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مقترح اسلوب IRWs الحصين لتقدير أنموذج الانحدار المقسم لحركة حمولة قاع نهر دجلة ونقطة التغيير لكمية تصريف المياه عند مدينة بغداد

              يتكون الانحدار المقسم من عدة أقسام تفصل بينها نقاط انتماء مختلفة، فتظهر حالة عدم التجانس الناشئة من عملية فصل الأقسام ضمن عينة البحث. ويهتم هذا البحث في تقدير موقع نقطة التغيير بين الأقسام وتقدير معلمات الأنموذج، واقتراح طريقة تقدير حصينة ومقارنتها مع بعض الطرائق المستعملة في الانحدار الخطي المقسم. وقد تم استعمال أحد الطرائق التقليدية (طريقة Muggeo) لإيجاد مقدرات الإمكان الأعظم بالأسلوب التكراري للأنموذج ونقطة التغيير معاً، واستعمال أحد الطرائق الحصينة (طريقة IRWm) والتي تعتمد على استعمال تقنية M-estimator الحصين في أسلوب التقسيم وباستعمال دالة الوزن Tukey.  وتكمن مساهمتنا في هذا البحث في اقتراح استعمال تقنية S-estimator الحصينة وباستعمال دالة الوزن Tukey، للحصول على طريقة حصينة  ضد حالات انتهاك شرط التوزيع الطبيعي للأخطاء العشوائية أو تأثير القيم الشاذة، وستدعى هذه الطريقة IRWs. وقد تم تطبيق الطرائق المذكورة آنفاً على مجموعة بيانات حقيقية متعلقة بحمولة قاع نهر دجلة/ مدينة بغداد كمتغير استجابة وكمية تصريف المياه كمتغير توضيحي. وقد أظهرت نتائج المقارنة أفضلية الطريقة المقترحة.  

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 27 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Bayesian Estimation for the Parameters and Reliability Function of Basic Gompertz Distribution under Squared Log Error Loss Function

In this paper, some estimators for the unknown shape parameters and reliability function of Basic Gompertz distribution were obtained, such as Maximum likelihood estimator and some Bayesian estimators under Squared log error loss function by using Gamma and Jefferys priors. Monte-Carlo simulation was conducted to compare the performance of all estimates of the shape parameter and Reliability function, based on mean squared errors (MSE) and integrated mean squared errors (IMSE's), respectively. Finally, the discussion is provided to illustrate the results that are summarized in tables.

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 24 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Estimate the Parameters and Related Probability Functions for Data of the Patients of Lymph Glands Cancer via Birnbaum-Saunders Model

 In this paper,we estimate the parameters and related probability functions, survival function, cumulative distribution function , hazard function(failure rate) and failure  (death) probability function(pdf) for two parameters Birnbaum-Saunders distribution which is fitting the complete data for the patients of  lymph glands cancer. Estimating the parameters (shape and scale) using (maximum likelihood , regression quantile and shrinkage) methods and then compute the value of mentioned related probability  functions depending on sample from real data which describe the duration of survivor for patients who suffer from the lymph glands cancer based on diagnosis of disease or the inter of patients in a hospital for perio

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Comparison of Some Suggested Estimators Based on Differencing Technique in the Partial Linear Model Using Simulation

In this paper new methods were presented based on technique of differences which is the difference- based modified jackknifed generalized ridge regression estimator(DMJGR) and difference-based generalized  jackknifed ridge regression estimator(DGJR), in estimating the parameters of linear part of the partially linear model. As for the nonlinear part represented by the nonparametric function, it was estimated using Nadaraya Watson smoother. The partially linear model was compared using these proposed methods with other estimators based on differencing technique through the MSE comparison criterion in simulation study.

