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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Application of GIS technique in the studies on fish assemblages in Shatt Al-Arab River, Basrah, Iraq
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The present study has examined the spatiotemporal varieties of the demographics of the Shatt Al-Arab River fishes and their relation to some ecological components. The aim is to forecast these groups in the unexplored parts of the waterway with an emphasis on environmental indices of diversity. Three sites in the river were selected as an observation and study of these species, which lasted from March 2019 to February 2020, the study dealt with factors affecting fishes, as Water Temperature (WT), Dissolved Oxygen (DO), Potential Hydrogen Ion (pH), Salinity (Sal), and Transparency (Tra). Gill nets, cast nets, hooks, and hand nets were adopted to collecting fish. The results indicated that the fish population comprises 60 species represent

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measuring of accounting conservatism practice in companies listed on Iraq stock exchange
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   The research aims to measure the accounting conservatism practice of listed companies in the Iraq stock exchange using Basu model to measure the degree of accounting conservatism in a sample of companies of (21) companies for the period from 2007 to 2011, the researcher found that most of the listed companies in the market exercised accounting conservatism when measurement and disclosure of the result of the activity and financial position and there is a variation in the degree of accounting conservatism between economic sectors , which included banking , investment , insurance , industry , agriculture , tourism and hotels.

   Because the practice of accounting conservatism properly

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of monetary policy in achieving economic stability and growth in Iraq for the period (2004-2011)
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The objective of this research to analyze the effectiveness of monetary policy in achieving economic stability and growth for the period 2004-2011 ،This period of time saw a fundamental shift in monetary policy after the issuing new law the Central Bank of the full independence of the monetary authority ،This is Prompt the monetary authority to bring about a change in the philosophy and objectives and the tools used to achieve the desired  goals ،Which give them the ability to control the size of the money supply and to achieve price stability Indeed، Monetary policy has been able to achieve the golden triangle of economic stability ،Consisted of staff، exchange rate stability and low and stable general level of prices

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 01 2014
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Political events in Iraq after 2003 and the impact of belonging and awareness in contemporary Iraqi composition
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الاحداث السياسية في العراق بعد 2003 وأثر الانتماء والوعي في التشكيل العراقي المعاصر

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Evaluation of Physical Chemical and Biological Characteristics of Underground Wells in Badra City, Iraq
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The quality of groundwater should be improved by keeping safe water sources from contaminants in protective way by doing regular measuring and checkup before it supplied for usage. Private Wells do not receive the same services that wells supplying the public do. Well owners are responsible for protecting their drinking water. This work was carried out in Badra city, Iraq from December 2017 to May 2018, six wells water were investigated to determine the general characteristics of wells as well as studying the effect of environmental factors on the quality of water. The average of six wells were eleven parameters that is out of permissible limits were EC, Sal., Alk., TH, TDS, Na, Ca, Cl, SO4, Fe, Zn (4402-5183 /cm, 2.76-3.9 ppt

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Role of Strategic audit in detection of financial corruption cases in Iraq - Proposed Framework
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This research focuses on detecting the financial corruption cases in Iraq in light of adoption the strategic audit, the paper deals with the problem of the proliferation corruption cases particularly financial in Iraq and dramatically in the presence of audit and control devices as well as inspection and integrity devices, which indicates the existence of deficiencies and weaknesses in those devices in the implementation of audit and control functions in order to detect the corruption cases in the economic units in Iraq.

Stems objective of this research through the provision of approach of strategic audit concepts and indicate the extent importance of adopting of strategic audit as a means to detect the f

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Evaluation of Some Trace Elements Pollution in Sediments of the Tigris River in Wasit Governorate, Iraq
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The main objectives of present study are to evaluate the trace elements pollution in the sediment of the Tigris River and drainage canals in Wasit Governorate, Iraq. Assessment of trace elements pollutants were conducted for 18 sediment samples collected in March 2017. Trace elements were analyzed in sediment Tigris River samples in Wasit Governorate. This metal pollution was evaluated using geo-accumulation (I-geo) index, Contamination Factor (CF) and Pollution Load Index (PLI). According to  these statistical indices, the sediments collected from Tigris River in the study area are highly polluted with Titanium (71.9 ppm), Nickel (226.6 ppm) Chromium (425.2 ppm), Cadmium (2ppm) and Molybdenum (15.8 ppm) while  the sediments&nb

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 16 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Technological Literacy in Educational Programs in The Department of Accounting: As one of the Resources of Human Development
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Education is considered the corner stone of all nations development. It is the principal way for the development of human sources and the most achievements of the age due to the knowledge of these resources .                                           

   As its active role which accounting departments implement in Iraq universities , (public and private) through their teaching programs , they aim to supply labour-market with qualified cadre graduated as accountants auditors , tax auditors , financial analysts , ac

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 20 2019
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
The authority of the president in the successive regimes in Iraq in the time - span 1920-2003
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Abstract The success of the system of government in any country needs to have a handle on the amount of power efficiency , capacity , capability and wisdom, Iraq has gone through since its inception through several stages of time, namely: The first stage: which ran from August 23, 1921 until July 14, 1958 and was ruling monarchy (rule of the royal family) and punishing power of political elites both of them and works access to power without taking into consideration the laws and principles of the Constitution, and as a result of the inability of civilian powers and political parties access to power to grant that army officers regulatory and disciplinary specifications as well as possessing arms and overthrow the rule of the minority coup

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 20 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Babylon Center For Humanities Studies
Reflection of Zionism in the literature of the Jews of Iraq ... Read in the novel "The Dove Flyer" by Elie Amir
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The upbringing of Yehuda Amichai and the conditions he lived in had a great influence on his deep sense of pain, which made him think of death and suicide. Especially after the Nazis came to power in Germany, and his emigration with his family. Amichai searched for love throughout his life, and his failure was one of the most important factors affecting his psyche, which is A deep influence that made him live in harsh and painful pains that broke him, and prevented her from achieving his ambitions in life.Dramatic texts are characterized by repetition in writing and presentation. It is a textual discourse that has two advantages, first, that it can be read as a literary text like all other literary texts, and second, that it can be consider

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