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Using Backpropagation to Predict Drought Factor in Keetch-Byram Drought Index

Forest fires continue to rise during the dry season and they are difficult to stop. In this case, high temperatures in the dry season can cause an increase in drought index that could potentially burn the forest every time. Thus, the government should conduct surveillance throughout the dry season. Continuous surveillance without the focus on a particular time becomes ineffective and inefficient because of preventive measures carried out without the knowledge of potential fire risk. Based on the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), formulation of Drought Factor is used just for calculating the drought today based on current weather conditions, and yesterday's drought index. However, to find out the factors of drought a day after, the data is needed about the weather. Therefore, we need an algorithm that can predict the dryness factor. So, the most significant fire potential can be predicted during the dry season. Moreover, daily prediction of the dry season is needed each day to conduct the best action then a qualified preventive measure can be carried out. The method used in this study is the backpropagation algorithm which has functions for calculating, testing and training the drought factors. By using empirical data, some data are trained and then tested until it can be concluded that 100% of the data already well recognized. Furthermore, some other data tested without training, then the result is 60% of the data match. In general, this algorithm shows promising results and can be applied more to complete several variables supporters.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering Science And Technology (jestec)
Predicting Municipal Sewage Effluent Quality Index Using Mathematical Models In The Al-Rustamiya Sewage Treatment Plant

Efficient management of treated sewage effluents protects the environment and reuse of municipal, industrial, agricultural and recreational as compensation for water shortages as a second source of water. This study was conducted to investigate the overall performance and evaluate the effluent quality from Al- Rustamiya sewage treatment plant (STP), Baghdad, Iraq by determining the effluent quality index (EQI). This assessment included daily records of major influent and effluent sewage parameters that were obtained from the municipal sewage plant laboratory recorded from January 2011 to December 2018. The result showed that the treated sewage effluent quality from STP was within the Iraqi quality standards (IQS) for disposal and t

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Novel Invasive Weed Optimization Algorithm (IWO) by Whale Optimization Algorithm(WOA) to solve Large Scale Optimization Problems

Abstract  

  In this work, two algorithms of Metaheuristic algorithms were hybridized. The first is Invasive Weed Optimization algorithm (IWO) it is a numerical stochastic optimization algorithm and the second is Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) it is an algorithm based on the intelligence of swarms and community intelligence. Invasive Weed Optimization Algorithm (IWO) is an algorithm inspired by nature and specifically from the colonizing weeds behavior of weeds, first proposed in 2006 by Mehrabian and Lucas. Due to their strength and adaptability, weeds pose a serious threat to cultivated plants, making them a threat to the cultivation process. The behavior of these weeds has been simulated and used in Invas

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 14 2023
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Applying Scikit-learn of Machine Learning to Predict Consumed Energy in Al-Khwarizmi College of Engineering, Baghdad, Iraq

Globally, buildings use about 40% of energy. Many elements, such as the physical properties of the structure, the efficiency of the cooling and heating systems, the activity of the occupants, and the building’s sustainability, affect the energy consumption of a building. It is really difficult to predict how much energy a building will need. To improve the building’s sustainability and create sustainable energy sources to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion, estimating the building's energy use is necessary. This paper explains the energy consumed in the lecture building of the Al-Khwarizmi College of Engineering, University of Baghdad (UOB), Baghdad, Iraq. The weather data and the building construction informati

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Estimation of Some Biomarkers and Cholesterol / HDL Ratio to Predict the Risk of Cardiovascular Disease in Rheumatoid Arthritis

Rheumatoid arthritis (AR) is one of the chronic diseases resulting in many complications such as cardiovascular disease (CVD). Any change in the lipid profiles and myocardial markers indicates cardiovascular disease risk, so this study is designed to monitor the pattern of lipid profiles and myocardial markers in newly diagnosed RA patients. Blood samples were collected from 70 Iraqi patients newly diagnosed with rheumatoid arthritis (male and female) and 30 healthy served as control. These individuals were aged 35-65 years. The serum samples were obtained to determine myocardial markers; included troponin, creatinine kinase (CK), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase GOT; and lipid profiles; such as choleste

