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bsj-4606
A Modified Approach by Using Prediction to Build a Best Threshold in ARX Model with Practical Application
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The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in determining the best seasonal model. Then they are compared with the obtained models from two methods that mentioned above of the two approaches within a group of the criteria as AIC, MDL, Loss Function, BIC, FPE, MSE, in addition the proposed weighted comparison criteria to determine the best model for representing the wind speed data as input variable, soil and dust as an output variable, in Baghdad Station from January 1956 to December 2012.

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2013
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Describing the Wavefront Aberrations of the Hexagonal Aperture Using Modified Zernike Polynomials
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n Segmented Optical Telescope (NGST) with hexagonal segment of spherical primary mirror can provide a 3 arc minutes field of view. Extremely Large Telescopes (ELT) in the 100m dimension would have such unprecedented scientific effectiveness that their construction would constitute a milestone comparable to that of the invention of the telescope itself and provide a truly revolutionary insight into the universe. The scientific case and the conceptual feasibility of giant filled aperture telescopes was our interested. Investigating the requirements of these imply for possible technical options in the case of a 100m telescope. For this telescope the considerable interest is the correction of the optical aberrations for the coming wavefront, th

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Mixed Convection Heat Transfer in a Vertical Saturated Concentric Annulus Packed with a Metallic Porous Media
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Mixed convection heat transfer in a vertical concentric annulus packed with a metallic porous media and heated at a constant heat flux is experimentally investigated with water as the working fluid. A series of experiments have been carried out with a Rayleigh number range from Ra=122418.92 to 372579.31 and Reynolds number that based on the particles diameter of Red=14.62, 19.48 and 24.36. Under steady state condition, the measured data were collected and analyzed. Results show that the wall surface temperatures are affected by the imposed heat flux variation and Reynolds number variation. The variation of the local heat transfer coefficient and the mean Nusselt number are presented and analyzed. An empirical

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 01 1990
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum (p-issn: 1017-8678 , E-issn: 2311-9799)
CHALCIDOID (HYMENOPTERA.) PARASITES OF THE BRUCHID BEETLES IN IRAQ WITH A DESCRIPTION OF A NEW SPECIES)
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The present work deals with five species of parasitic Hymenoptera belonging to Pteromalidae, Eupelmidae and Eurytornidae which have been reared from brachid beetles. A new species, Eurytoma irakensis is described and the species, Bruchocida orientalis Crawford is recorded for the first time from Iraq.

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 13 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Chaos in Beddington–DeAngelis food chain model with fear
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Abstract<p>In the current paper, the effect of fear in three species Beddington–DeAngelis food chain model is investigated. A three species food chain model incorporating Beddington-DeAngelis functional response is proposed, where the growth rate in the first and second level decreases due to existence of predator in the upper level. The existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the solution of the model are studied. All the possible equilibrium points are determined. The local as well as global stability of the system are investigated. The persistence conditions of the system are established. The local bifurcation analysis of the system is carried out. Finally, numerical simulations are used t</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Wed Aug 24 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Tikrit University For Humanities
A Training Program Based on Integrating Future Thinking Skills and Classroom Interaction Patterns for Mathematics Teachers and Providing Their Students with Creative Solution Skills
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The research aims to recognize the impact of the training program based on integrating future thinking skills and classroom interaction patterns for mathematics teachers and providing their students with creative solution skills. To achieve the goal of the research, the following hypothesis was formulated: There is no statistically significant difference at the level (0.05) between the mean scores of students of mathematics teachers whose teachers trained according to the proposed training program (the experimental group) and whose teachers were not trained according to the proposed training program (the control group) in Pre-post creative solution skills test. Research sample is consisted of (31) teachers and schools were distribut

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2024
Journal Name
Partial Differential Equations In Applied Mathematics
Improving the hepatitis viral transmission model’s dynamics by vaccination and contrasting it with the fractional-order model
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We investigate mathematical models of the Hepatitis B and C viruses in the study, considering vaccination effects into account. By utilising fractional and ordinary differential equations, we prove the existence of equilibrium and the well-posedness of the solution. We prove worldwide stability with respect to the fundamental reproduction number. Our numerical techniques highlight the biological relevance and highlight the effect of fractional derivatives on temporal behaviour. We illustrate the relationships among susceptible, immunised, and infected populations in our epidemiological model. Using comprehensive numerical simulations, we analyse the effects of fractional derivatives and highlight solution behaviours. Subsequent investigatio

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Comparison Between Maximum Likelihood Method And Bayesian Method For Estimating Some Non-Homogeneous Poisson Processes Models
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Abstract

The Non - Homogeneous Poisson  process is considered  as one of the statistical subjects which had an importance in other sciences and a large application in different areas as waiting raws and rectifiable systems method , computer and communication systems and the theory of reliability and many other, also it used in modeling the phenomenon that occurred by unfixed way over time (all events that changed by time).

This research deals with some of the basic concepts that are related to the Non - Homogeneous Poisson process , This research carried out two models of the Non - Homogeneous Poisson process which are the power law model , and Musa –okumto ,   to estimate th

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 02 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
DEVELOP SCALE OF SELECTIV MUTISM WITH PUPILS OF PRIMARY SCHOOLS
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This study aimed to develop scale of Selectiv Mutism with pupils of primary schools  according to their teachers' view in Baghdad city (Karh and Resaf(.

Children might choose the mutism as the solution to avoid some psychological and social problems that surrounded them. Furthermore, this could consider as a disorder that could effect the child and led him to use the Selected Mutism.

This is supported by the pilot study which was conducted by the researcher on 150 teachers in different primary schools in Baghdad. The results revealed some symptoms were found with children who have selected mutism.

Because of there was no scale was found to measure the Selected Mutism, a scale was develop in order to measure t

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 30 2007
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
A Study in to the Dynamic Behavior of Packed Distillation Column
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The study of the dynamic behavior of packed distillation column was studied by frequency response analysis using Matlab program. A packed distillation column (80 mm diameter) (2000 mm height) filled with glass packing (Raschig Rings 10mm), packing height (1500 mm) has been modified for separation of methanol-water mixture (60 vol%). The column dynamic behavior was studied experimentally under different step changes in, feed rate (±30%), reflux rate (±22%), and reboiler heat duty (±150%), the top and bottom concentration of methanol were measured. A frequency response analysis for the above step response was carried out using Bode diagram, the log modulus and the phase angle were  used to analyze the process model. A Matlab progra

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2012
Journal Name
The Iraqi Journal Of Agricultural Sciences
A FORMULA TO PREDICT INBREEDING DEPRESSION IN F2 POPULATION OF MAIZE
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A field experiment was conducted on the form of the Dept. of Field Crop Sci. / College of Agriculture / University of Baghdad in spring and fall seasons of 2009 and 2010 . Ten inbreds of maize were planted and crossed to each other to produce single crosses . In the second season, single crosses were planted along with thin parent to produce three – way and double crosses . In the third seasons panet and crosses were planted . Crosses were selfed to produce F2 seeds and increase seeds of inbreds . In the fourth season, all grin types were planted , and their agronomic traits were evaluated . Values of P of inbreds , F1 and F2 were calculated for agronomic traits . The new formula to predict inbreeding depression ( ID ) F2 plant without gr

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