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 30 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Boundary Exponential Gradient Reduced Order Detectability in Neumann Conditions

     This work, aims to study and examine the description f the gradient reduced order-strategic sensors of type boundary exponential (-strategic sensors) for completion gradient  order-detectability of type boundary exponential (-detectability). Thus, this concept is linked to an estimator in distributed parameter systems (DPSS) in Neumann problem. So,we present numerous consequences regarding to diverse kinds of information, region  and conditions of boundary region to allow existence of -detectable systems. In addition,we have estimated at the junction interface that the interior solution isharmonizedwith the exterior solution for -detectable and, we give the relationship between this concept and sensors structures. F

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 30 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Predicting COVID-19 in Iraq using Frequent Weighting for Polynomial Regression in Optimization Curve Fitting

     The worldwide pandemic Coronavirus (Covid-19) is a new viral disease that spreads mostly through nasal discharge and saliva from the lips while coughing or sneezing. This highly infectious disease spreads quickly and can overwhelm healthcare systems if not controlled. However, the employment of machine learning algorithms to monitor analytical data has a substantial influence on the speed of decision-making in some government entities.        ML algorithms trained on labeled patients’ symptoms cannot discriminate between diverse types of diseases such as COVID-19. Cough, fever, headache, sore throat, and shortness of breath were common symptoms of many bacterial and viral diseases.

This research focused on the nu

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Modeling of Sediment Transport Around A Water Intake In Tigris River – Baghdad Using A Numerical 2d Model

     Understanding sedimentation behavior and its transport capacity in the Tigris River is of significant importance owing to the detrimental consequences caused by it. This study investigates the sediment amounts transported along the reach of the Tigris River in Baghdad. The CCHE2D model which is a common tool developed by the National Center for Computational Hydrological Science and Engineering (NCCHE) was applied to investigate the flow pattern and sediment amounts within 7 km reach. The model was initially calibrated and validated under steady-state conditions at the Sarai gauging station (upstream) and its performance was evaluated around the Abu Nawas water treatment plant (downstream). The result shows that the water surfac

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Detecting Outliers In Multiple Linear Regression

It is well-known that the existence of outliers in the data will adversely affect the efficiency of estimation and results of the current study. In this paper four methods will be studied to detect outliers for the multiple linear regression model in two cases :  first, in real data; and secondly,  after adding the outliers to data and the attempt to detect it. The study is conducted for samples with different sizes, and uses three measures for  comparing between these methods . These three measures are : the mask, dumping and standard error of the estimate.

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 05 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Estimating the Population Mean in Stratified Random Sampling Using Combined Regression with the Presence of Outliers

In this research, the covariance estimates were used to estimate the population mean in the stratified random sampling and combined regression estimates. were compared by employing the robust variance-covariance matrices estimates with combined regression estimates by employing the traditional variance-covariance matrices estimates when estimating the regression parameter, through the two efficiency criteria (RE) and mean squared error (MSE). We found that robust estimates significantly improved the quality of combined regression estimates by reducing the effect of outliers using robust covariance and covariance matrices estimates (MCD, MVE) when estimating the regression parameter. In addition, the results of the simulation study proved

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Different Methods for Estimating Location Parameter & Scale Parameter for Extreme Value Distribution

      In this study, different methods were used for estimating location parameter  and scale parameter for extreme value distribution, such as maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) , method of moment  estimation (ME),and approximation  estimators based on percentiles which is called white method in estimation, as the extreme value distribution is one of exponential distributions. Least squares estimation (OLS) was used, weighted least squares estimation (WLS), ridge regression estimation (Rig), and adjusted ridge regression estimation (ARig) were used. Two parameters for expected value to the percentile  as estimation for distribution f

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 08 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A comparison among Different Methods for Estimating Regression Parameters with Autocorrelation Problem under Exponentially Distributed Error

Multiple linear regressions are concerned with studying and analyzing the relationship between the dependent variable and a set of explanatory variables. From this relationship the values of variables are predicted. In this paper the multiple linear regression model and three covariates were studied in the presence of the problem of auto-correlation of errors when the random error distributed the distribution of exponential. Three methods were compared (general least squares, M robust, and Laplace robust method). We have employed the simulation studies and calculated the statistical standard mean squares error with sample sizes (15, 30, 60, 100). Further we applied the best method on the real experiment data representing the varieties of

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