Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

The stanza in the sonnet has been defined as a set of poetic lines followed after proem
and be the same meter as that of proem in complete stanza, but in rhyme scheme different
from that meter. The couplet is defined as set of poetic lines that followed the stanza and be as
the same meter as that of stanza, but with different rhyme scheme. This definition is approved
by all specialized in field of Andalus literature and it was also proven to them that this
construction emptied of indications. This meter has endeavored to prove that that there were a
difference in denotation for meaning between the stanza and couplet. Thus, the sonneteers
have outweighed the sonnet of the blind "Tutaili" to their sonnets as they felt

     The aim of this research is to study the surface alteration characteristics and surface morphology of the superhydrophobic/hydrophobic nanocomposite coatings prepared by an electrospinning method to coat various materials such as glass and metal. This is considered as a low cost method of fabrication for polymer solutions of Polystyrene (PS), Polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) and Silicone Rubber (RTV). Si were prepared in various wt% of composition for each solutions. Contact angle measurement, surface tension, viscosity, roughness tests were calculated for all specimens. SEM showed the morphology of the surfaces after coated. PS and PMMA showed superhydrophobic properties for metal substrate, while Si showed hydroph

Toxoplasmosis is a parasitic infection that triggers immune cells to produce cytokines and inflammatory mediators that are responsible for abnormal or aborted immune responses. This study highlights the evaluation of the Dectin-1 receptor and cytokine IL-37 in the serum of 80 patients who had miscarried in the first trimester and were infected with toxoplasmosis, as well as 40 pregnant women in the first trimester who had a successful pregnancy (control groups). The serum was first screened for the T. gondii IgM and IgG antibodies by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and then the serum levels of IL-37 and Dectin-1 were determined. The results showed that the serum level of Dectin-1 was significantly increased in anti-

With the advent of the globalization, the rapid development in technology and the intensity of competition companies attemptto maintain competition advantages and retain customers. The traditional methods in managerial accounting become irrelevance to achieve the objectives of these companies especially with the rapid changes in modern manufacturing environment .Thus there is a need to new tools in accounting such as lean accounting, which is considered as a costing method that support creating value for the customer by costing the entire value stream, eliminating waste in the accounting process, reduced lead time, improved quality, lowered time delivery and increased available capacity. Using value stream focuses not only on the waste&n

This present work is concerned with one of the syntactic issues that has been researched by many linguists, grammarians, and specialists in Islamic studies, the estimated answer to a condition. However, this topic is researched this time by examining Imam Al-Qurtbi’s opinions in interpreting related ayas from the holly Quraan in his book (Collector of Quranic Rules) or its transliteration (Al-Jami’ Li Ahkam Al-Quran). Such a step involves commenting on, tracking what Al-Qurtbi said in this regard, discussing it from the points of view of other grammarians, and judging  it accordingly, taking into account the apparent surface structures of the examples collected. To achieve this objective, the inductive analytical approach has be

The objective of present study was to investigate the effect of using duplex volaticle oil of Rosmarinusoficinolis and Nigella sativain microbial quality, sensing and extending storage time of minced cold poultry meat. Duplex volaticle oil was added at 25, 50 and 75 mg/kg to minced poultry meat , these treatments were stored individually for (0 ,4 and 7) days at( 4-7) C0 . After making several microbial and sensing test. The following results were obtained:- The process of adding duplex volaticle oil of Rosmarinus officinolis and Nigella sativa to minced poultry meat led to significant reduced (P<0.01) in total arobic count, psychrophilic count and coliform bacteria during refrigerated storage periods. The results showed asignificant sens

Relations of the prophets Muhammad (May peace be upon him) with by
gantlines from the revelation to the trance of al-hdybya 6 A.H/610 A.C.
This research is concerned with Islamic historical events, particularly dunning
the time of the prophet Muhammad. It also explores relations of the apostle of god
with the rums and their allies the Arabs of Syria.
During the first years of revelation Muslim had achieved great victories
against the unbelievers. This accomplishm-ent had draw attention of some foreign
forces such as the Arabs of Syria, who became snapicions of this new and active
power. Their hostile attend was demonstrated by striking an economical siege against
Muslims. They attacked the nabtins merchants who

This work deals with the description of histopathological effects of the nematode Hartertia
gallinarurn Theiler. 1919 on the digestive system of the seesee partridge collected from Qa’ra
area in the western desert district of Iraq. along with some notes on intensity fluctuation of the
parasite according to the seasons. It is found that the major effects of the nematode are
necrosis and fibrosis of gizzard: granulomatous reaction. necrosis and mononuclear
infiltration of proventriculus: damage of mucosal lining of intestine and lymphocytic
infiltration of liver.