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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Reflections informational monitoring in Creative marketing systems
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Abstract:                                                                                                      

         The research aims to measure the impact of infor

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Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Comparative Study of Some Methods of Estimating Robust Variance Covariance Matrix of the Parameters Estimated by (OLS) in Cross-Sectional Data
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Abstract

The Classical Normal Linear Regression Model Based on Several hypotheses, one of them is Heteroscedasticity as it is known that the wing of least squares method (OLS), under the existence of these two problems make the estimators, lose their desirable properties, in addition the statistical inference becomes unaccepted table. According that we put tow alternative,  the first one is  (Generalized Least Square) Which is denoted by (GLS), and the second alternative is to (Robust covariance matrix estimation) the estimated parameters method(OLS), and that the way (GLS) method neat and certified, if the capabilities (Efficient) and the statistical inference Thread on the basis of an acceptable

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Mar 17 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Plasma Spectroscopy Diagnostics of V2O5 at a Variable of Operating Power and Pressure With Radio Frequency Magnetron Sputtering.
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   In this paper, we investigate the basic characteristics of "magnetron sputtering plasma" using the target V2O5. The "magnetron sputtering plasma" is produced using "radio frequency (RF)" power supply and Argon gas. The intensity of the light emission from atoms and radicals in the plasma measured by using "optical emission spectrophotometer", and the appeared peaks in all patterns match the standard lines from NIST database and employed are to estimate the plasma parameters, of computes electron temperature and the electrons density. The characteristics of V2O5 sputtering plasma at multiple discharge provisos are studied at the "radio frequency" (RF) power ranging from 75 - 150 Wat

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 01 2019
Journal Name
المجلة المصرية لبحوث الأعلام
دوافع تعرض طلبة أقسام اللُّغة الإنکليزية في جامعة بغداد للقنوات الفضائية الناطقة باللُّغة الإنکليزية والإشباعات المتحققة عنه:
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تلخصت مشکلة هذا البحث في التعرف على الدوافع التي تقف وراء تعرض الطلبة الدارسين في أقسام اللُّغة الإنکليزية للقنوات الفضائية الناطقة باللُّغة الإنکليزية والإشباعات المتحققة عن هذا التعرض في هذا المجتمع الخاص الذي يشکل بيئة اجتماعية علمية محددة، عن طريق تطبيق نظرية الإستخدامات والإشباعات في إطار المجتمعات الخاصة، وسعى هذا البحث إلى تحقيق ثلاثة أهداف هي، قياس استخدامات لطلبة الدارسين في أقسام اللُّغة الإنک

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 05 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Dilemmas in teaching human rights and democracy between the current reality and the difficulties in seeking to spread a culture of human rights
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In the age of information and communication revolution, education as one of life aspects has influenced with that revolution by integrating technology in education, which have become as an important learning tools of the whole educational process . Technology, when used appropriately, can help make science classroom a site of active learning and critical thinking, furthering student inquiry and connections with different materials. It is necessary to develop human rights education programs and materials for discretionary and extracurricular activities as it provide them with the skills and tools so that they are empowered to take action to realize their rights. Human rights education is a critical means of instilling the knowledge، skil

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2022
Journal Name
مجلة الدراسات الاقتصادية والادارية
تزامن تكاليف الجودة وتصميم العملية لتحقيق الميزة التنافسية: دراسة تطبيقية في الشركة العامة للمنتوجات الغذائية- مصنع المامون
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يهدف البحث الى تطبيق تزامن تصميم عملية انتاج معجون الاسنان في مصنع المامون التابع للشركة العامة للمنتوجات الغذائية مع نظام تكاليف الجودة المطبق في الشركة لتحقيق الميزة التنافسية. وتمثلت مشكلة البحث في أن الشركة عينة البحث لا تستخدم نظام تكاليف الجودة بالتزامن مع تصميم عملية إنتاج هذا المنتج لاغراض تحقيق الميزة التنافسية حيث تواجه منتجات الشركة منافسة عالية في الاسواق المحلية. إن الشركة تطبق نظام تكاليف الج

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 31 2017
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The saying of Al-Azhar in the fatwas with it from the words of Imam Zafar (may God have mercy on him) by Imam Pirizadeh Al-Hanafi (d. 1099 AH)
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It is no secret to anyone that studying and investigating books of jurisprudence, despite their suffering, is a pleasure that cannot be compared to pleasure, and it has benefits and importance that cannot be limited and summed up, and it has great fruits that researchers and students of knowledge reap, as well as enriching libraries with jurisprudential material, after dusting them and taking them out to the light of libraries to be seen. Researchers and scholars, generation after generation, so that this nation can benefit from this pioneering intellectual and scientific product that was written for us by our first ancestors of working scholars who enriched human civilization with this scientific material, which has become a beacon guid

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Different garlic forms: (lobster, mashed, crushed) and their effect on quality qualities And the molecular life of the fermented cucumber and flavor
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This study aimed to isolate and identifye the growth of microorganisms and
their effect on pickled cucumber and cabbage, the study also investigated the effect of
garlic (in the form of segments, chopped or crushed) on the mentioned pickled –food
features . Furthermore, a sense based comparison is made between vinegar-preserved
samples and vinegar-garlic preserved ones.
The following results have been obtained:
1- The isolation of staph. aureus alone from the samples and the study of its physical
and biochemical features.
2- The fresh garlic (segments, chopped and crushed) with concentration of 5%, 7.5%,
and 10% showed a damaging percentage of 100% to bacterial growth of staph. Aureus
after 24 hours of inc

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 07 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Impact of Cognitive Behavior Program Based on Meichenbaum Theory in Reducing the Negative Emotional Sensitivity among the Intermediate Stage Students
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The aim of this research is to construct a cognitive behavior program based on the theory of Meichenbaum in reducing the emotional sensitivity among Intermediate school students. To achieve the aims of the research, two hypotheses were formulated and the experimental design with equal groups was chosen. The population of research and its sample are determined. The test of negative emotional sensitivity, which is constructed by the researcher, was adopted. The test contains (20) items proved validity and reliability as a reliable test by presenting it to a group of arbitrators and experts in education and psychology. An educational program is constructed based on the theory of Meichenbaum. The test was applied to a sample of (60) second i

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 20 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Development Accounting Rule disclosure by accounting policies in the light of Islamic and electronic banking Activities (Proposal pattern): Proposal pattern
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the bank sect for any country  is very important  because  its represent a major  nerve   to feed a verity economic and finance activities .development any state measure by development  banking  sets and its represent  important  factor to investors attract . and because  important  of this subject ,teen accounting rule is a specialized for it .its related by  Disclosures in the Financial Statements Of Banks and The Similar Institutions, its accredit  by auditing and accounting standard  consul in republic of Iraq.in date 10/28/1998.                      &

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