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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 14 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Monitoring Indicators for Maternal, Newborn and Child Health at Sub Primary Health Care Centers in Baghdad City: An Evaluative Study
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Objectives: The study aims to evaluate the application of monitoring indicators for maternal, newborn and
child health through the evaluation of impact and coverage health indicators and to evaluate the usefulness of the
application of these indicators at sub primary health care centers in Baghdad City.
Methodology: A descriptive comparative design, which is using the evaluation approach, has been steered at
Sub Primary Health Centers of Baghdad City in order to evaluate the application; impact and coverage, and the
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2018. A multistage, "non-probability" convenient, sample is selected for the present study. A t

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 20 2019
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Political Sciences Journal
Article The problem of nuclear proliferation and its impact on the formula of strategic balance in the Middle East after the events of September 11, 2001
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Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
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Thu Mar 01 2012
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Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Aug 16 2022
Journal Name
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أثر استراتيجية التدريس البصري باستخدام الانـفوجرافيك في التحصيل والتفكير البصري لدى طلاب المرحلة المتوسطة فـي مادة الرياضيات
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أثر استراتيجية التدريس البصري باستخدام الانـفوجرافيك في التحصيل والتفكير البصري لدى طلاب المرحلة المتوسطة فـي مادة الرياضيات

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Tue Dec 15 2020
Journal Name
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The field of graphic design has witnessed a unique, unique form transformed in its construction and installation and superior to systems through its creation of foundational data for design ideas with functional aesthetics and utilitarianism and effective and moving formulation in light of modern trends and what globalization has brought about in terms of openness to the outside world and the processes of communication and communication with the international community through graphic design. Based on the above, this study marked (Aesthetics of the Design Idea and its Communication Role in the Graphic Outcome) comes to clarify the topic through three chapters, including the first chapter, which was devoted to the research methodology, th

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 13 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
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Publication Date
Wed May 18 2016
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Crossref
Publication Date
Sat Jul 18 2020
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Research on the book observatories walls in doctrinal issues Written by Imam Sana Allah bin Ali bin Khalil (1137 AH)
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Publication Date
Sat Oct 28 2023
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Isolation and Identification of Polyethylene Terephthalate Degrading Bacteria from Shatt Al-Arab and Sewage Water of Basrah City
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