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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Impact of the Adoption of IAS.1 on Improving the Qualitative Characteristics Using Financial Indicators - An Applied study
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The international financial accounting and reporting standards IFRS/IAS represent the set of rules and foundations that the economic entity must follow in the measurement, presentation, and disclosure of the elements of the financial statements, the implementation of adopting the international financial reporting standards contributes to improving the qualitative characteristics of accounting information, so the current research aims to explain the role of adopting the International Accounting Standard (IAS) in improving the qualitative characteristics as well as analyzing the impact of the adoption of IAS.1 in improving the qualitative characteristics of accounting information within the financi

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 04 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of agricultural insurance in the prevention of financing risks in the form of slam : "An Empirical Study on Shikan Insurance and Reinsurance Company
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The aim of this research is to introduce agricultural insurance, to define financing in the form of salam and the role of agricultural insurance in the prevention of risks to agricultural finance operations in the form of salam by verifying the hypotheses through which to reach the results, including the imposition of risks for agricultural finance in the form of salam, The study of agricultural finance in the form of salm, the deductive approach to the development of the problem of research and hypotheses, and the inductive method to extrapolate the results through analysis and brother The researcher concluded that agricultural insurance works to bridge the risks facing agricultural finance in the form of the ladder in cases of

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 23 2023
Journal Name
Sciences Journal Of Physical Education
Individual analysis of kinetic response variables according to the measurement of the H7 system for the best jumping players in the national basketball team 2021
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The skill scale in most of sport activity monitoring a lot of dynamic behaviours conducted with playing situations that help the excerpt's in sport field to evaluate and put right solutions ,soccer one of games that studies in third stage in college and take skills ,dribbling , passing, shooting these skills helps to execute the plans in game ,the researchers notice that there is no test measure the skills of the game in the beginning of the first semester especially in the method of soccer in physical education college and the problem of the research were by answering the question that is there test connect between one or more that one of skill to measure the ability of students to execute the plans in soccer and the conclusion was the bui

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 30 2004
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
Comparison of the results of some tests of passing and dribbling of the basketball of tow different years between teams of chosen young players in Baghdad
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This study is concerned with the comparison of the results of some tests of passing and dribbling of the basketball of tow different years between teams of chosen young players in Baghdad. Calculative methods were used namely (Arithmetic mean, Value digression and T.test for incompatible specimens). After careful calculative treatments, it has been that there were abstract or no abstract differences in the find results of chestpass, highdribble and cross-over dribble. The clubs were: (Al-Khark, Air defence, Police and Al-Adamiyah) each one separate from the other for the year (2000-2001). After all that many findings were reached such as the lack of objective valuation (periodical tests) between one sport season and the other. In the light

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Influential Relationship of Environmental Analysis Processes in the Organization's Development Strategy An exploratory study of the views of a sample of the leaders of the Iraqi Ministry of Interior
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The study aims at diagnosing the importance of environmental analysis (external, industrial and internal) in the organization's strategy for the development of public organizations. The theoretical problem derived from the existence of a knowledge gap for studies and research that dealt with the variables of the study. Three public organizations were selected as the study society (the Civil Defense Directorate, the Directorate of Nationality, Passports and Residency, the General Traffic Directorate). The sample of the study was a sample of (215) managers (managers, department managers, Analysis of the data and hypothesis testing using the appropriate statistical tools, Pearson, the simple and multiple regression coefficient to te

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Organizational Red Tapes and their Reflections on Entrepreneurial Orientation: an Exploratory Study of a Sample of Employees in Some Organizations in the Province of Ninewah
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Organizations adopt a number of procedures and instructions in their field of activities in order to aid their resources development   and energies to serve their entrepreneurial orientations. This calls for preparing a range of mechanisms to mitigate the strictness and complexity of procedures. The ambiguity and severe  complexity  of procedures means acknowledging the loss in energy and this in turn  impedes the hopes while in the same time weakens the  enthusiasm in these organizations and an impedes the possibility to achieve continues innovation, thereby losing opportunities to the level of surrender to the risks and  assuming them to be unconquered obstacles.

There

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 11 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Impact of spastic cerebral palsy upon the quality of life of children under the age of 12 years in Erbil City: parents’ reports
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Objectives: This study aims to assess the quality of life of cerebral palsy children less than 12 years old reported by
parents in Erbil city/Iraq.
Methodology: A descriptive study was conducted during 2014, to describe the quality of life of cerebral palsy
children. One hundred mothers have cerebral palsy children were participated in this study. The study took place at
Helena Center for handicapped children in Erbil City. Questionnaire was used to collect data, which consists of two
main parts. The first part is divided into two sections; section one was described the mothers’ demographic
characteristics, while the second section was for identifying the demographical characteristics of cerebral palsy
children. Th

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Post a reflection on the capabilities of personnel programs A prospective study of a sample of the views of the staff at the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research
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            This research aims to know the role and impact of participation in the capabilities of human resources programs, and for the purpose of measuring it has been determined the dimensions of these two variables by relying on standards for this purpose, was chosen as the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research / device supervision and scientific calendar as one of the important departments in the ministry and includes a large number of individuals at different organizational levels for the purpose of answering a questionnaire prepared for the purpose of measurement and access to the results and the achievement of the objectives of the research and which ha

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 27 2022
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
آل البيت ( عليهم السلام ) من خلال كتاب درر السمط في خبر السبط لابن الابار البلنسي الاندلسي ( ت658هـ/1260م)
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One of them one of the important books due to its containing valuable information written by the author. Information include the life of the Messenger (Peace be upon him)

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 06 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effect of a Behavioral-Cognitive Training Program on Problems Solving among college students in the faculty of education for women : Baghdad University
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The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of a Cognitive- Behavioral Training Program in reducing Problems Solving among a sample of education university  College Students, the study sample consisted of (50) students were randomly assigned to two groups: experimental, and control; (25) students per group, the results of (ANOVA) revealed that there were significant differences at (p < 0.05) between experimental and control group in Problems Solving level, while there were significant differences between both groups in achievement. The researchers recommended further studies on the other variables which after training students on the method of solving problems and techniques to reduce stress.<

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