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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 07 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Laser
Design and Comparative Study of a one and Two Stage Blumlein Circuit TEA Nitrogen Laser
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Two Prototypes of Transversely Excited at atmospheric pressure (TEA) Nitrogen laser systems (One Stage Blumlein Circuit and Two Stage Blumlein Circuit) were fabricated and operated. High voltage power supply with variable operating voltage (0-20 kv) and operating current (1-3A) was built and tested successfully. The gas flow rate of 15 L/ min and 10 L/ min for OSBC and TSBC was used. The performance of the fabricated systems was studied extensively reaching to the optimum operating conditions. The obtained laser output energy for the first system has linear relationship with the applied voltage. The maximum output energy was about (1.14 mJ) with (10.40) ns pulse duration and the half-wave divergence angle was about (0.1455 m rad). In the

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 02 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
اثر استخدام قبعات التفكير الست على اكتساب المفاهيم التاريخية واستبقائها لدى طالبات الصف الرابع الادبي في مادة التاريخ
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Problem: Find dimensions of the problem by answering the following question: what the effect of using the Six Thinking Hats strategy to acquire the historical concepts and retain the fourth-grade students in the subject of literary history. Importance of research: current research is gaining importance in many ways, including: 1. Keep pace with the new in the field of education and modern educational strategies. 2. Shed light on innovative education strategy in the teaching of history, which is one of the materials that need to renew the tragedy of instruction methods for students. 3. Out of the monotony and traditional way of teaching to a method and a new strategy to develop the teacher and the learners thinking skills through various

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 19 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
دور دور( أبي القاسم قائم مقام )في القضاء على المتنافسين على العرش وتنصيب محمد ميرزا شاهاً على إيران
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  Abu Al- Qasim Qa ,im Maqam is famous figure in political life of lranian; The life of Abu Al- Qasim Qa ,im Maqam is full of incidents and conflicts in the period of the expansion of foreign influence in lran Abu Al- Qasim Qa ,im Maqam has an important role in the history of Iran Modern political considered him one of the most prominent leaders to the unified Arabian nationalistic liberating Abu Al- Qasim Qa ,im Maqam   raised in the history of the Qajar .

 

 

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 28 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Classism Hate Speech in Katherine Mansfield's Short Story ‘The Doll’s House’: A Pragmatic Study: ايمان نوري جاسم , مصلح شويش احمد
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Hate speech (henceforth HS) has recently spread and become an important issue. This type of speech in children's writings has a particular formulation and specific objectives that the authors intend to convey. Thus, the study aims at examining qualitatively and quantitatively the classism HS and its pragmatic functions via identifying the speech acts used to express  classism HS, the implicature instigated as well as impoliteness. Since pragmatics is the study of language in context, which is greatly related to the situations and speaker’s intention, this study depends on pragmatic theoriespeech acts, impoliteness and conversational implicature) to analyze the data which are taken from Katherine Mansfield's short story (The D

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The effect of creating knowledge according to the model (Nonaka & Takeuchi, 1995) on organizational ambidexterity: A study on a sample of Iraqi private banks
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Purpose - This study relies on the descriptive and analytical approach through collecting and analyzing the necessary data, as this approach focuses on polling the opinions of the research sample and its directions, and aims to develop a model that studies the relationship between knowledge creation and organizational ambidexterity in Iraqi private banks and verifying its validity experimentally.

Design / Methodology / Introduction - A survey was conducted through a questionnaire form to collect data from a sample of (113) managers in private commercial banks. In addition, this study used the AMOS program and the ready-to-use statistical program package (SPSS V.25) to test the proposed hypotheses of the t

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 11 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Measuring the Change in the Impact of the Corona Pandemic Factors on Psychological Sensitivity and Covid-19 Phobia in a Sample of University Students
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The aim of the research is to measure the change in the impact of the factors of the Corona pandemic on psychological sensitivity and COVID-19 phobia in a sample of Bisha University students and to detect the differences in the phobia (phobia) Covid-19 among the sample members in the measurement before the ban and after the ban was opened, in addition to the differences in psychological sensitivity of  The sample has between sizes before and after the spread of the Corona pandemic, as well as the differences in them according to the gender variable (male, female). The researcher relied on the comparative approach. The scale of psychological sensitivity and COVID-19 phobia was applied to a sample of (62) male and female respondents.

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Statistical quality control charts for measuring educational service quality at Albaha University, Saudi Arabia, from the viewpoint of students
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تم استخدام خرائط ضبط الجودة الإحصائية لتقييم جودة الخدمة التعليمية في جامعة الباحة،  ويهدف هذا البحث إلى استخدام خرائط ضبط الجودة الإحصائية لقياس مستوى الجودة وفجوة الجودة بين توقعات الطلبة وإدراكاتهم لمستوى الخدمة الذي تقدمه جامعة الباحة. حيث تم اختيار عينة من 200 طالب وطالبة عشوائيا باستخدام العشوائية العنقودية من 4 كليات خلال الفترة 01 – 30/2015م، وجمعت البيانات من خلال استبيان جودة الخدمة الذي يقيس ت

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 25 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Impact of Using the Information Technology on The Audit Profession: A Study of the Sample of Auditor Viewpoints in Selected Arab Countries
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This study aims to clarify areas of using information technology in accounting and its impact on the profession of auditors by reviewing the concept, types, areas and the importance of information technology and its implications on the audit profession as well as to clarify the extent of contribution of information technology in  developing of procedures of the audit profession and what its requirement, also this study aims to enhance the theoretical side by identifying the views of a sample of auditors in  Arab countries selected (Iraq, Syria, Jordan), for the extent of using of information technology in their work and level of their perception for the importance of that

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 26 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Geographical Analysis of Health's Field for Families in Al-Adhamiyah and Rusafa Districts in 2016: سمر حسين عكله, و صلاح محسن جاسم
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This research aims to analyze the indicators of spatial variation in the guide of health field in both Al-Adhamiyah and Rusafa districts according to the environmental and administrative units in 2016. The analysis was done by groups of health guide indicators. The objectives of the study were to identify the spatial variation of health services and assess the health situation for families following the environmental and administrative units of the studied area. Such objectives can be done by specifying the extent of the families’ consent to the type of services, measuring the cases of deprivation, and identifying the most deprived areas. The study has finally concluded that there is a clear spatial variation between the indicators and

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 17 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Architectural Heritage of Baghdad in Ibn Al-Faqih Hamadani's Book Baghdad the City of Peace And its impact on Sustainable Development
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This research shows the importance of Baghdad in the field of urban heritage and was demonstrated in the Ibn al-Fiqh al-Hamdani's book Baghdad the City of Peace in which he focused on many urban aspects and reviewing its historical importance by connecting them with modern events and the role they play in cultural and civilized construction which included: mosques, schools and markets etc. and the service providing institutions and other pillars of the Islamic cities through showing the development back then and its importance as an integral part of the urban and cultural heritage of the Islamic cities in general and Baghdad city in particular. 

In his book Baghdad the City of Peace, Ibn al-Faqih Hamadhaani

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