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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 03 2020
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Using the general budget for the year 2019 to achieve sustainable development in Iraq
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The public budget is on the same time an art and a science .As an accountable science it seeks balance between public income and public expenditure for an accountable year. And as an accountable art it seeks to achieve economic balance by distributing equitable income in order to reach sustainable development .This is the optimal use of all natural and human resources to address scarcity of natural resources facing the increase need of human resources by spending on education, health, environment, housing, agriculture and industry to achieve social justice for the current generation and future generations. Since the first budget in Iraq on 1921 an accounting budget, is balancing the sections and items has been adopted and since the publi

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Reality of Agricultural Policies and Their Role in Achieving Sustainable Agricultural Development in Iraq
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   The Agricultural Policy is one of the most important tools adopted by the state to guide its economic and social activities through the delivery of suitable agricultural commodities to the consumer and in return to deliver agricultural inputs to the agricultural producers at the lowest possible cost to contribute in achieving a profit that helps the agricultural product to continue in the production process with the same efficiency and ambition. So as to help increase the contribution of the agricultural sector to GDP and achieve the best picture of sustainable agricultural development.

The research aimed at identifying the reality of agricultural policies and their role in achieving sustaina

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 12 2010
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
The stage of change and institution-building and its impact on the structure of housing policy in Iraq
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The research examines the reality of the housing sector in Iraq and the stage of change and institution-building, which is increasingly challenging to respond to development needs. The legal legislation in Iraq over the last five years indicates a significant shift towards decentralization, with powers and services being delegated from federal ministries to regional levels Localization and growth in cities and urban centers is an added factor that requires responses from local governments to strengthen the capacity of their institutions to engage in national policy debate at the re
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Publication Date
Mon Jan 28 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Relation Ship and Effect Of Jet Stream in Anti-Ciyclone in Influencing The Climate Of Iraq
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This study aimed to statement jet stream and its impact in the anti-cyclone affecting the climate of Iraq. Through the use of simple correlation coefficient ( Pearson ) that there is a very strong relationship between high- Siberian and both of the jet stream especially during the winter or over the stations of North . Therefore we, observe the relationship be significant in most of the winter months , spring and autumn . Statistically significant , but are different between station and another station , while the study come to another Anti-ciyclon have a real ,significant and statistically relationship corrclation . But this relationship is less than which found in are much less it with the Siberian high , it depends on the type of stat

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Dumping Policy & Its Impact In The Development of Agricultural Production In Iraq (2003- 2009)
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Dumping policy considered as one of the policies occurs severe damages to the developing countries apparently this is happens due to the potential weakness in (productive, technical, legislative, legal institutions) comparing with other developed countries who are members in WTO.

Iraq consider as one of the developing countries that has been effected by the dumping policy, the events in Iraq since downfall of the formal regime, and the allied forces domination of Iraq have all together accelerated in the apace of deterioration , particularly , after the temporary coalition authority  has forced Iraq to adopt a free foreign trade policy& exclusion of the state from the market mechanism & to consolidate import and deac

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2006
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
التعليم المحاسبي الجامعي في العراق: دراسة تحليلية في ضؤ التغير الراديكالي
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Publication Date
Wed Oct 17 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The requirements of agricultural investment in Iraq in light of his accession Of the World Trade Organization
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Abstract              
          Agricultural investment is one of the main requirements in most economies of the world for its importance in the development of the agricultural sector through the agricultural and technological infrastructure and agricultural research, as well as its impact on most economic, social and service activities, especially if managed and employed scientifically, which generates income and productive capacities and services and new commodities, Unemployed as agricultural investments in Iraq fell significantly after 2003 due to economic, political, social

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 08 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The changes in the thickness of 1000 – 500 MB and it effects the climate of Iraq
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This research paper is about synoptic climate specifically with in the upper air layers
using upper air layers maps analysis which are maps of thickness for the level 1000 – 500
MB, that their high average ranges between 100 – 5600 M above surface. This research paper
focuses on studying special and temporal variations of the atmosphere thickness above Iraqaccording
to this study, it is concluded that atmosphere thickness above Iraq increases
towards south with an average of 100 M as compared with north of Iraq. Regarding the
temporal variations, it is concluded that atmosphere thickness during hot months. In July, for
example, the atmosphere thickness becomes thicker than in January with an average of
(250)M

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 19 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Game Theory to Determine the Optimal Strategy for the Transportation Sector in Iraq
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In this paper, game theory was used and applied to the transport sector in Iraq, as this sector includes two axes, the public transport axis and the second axis the private transport axis, as each of these axes includes several types of transport, namely (sea transport, air transport, land transport, transport by rail, port transport) and the travel and tourism sector, as public transport lacks this sector, as the competitive advantage matrix for the transport sector was formed and after applying the MinMax-MaxMin principle to the matrix in all its stages, it was found that there was an equilibrium point except for the last stage where the equilibrium point was not available Therefore, the use of the linear programming method was

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Mottos Of Opposition Movements In Iraq During The Umayyad Period and Their Religious and Political Indications
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Mottos Of Opposition Movements In iraq during the umayyad period and their religious and political indications - al shia and al khawarij

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