يتكون الانحدار المقسم من عدة أقسام تفصل بينها نقاط انتماء مختلفة، فتظهر حالة عدم التجانس الناشئة من عملية فصل الأقسام ضمن عينة البحث. ويهتم هذا البحث في تقدير موقع نقطة التغيير بين الأقسام وتقدير معلمات الأنموذج، واقتراح طريقة تقدير حصينة ومقارنتها مع بعض الطرائق المستعملة في الانحدار الخطي المقسم. وقد تم استعمال أحد الطرائق التقليدية (طريقة Muggeo) لإيجاد مقدرات الإمكان الأعظم بالأسلوب التكراري للأنموذج ونقطة التغيير معاً، واستعمال أحد الطرائق الحصينة (طريقة IRWm) والتي تعتمد على استعمال تقنية M-estimator الحصين في أسلوب التقسيم وباستعمال دالة الوزن Tukey. وتكمن مساهمتنا في هذا البحث في اقتراح استعمال تقنية S-estimator الحصينة وباستعمال دالة الوزن Tukey، للحصول على طريقة حصينة ضد حالات انتهاك شرط التوزيع الطبيعي للأخطاء العشوائية أو تأثير القيم الشاذة، وستدعى هذه الطريقة IRWs. وقد تم تطبيق الطرائق المذكورة آنفاً على مجموعة بيانات حقيقية متعلقة بحمولة قاع نهر دجلة/ مدينة بغداد كمتغير استجابة وكمية تصريف المياه كمتغير توضيحي. وقد أظهرت نتائج المقارنة أفضلية الطريقة المقترحة.
In this paper, the maximum likelihood estimator and the Bayes estimator of the reliability function for negative exponential distribution has been derived, then a Monte –Carlo simulation technique was employed to compare the performance of such estimators. The integral mean square error (IMSE) was used as a criterion for this comparison. The simulation results displayed that the Bayes estimator performed better than the maximum likelihood estimator for different samples sizes.
In this article, performing and deriving the probability density function for Rayleigh distribution by using maximum likelihood estimator method and moment estimator method, then crating the crisp survival function and crisp hazard function to find the interval estimation for scale parameter by using a linear trapezoidal membership function. A new proposed procedure used to find the fuzzy numbers for the parameter by utilizing ( to find a fuzzy numbers for scale parameter of Rayleigh distribution. applying two algorithms by using ranking functions to make the fuzzy numbers as crisp numbers. Then computed the survival functions and hazard functions by utilizing the real data application.
This paper concerns with deriving and estimating the reliability of the multicomponent system in stress-strength model R(s,k), when the stress and strength are identical independent distribution (iid), follows two parameters Exponentiated Pareto Distribution(EPD) with the unknown shape and known scale parameters. Shrinkage estimation method including Maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), has been considered. Comparisons among the proposed estimators were made depending on simulation based on mean squared error (MSE) criteria.
The water vapor is one of the constituent elements of the rain and the superiority
of its importance in the study of climate because it is the basis on which depends all
the different aspects of condensation. The purpose of research is to analyze the time
series of the Baghdad station andan analyze these series to see whether there is a
relationship between these two variables. Obtained the data used in this research
from the National Center for Environmental Prediction for the period from 1948 to
2011. The use of statistical criteria included linear regression and Mann Kandal test
to find the link. The results of time series monthly presence decrease in rainfall and
all months except October, either the results o
A reliability system of the multi-component stress-strength model R(s,k) will be considered in the present paper ,when the stress and strength are independent and non-identically distribution have the Exponentiated Family Distribution(FED) with the unknown shape parameter α and known scale parameter λ equal to two and parameter θ equal to three. Different estimation methods of R(s,k) were introduced corresponding to Maximum likelihood and Shrinkage estimators. Comparisons among the suggested estimators were prepared depending on simulation established on mean squared error (MSE) criteria.
In this paper, estimation of system reliability of the multi-components in stress-strength model R(s,k) is considered, when the stress and strength are independent random variables and follows the Exponentiated Weibull Distribution (EWD) with known first shape parameter θ and, the second shape parameter α is unknown using different estimation methods. Comparisons among the proposed estimators through Monte Carlo simulation technique were made depend on mean squared error (MSE) criteria
In this paper, some estimators for the unknown shape parameter and reliability function of Basic Gompertz distribution have been obtained, such as Maximum likelihood estimator and Bayesian estimators under Precautionary loss function using Gamma prior and Jefferys prior. Monte-Carlo simulation is conducted to compare mean squared errors (MSE) for all these estimators for the shape parameter and integrated mean squared error (IMSE's) for comparing the performance of the Reliability estimators. Finally, the discussion is provided to illustrate the results that summarized in tables.
In the current study, the researchers have been obtained Bayes estimators for the shape and scale parameters of Gamma distribution under the precautionary loss function, assuming the priors, represented by Gamma and Exponential priors for the shape and scale parameters respectively. Moment, Maximum likelihood estimators and Lindley’s approximation have been used effectively in Bayesian estimation.
Based on Monte Carlo simulation method, those estimators are compared depending on the mean squared errors (MSE’s). The results show that, the performance of Bayes estimator under precautionary loss function with Gamma and Exponential priors is better than other estimates in all cases.
In this paper, a Monte Carlo Simulation technique is used to compare the performance of the standard Bayes estimators of the reliability function of the one parameter exponential distribution .Three types of loss functions are adopted, namely, squared error loss function (SELF) ,Precautionary error loss function (PELF) andlinear exponential error loss function(LINEX) with informative and non- informative prior .The criterion integrated mean square error (IMSE) is employed to assess the performance of such estimators
In this paper, we derived an estimators and parameters of Reliability and Hazard function of new mix distribution ( Rayleigh- Logarithmic) with two parameters and increasing failure rate using Bayes Method with Square Error Loss function and Jeffery and conditional probability random variable of observation. The main objective of this study is to find the efficiency of the derived of Bayesian estimator compared to the to the Maximum Likelihood of this function using Simulation technique by Monte Carlo method under different Rayleigh- Logarithmic parameter and sample sizes. The consequences have shown that Bayes estimator has been more efficient than the maximum likelihood estimator in all sample sizes with application