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Forecasting The Wet and Dry Rainy Seasons in Mosul Using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)

Iraq suffers the continuing lack of water resources in generdwether it is surface or underearth water or rain. The study of rain has got the utmost importance in order to the rain direction in Iraq and in Mosul in particular and what it will be in future. It also shows the wet as well as the dry seasons and the possibility of expecting them and expecting their quantities in order to invest them and to keep this vital resource The research deals with predict the wet and dry rainy seasons in Mosul using (SPI) Standardized precipitation index extracted from conversion of Gamma distribution to standardized normal distribution , depending on data of monthly rain amounts for 1940-2013 . Results showed existence of 31 w

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 30 2014
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Formulation of New Equation to Estimate Productivity Index of Horizontal Wells

Significant advances in horizontal well drilling technology have been made in recent years. The conventional productivity equations for single phase flowing at steady state conditions have been used and solved using Microsoft Excel for various reservoir properties and different horizontal well lengths.
The deviation between the actual field data, and that obtained by the software based on conventional equations have been adjusted to introduce some parameters inserted in the conventional equation.
The new formula for calculating flow efficiency was derived and applied with the best proposed values of coefficients ψ=0.7 and ω= 1.4. The simulated results fitted the field data.
Various reservoir and field parameters including late

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 01 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Development and Assessment of Feed Forward Back Propagation Neural Network Models to Predict Sunshine Duration

         The duration of sunshine is one of the important indicators and one of the variables for measuring the amount of solar radiation collected in a particular area. Duration of solar brightness has been used to study atmospheric energy balance, sustainable development, ecosystem evolution and climate change. Predicting the average values of sunshine duration (SD) for Duhok city, Iraq on a daily basis using the approach of artificial neural network (ANN) is the focus of this paper. Many different ANN models with different input variables were used in the prediction processes. The daily average of the month, average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, wind direction, cloud level and atmosp

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 27 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) Program and Water Quality Index (WQI) to Assess and Manage Groundwater Quality in the City of Baghdad

Groundwater is an essential source because of its high quality and continuous availability characterize this water resource. Therefore, the study of groundwater has required more attention. The present study aims to assess and manage groundwater quality's suitability for various purposes through the Geographical Information System GIS and the Water Quality Index WQI. The study area is located in the city of Baghdad in central Iraq, with an approximate area of ​​900 , data were collected from the relevant official departments representing the locations of 97 wells of groundwater in the study area for the year 2019, as it included physicochemical parameters such as  pH, EC, TDS, Na, K, Mg, Ca, Cl,  , and &nbs

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 01 2022
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
Water Quality Status of Tigris River Using Index Analysis
Abstract<p>This study investigates the effects of Al-Doura oil refinery effluent, in Baghdad city, on the water quality of the Tigris River using the Canadian Water Quality Index (CCME WQI) and Rivers Maintaining System (1967). Water samples were collected monthly from Tigris River at three stations, which are Al-Muthanna Bridge (upstream), Al-Doura Refinery (point source), and Al–Zafaraniya city (downstream) from October 2020 to April 2021. Fourteen water quality parameters were studied, namely pH (6.50-8.10), Water Temperature (WT) (5.00-27.00 °C), Electrical Conductivity (EC) (877.00-1192.00 μs/cm), Dissolved Oxygen (DO) (5.03-7.57 mg/L), Biological Oxygen demand (BOD) (0.53-2.23 mg/L), Total Dissolved S</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Sun Jan 04 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Dense breast as a risk factor in breast malignancy

Background: One of the strongest risk factors for breast cancer is high breast density, relatively little fat in the breast and more connective and glandular tissue.
Objectives: this study aims to measure risk of increase breast density in correlation of CA breast & compare our results with results in other population, to compare the performance of ultrasonography and mammography in measuring breast density according to BIRDS system
Materials &methods: The study included 45 females .Measuring risk of increase breast density in correlation of CA breast & comparing the performance of ultrasonography and mammography in measuring breast density according to BIRADS system.
Results : there is stron

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