This paper presents a grey model GM(1,1) of the first rank and a variable one and is the basis of the grey system theory , This research dealt  properties of grey model and a set of methods to estimate parameters of the grey model GM(1,1)  is the least square Method (LS) , weighted least square method (WLS), total least square method (TLS) and gradient descent method  (DS). These methods were compared based on two types of standards: Mean square error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and after comparison using simulation the best method was applied to real data represented by the rate of consumption of the two types of oils a Heavy fuel (HFO) and diesel fuel (D.O) and has been applied several tests to

Under cyclic loading, aluminum alloys exhibit less fatigue life than steel alloys of similar strength and this is considered as Achilles's heel of such alloys. A nanosecond fiber laser was used to apply high speed laser shock peening process on thin aluminum plates in order to enhance the fatigue life by introducing compressive residual stresses. The effect of three working parameters namely the pulse repetition rate (PRR), spot size (ω) and scanning speed (v) on limiting the fatigue failure was investigated. The optimum results, represented by the longer fatigue life, were at PRR of 22.5 kHz, ω of 0.04 mm and at both v's of 200 and 500 mm/sec. The research yielded significant results represented by a maximum percentage increase in the fa

This paper presents an investigation to the effect of the forming speed on healing voids that inhabit at various size in an ingot. The study was performed by using finite element method with bilinear isotropic material option, circular type voids were considered. The closure index was able to predict the minimum press force necessary to consolidate voids and the reduction. The simulation was carried out, on circular cross-section lead specials containing a central void of different size. At a time with a flat die, different ratio of inside to outside radius was taken with different speed to find the best result of void closure.

It is commonly known that Euler-Bernoulli’s thin beam theorem is not applicable whenever a nonlinear distribution of strain/stress occurs, such as in deep beams, or the stress distribution is discontinuous. In order to design the members experiencing such distorted stress regions, the Strut-and-Tie Model (STM) could be utilized. In this paper, experimental investigation of STM technique for three identical small-scale deep beams was conducted. The beams were simply supported and loaded statically with a concentrated load at the mid span of the beams. These deep beams had two symmetrical openings near the application point of loading. Both the deep beam, where the stress distribution cannot be assumed linear, and the ex

The present study deals with the story of Epidemic in two literary works issued in the same year (1947). One of them is a novel titled "Plague" written by the French writer Alber Kamo, the second is a poem of the Iraqi poetess Nazik Al-Malaekah. The research reflects a contrastive study of the war vision in the two works as both writers used science to serve literature by using Epidemic as a metaphor to refer to the dangers that the societies faced.

The problem of the present research lies in answering the question about the reason that makes the two writers use metaphor while narrating the issues of the society instead of mentioning them directly and illuminate what implications do the narrative style of Epidemic story have and

The theory of probabilistic programming  may be conceived in several different ways. As a method of programming it analyses the implications of probabilistic variations in the parameter space of linear or nonlinear programming model. The generating mechanism of such probabilistic variations in the economic models may be due to incomplete information about changes in demand, pro­duction and technology, specification errors about the econometric relations presumed for different economic agents, uncertainty of various sorts and the consequences of imperfect aggregation or disaggregating of economic variables. In this Research we discuss the probabilistic programming problem when the coefficient b_i is random variable

Scheduling considered being one of the most fundamental and essential bases of the project management. Several methods are used for project scheduling such as CPM, PERT and GERT. Since too many uncertainties are involved in methods for estimating the duration and cost of activities, these methods lack the capability of modeling practical projects. Although schedules can be developed for construction projects at early stage, there is always a possibility for unexpected material or technical shortages during construction stage. The objective of this research is to build a fuzzy mathematical model including time cost tradeoff and resource constraints analysis to be applied concurrently. The proposed model has been formulated using fuzzy the

The paper is devoted to solve nth order linear delay integro-differential equations of convolution type (DIDE's-CT) using collocation method with the aid of B-spline functions. A new algorithm with the aid of Matlab language is derived to treat numerically three types (retarded, neutral and mixed) of nth order linear DIDE's-CT using B-spline functions and Weddle rule for calculating the required integrals for these equations. Comparison between approximated and exact results has been given in test examples with suitable graphing for every example for solving three types of linear DIDE's-CT of different orders for conciliated the accuracy of the results of the proposed method.

We investigate mathematical models of the Hepatitis B and C viruses in the study, considering vaccination effects into account. By utilising fractional and ordinary differential equations, we prove the existence of equilibrium and the well-posedness of the solution. We prove worldwide stability with respect to the fundamental reproduction number. Our numerical techniques highlight the biological relevance and highlight the effect of fractional derivatives on temporal behaviour. We illustrate the relationships among susceptible, immunised, and infected populations in our epidemiological model. Using comprehensive numerical simulations, we analyse the effects of fractional derivatives and highlight solution behaviours. Subsequent investigatio