تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
Foreign trade receives a good deal of economists' attention for its active contribution to economic growth, and imports of goods and services that could not be produced locally constitute an important share of the local economy. Agricultural imports constitute an important share of the total imports due to their role in fulfilling the needs of local markets; however, the agricultural sector in Iraq contributes no more than a limited share of the country's need, which has encouraged the import of a variety of fruits, vegetables and strategic crops and different types of red and white meat. For the sake of identifying the factors affecting the demand on agricultural imports in Iraq, the following factors has been analyzed: th
... Show Moreشغلت نظرية العدل الإلهي بال الأديب العراقي القديم، مما جعلته يثير عبر نصوصه الأدبية كثير من التساؤلات حول عدالة الإلهة، التي يعبدها ويقدم لها الهدايا وتساؤلاته هذه دفعت بالباحث إلى اختيارها عنوانا لموضوعه، إلا أن الدراسة ستختصر على نصوص معينة، والسبب في ذلك أنها كانت الرائدة في هذا الجانب، وفي اللحظة التي ينتقي فيها العدل الإلهي وتتحول الإلهة إلى كلاب تلهث وراء غرائزها، ذهبنا وراء الأسباب التي قادت إلى فقد
... Show MoreIn this research, we discussed and analyzed the relationship between oil prices and the U.S. dollar exchange rate in Iraq. The study adopted the descriptive analysis and econometrics analysis. The descriptive analysis refers to the rise (fall) in crude oil price lead to appreciate (depreciate) in the Iraqi dinar exchange rate, though the channel of the international reserves. The econometrics analysis is based on monthly data covered the period (December/2002 – December/2011), the unit root test, co-integration test, vector error correction model, and Granger causality test have been adopted in this research to check the existence and direction of this relationship. The results refer to the lon
... Show Moreلكل دولة في هذا العالم خطابها السياسي والذي يحدد سياستها الداخلية والخارجية، وهي سياسة ثابتة تنطلق من مفاهيم وبرامج وثوابت تخدم مصالحها الحيوية، لكون الخطاب السياسي ليس مجرد كلام عابر في عالم السياسة الدولية وانما هو ثوابت مهمة يحدد توجهات هذه الدولة او تلك ويحدد دورها الدولي وطبيعة العلاقة مع البلدان الاخرى ومنها الدول المجاورة لها. شهد العراق بعد العام 2003 تحديات جديدة تمثلت بتغليب خطابات الطائفية والكراه
... Show MoreIt is obvious that the constitutional- political structures which has been emerged in Iraq after the occupation in 2003 frame worked by many sectarian, ethnic, tribal and political orientations, pushing forewords to escalating the contradictions between social- political powers, however, these changes unfortunately result not just destroy and taking apart the political regime and his authority, but the state and his institutions as well, although, did not stamped as wise and rational change for better future to new Iraq and its political, civil and military institutions. Finally, as quick as Iraq start to bisects to sectarian, ethnic and national components according to the new political – social components of Iraq. Indeed, what is req
... Show MoreAbstract:
The paper aims to measure an aggregated banking stability index reflecting the degree of stability of the banking system to help policy makers to take the necessary actions to avoid financial crises facing banks and to achieve a banking system with high efficiency in terms of banking risk.
Therefore, the problem of paper is that the Central Bank of Iraq did not seek until 2016 to build a aggregated index for the purpose of identifying the stability of the banking situation in Iraq, but rather on the adoption of scattered indicators, which depend on the mechanism of relative changes in those indicators for the purpose of identifying the situation of b
... Show MoreThe climate is one of the natural factors affecting agriculture, and the success of the cultivation of any agricultural crop depends on the nature of the prevailing climate in the area of its cultivation. If the main elements of climate: temperature, rain and humidity, affect the various agricultural activities that can be practiced, and the stages of growth of agricultural crops and also determine the areas of spread. When the climatic requirements of any crop are well available, its cultivation is successful and comfortable. The research starts from the problem of spatial variation of date production spatially in the study area and the reason for choosing dates because of its economic importance, so the research will be based on
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Economic intelligence represents a modern field of knowledge that has been and is still the focus of many studies and research, including this research that deals with economic intelligence and its role in strengthening Iraqi national security - an analytical study. Economic development and economic development without security, and in a situation such as that of Iraq, which is still suffering from conflicts, conflicts and the effects of wars, as well as the unstable conditions in its regional environment, the directions of that relationship cannot be determined except through the availability of accurate information, indicators, full knowledge of reality and the pos
... Show MoreThe linguistic meaning of the verse in the Arabic dictionaries applies very much to the reality of rent and its effect. This is true of economic growth as a continuous increase in real per capita income in addition to the same thing. Therefore, development does not necessarily achieve a comprehensive and structural increase of the various economic sectors. As the rent came in the sense of a terrible land open Maim any fertilized. And the camel is a ma'aya and a ra'i: that is, it goes in the pasture and returns itself. This is similar to the extraction of oil after it is ready for investment and earn its revenue as soon as it exists or is extracted by external parties. If the rent is first linked to agriculture, especially the fertile lan
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