Forest fires continue to rise during the dry season and they are difficult to stop. In this case, high temperatures in the dry season can cause an increase in drought index that could potentially burn the forest every time. Thus, the government should conduct surveillance throughout the dry season. Continuous surveillance without the focus on a particular time becomes ineffective and inefficient because of preventive measures carried out without the knowledge of potential fire risk. Based on the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), formulation of Drought Factor is used just for calculating the drought today based on current weather conditions, and yesterday's drought index. However, to find out the factors of drought a day after, the data is needed about the weather. Therefore, we need an algorithm that can predict the dryness factor. So, the most significant fire potential can be predicted during the dry season. Moreover, daily prediction of the dry season is needed each day to conduct the best action then a qualified preventive measure can be carried out. The method used in this study is the backpropagation algorithm which has functions for calculating, testing and training the drought factors. By using empirical data, some data are trained and then tested until it can be concluded that 100% of the data already well recognized. Furthermore, some other data tested without training, then the result is 60% of the data match. In general, this algorithm shows promising results and can be applied more to complete several variables supporters.
Abstract
In this research we been estimated the survival function for data suffer from the disturbances and confusion of Iraq Household Socio-Economic Survey: IHSES II 2012 , to data from a five-year age groups follow the distribution of the Generalized Gamma: GG. It had been used two methods for the purposes of estimating and fitting which is the way the Principle of Maximizing Entropy: POME, and method of booting to nonparametric smoothing function for Kernel, to overcome the mathematical problems plaguing integrals contained in this distribution in particular of the integration of the incomplete gamma function, along with the use of traditional way in which is the Maximum Likelihood: ML. Where the comparison on t
... Show MoreMetal contents in vegetables are interesting because of issues related to food safety and potential health risks. The availability of these metals in the human body may perform many biochemical functions and some of them linked with various diseases at high levels. The current study aimed to evaluate the concentration of various metals in common local consumed vegetables using ICP-MS. The concentrations of metals in vegetables of tarragon, Bay laurel, dill, Syrian mesquite, vine leaves, thymes, arugula, basil, common purslane and parsley of this study were found to be in the range of, 76-778 for Al, 10-333 for B, 4-119 for Ba, 2812-24645 for Ca, 0.1-0.32 for Co, 201-464 for Fe, 3661-46400 for K, 0.31–1.
... Show MoreThis study aimed at identifying the extent to which the social worker used the techniques of group discussion in the professional practice with the groups of school activity in the schools of Tubas governorate in light of some variables (gender, years of experience, academic qualification). The analytical descriptive method was used due to its suitability for the objectives of the study. A questionnaire was designed to collect data that included (30) items, distributed in three areas .The validity and reliability of the tool were verified and then distributed to the study sample.
The results of the study showed that the highest averages were in the discussion stage domain, where the pre-discussion stage was m
... Show MoreThis paper aimed to investigate the effect of the height-to-length ratio of unreinforced masonry (URM) walls when loaded by a vertical load. The finite element (FE) method was implemented for modeling and analysis of URM wall. In this paper, ABAQUS, FE software with implicit solver was used to model and analysis URM walls subjected to a vertical load. In order to ensure the validity of Detailed Micro Model (DMM) in predicting the behavior of URM walls under vertical load, the results of the proposed model are compared with experimental results. Load-displacement relationship of the proposed numerical model is found of a good agreement with that of the published experimental results. Evidence shows that load-displacement curve obtained fro
... Show MoreThis paper studies the investment project evaluation under the condition of uncertainty. Evaluation of investment project under risk and uncertainty is possible to be carried out through application of various methods and techniques. The best known methods are : Risk-adjusted discount rate , certainty equivalent method , Sensitivity analysis and Simulation method The objective of this study is using the sensitivity analysis in evaluation Glass Bottles project in Anbar province under the condition of risk and uncertainty.
After applying sensitivity analysis we found that the glass bottles project sensitive to the following factors (cash flow, the cost of investment, and the pro
... Show MoreThe clinical spectrum of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL), an intracellular parasitic pathogen, ranges from a single sore healing to chronic crusty lesions with a manifestation of treatment resistance. The complicated interaction between Leishmania bodies and the early immune response, including innate and adaptive mechanisms, determines the evolution of nodules. This study examined the levels of the chemoattractant interleukin 8 (IL-8), pro-inflammatory nitric oxide (NO), and immunoregulatory macrophage inhibitory factor (MIF) in the serum of subjects recently diagnosed with cutaneous leishmaniasis, in parallel with patients being monitored during consecutive sodium stibogluconate (Pentostam) treatment. A total of 161 serum samples of newly di
... Show MoreBackground: This study evaluate the immunohistochemical expression profile of transforming growth factor beta-1 in inflamed gingival tissue of patients with gingivitis and chronic periodontitis compared to healthy subjects and, determine the correlation between this cytokine and the clinical periodontal parameters, intensity of inflammation and chronic periodontitis severity. Materials and methods: Gingival tissue specimens were taken from 23 chronic periodontitis patients, 20 gingivitis patients and 20 periodontally healthy subjects. The periodontal status was evaluated by dichotomous measurements of the clinical periodontal parameters (PLI, GI, BOP, PPD, CAL). The gingival specimens were fixed immediately in 10% formalin and processed ro
... Show MoreThe research discusses the need to find the innovative structures and methodologies for developing Human Capital (HC) in Iraqi Universities. One of the most important of these structures is Communities of Practice (CoPs) which contributes to develop HC by using learning, teaching and training through the conversion speed of knowledge and creativity into practice. This research has been used the comparative approach through employing the methodology of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) by using (Excel 2010 - Solver) as a field evidence to prove the role of CoPs in developing HC. In light of the given information, a researcher adopted on an archived preliminary data about (23) colleges at Mosul University as a deliberate sample for t
... Show MoreProvisions related to nails in Islamic Fiqh
The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of six thinking hats on creative thinking among 10th grade female students in Tulkarm district. The sample comprises two sections of 10th grade female students (n=80) in Adawiya secondary School, The two sections were divided into two groups; one as an experimental group which works with six thinking hats, and the second as control group that learns traditionally. Creative thinking exam was used to measure the creative thinking with reliability (0.88).
The results of the study have shown the following:
There were statistically significant differences at (α ≤ 0.05) in the creative thinking among 10th grade female student
... Show More