on land snails found in Iraq. A survey of terrestrial gastropods was performed during their activity seasons in gardens, agricultural lands and nurseries in Iraq from March 2022 to September 2023. Fifteen terrestrial snails belonging to seven families were documented. The species Euchondrus michonii (Bourguignat, 1853) was identified and recorded based on several distinct conchological characters for the first time in Iraq. The recently collected specimens, along with those previously recorded in Iraq, were included in this checklist. Essential information on each species is also presented. As there is no previous checklist or study that

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Deposit insurance system and its role in financial security for the period (2010-2018) Study the experiences of Selected countries with reference to Iraq
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Founding a System to secure deposits and protecting the depositors is considered one of the important and exchanged subjects out there in the banking system/field in Iraq at the current time, and the reason behind the exchange and spread of this subject is due to the financial crisis of which the banking sector is suffering from and the stumbling of many banks, those factors have had led to the insecurity of the depositors and their mistrust towards banks, thus, it is necessary to create a system to secure deposits in which depositors would be compensated for the losses caused by the banks' failures. in addition, it could be a countermeasure system which maintains the banking stability, protects the rights of depositors and gains

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 28 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
The Effect of Increasing Rehabilitation Program Using Electric Stimulation On Rehabilitating Knee Joint Working Muscles Due to ACL Tear In Athletes
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The research aimed at designing a rehabilitation program using electric stimulation for rehabilitating knee joint working muscles as a result of ACL tear using an apparatus developed by the researchers that stimulate the muscle vibration and work as well as the ability to rehabilitate the join in shorter periods. In addition to that, it aimed at identifying the effect of this program on rehabilitating the knee joint working muscles. The researchers used the experimental method on Baghdad clubs’ players who suffer from complete knee joint ACL tear aged (19 – 24) years old. The results showed that the training program developed the working muscles significantly achieving normal levels of activity.

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Permeability Prediction By Classical and Flow Zone Indictor (FZI) Methods for an Iraqi Gas Field
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The permeability is the most important parameter that indicates how efficient the reservoir fluids flow through the rock pores to the wellbore. Well-log evaluation and core measurements techniques are typically used to estimate it. In this paper, the permeability has been predicted by using classical and Flow zone indicator methods. A comparison between the two methods shows the superiority of the FZI method correlations, these correlations can be used to estimate permeability in un-cored wells with a good approximation.

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 20 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Evaluation of serum levels of Proinflammatory Cytokines IL-8, IL-17, and IL-22 in Helicobacter pylori infection and their association with the degree of gastritis histopathology in a sample of Iraqi patients
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Gastritis can be defined as histological inflammation of the gastric mucosa. It can be classified according to the time course of the disease as acute or chronic, histological findings, anatomic location, and pathological mechanisms. The objective of this study was to evaluation of serum levels of the proinflammatory cytokines IL-8, IL-17 and IL-22 in Helicobacter pylori infection and their association with the degree of gastritis histopathology in a sample of Iraqi patients. The case-control prospective study consists of 60 patients who attended the Gastrointestinal Tract Center at Al-Kindy Teaching Hospital during the period from December 2019 to April 2020. In addition, the control group included 60 apparently healthy individuals. Bio

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 13 2022
Journal Name
وقائع المؤتمر العلمي الدولي التاسع / المجلة الامريكية الدولية للعلوم الانسانية والاجتماعية
The Relationship between Job Satisfaction and Organizational Loyalty among Baghdad University Employees in light of Covid- 19 A Descriptive Analytical Study (University of Baghdad as a model)
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The educational service industry is one of the most negatively affected industries by the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Government agencies have taken many measures to slow its spread, and then restrict movement and gatherings and stop recreational activities. Furthermore, the repercussions of the curfew had a significant impact due to the interruption in actual attendance for students and employees, and the severity of the Covid-19 crisis and its (economic, social, security, humanitarian and behavioral) effects on all societies and work sectors is no secret to anyone. Iraq, like other countries, was also affected by the negative impact of Covid-19 pandemic in all fields of institutional work, especially public fields, and specifically t

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of the RMB exchange rate on the value of Chinese exports For the period (1978-2017) using the Angel-Granger model
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In this research, we sought to identify the nature of the relationship between the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan and the value of Chinese exports, through the formulation of a standard model based on the model of common integration, and based on the data of the study and using the test "Angel-Granger" It reflects the relationship between the two research variables, through which the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and the value of Chinese exports was estimated during the period 1978-2017.

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Publication Date
Fri May 18 2018
Journal Name
Thesis
The Arabian killifish (Aphanius dispar) as a novel model for mycophysiological studies.
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Abstract Candida albicans is a commensal fungal pathogen that grows in yeast and hyphal forms in the human gut. C. albicans causes mucosal and cutaneous diseases that can result in significant mortality following systematic infections and it also exhibits drug resistance. Zebrafish have been an excellent model to investigate C. albicans infections because of their transparency and the availability of many transgenic lines. However, there is a limitation in using zebrafish as a model because the fish embryos cannot survive at 37°C therefore it is not suitable for studying Candida infections at physiological relevant human body temperature. In this thesis, the normal embryonic development of Arabian killifish (A. dispar) is investigated, rev

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
The European Union and the Extremist Right Phenomenon: Brexit as a Model
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The European Unit has never been affected by a serious phenomena as the phenomena of the advancing of the far right parties. Though these parties vary in their impact in their original countries, they agree on one important issue which is the deconstruction of the European unit and limiting its supernational powers. These increasing popular parties aim at more national independence in decision making away from the decisions taken by Brussels. Moreover, they criticize the financial and administrative corruption accompanied many of the rescuing procedures directed for example towards countries like Greece and Spain during the international economic crisis. This failure nourishes many of the negative feelings against the European unit which

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