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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2010
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Land Use/Cover Change Analysis Using Remote Sensing Data: A Case Study, Zhengzhou Area, Henan Province, China
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In the last two decades, arid and semi-arid regions of China suffered rapid changes in the Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) due to increasing demand on food, resulting from growing population. In the process of this study, we established the land use/cover classification in addition to remote sensing characteristics. This was done by analysis of the dynamics of (LUCC) in Zhengzhou area for the period 1988-2006. Interpretation of a laminar extraction technique was implied in the identification of typical attributes of land use/cover types. A prominent result of the study indicates a gradual development in urbanization giving a gradual reduction in crop field area, due to the progressive economy in Zhengzhou. The results also reflect degradati

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Depending the Total Quality Management Philosophy To Develop Lean Manufacturing Systems: Case Study In the General Company for Heavy Engineering Equipments
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The continued acceleration in the business environment has led to the need for organizations great attention to quality applied in organizations to meet the needs of customers and stay in the market for as long as possible.

Search launched from the underlying problem is the presence of concentrations of defects and waste plaguing the company and to achieve the goal of the study detects the level of quality applied in the factory vessels and reservoirs of the General Company for Heavy Engineering Equipment, As well as calculate wastage rates occurring in the production process and find a relationship between the level of quality and ratios defective in each type of waste, it has been used quantitative meas

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of weighted estimated method and proposed method (BEMW) for estimation of semi-parametric model under incomplete data
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Generally, statistical methods are used in various fields of science, especially in the research field, in which Statistical analysis is carried out by adopting several techniques, according to the nature of the study and its objectives. One of these techniques is building statistical models, which is done through regression models. This technique is considered one of the most important statistical methods for studying the relationship between a dependent variable, also called (the response variable) and the other variables, called covariate variables. This research describes the estimation of the partial linear regression model, as well as the estimation of the “missing at random” values (MAR). Regarding the

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Risk Analysis of Projects Accordance with the Professional Project Management System: A case- Study Mansur Construction Contracting Company here
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The research aims to identify the risks faced by projects and work on the administration, such as those risks by using professional Project Management System (Project Management Professional) by identifying those risks and their impact on the objectives of the project, if they occur and to provide appropriate responses to Ha.autam search application on the draft Law Faculty port by the General Mansour Construction Contracting company has been using a method personal interview with the heads of departments and project managers in the Al-Mansour and tools descriptive and quantitative analysis as was used (likelihood and impact of risk analysis, Ai_kaoa scheme Sbb- effect, analysis of probability and impact, risk matrix (probability

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Diagnosis of the reality of the gap for the requirements of Business Continuity Management System According to International Standard (ISO 22301: 2012) in Midland Refineries Company (Daura Refinery)
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Abstract:

The current research included " Diagnosis of the reality of the gap for the requirements of Business Continuity Management System According to International Standard (ISO 22301: 2012) in Midland Refineries Company (Daura Refinery) " , for development of an administrative system for Business Continuity is considered a priority in the present day, and in the light of the organizations dependence on computers and information technology in work and communication with others . the international legitimacy (represented by the international organization for standardization (ISO)) remains the basis for matching and commitment , and the importance of the application of Business Continuity Management Syst

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Diagnosing the reality of applying the operating requirement according to the international specification for the business continuity management system (ISO 22301:2019) : applied research in the General Tax Authority
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Abstract

                 The research aims to diagnose the reality of applying the eighth requirement (operation) of the business continuity management system according to the international standard (ISO 22301: 2019), in the General Tax Authority, which is related to planning, implementing and controlling specific processes and procedures to address risks and opportunities, and the research adopted the checklist of the standard ( ISO 22301: 2019), in obtaining information, to measure the extent of application and documentation, the percentages and the weighted arithmetic mean were relied upon, and the research reached a set of result

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use sensitivity analysis in evaluating projects Investment under the conditions of risk and uncertainty Case study of glass bottles project in Anbar province
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This paper studies the investment project evaluation under the condition of uncertainty. Evaluation of investment project under risk and uncertainty is possible to be carried out through application of various methods and techniques. The best known methods are : Risk-adjusted discount rate , certainty equivalent method , Sensitivity analysis and Simulation method The objective of this study is using the sensitivity analysis in evaluation Glass Bottles project  in Anbar province under the condition of risk and uncertainty.

After applying sensitivity analysis we found that the glass bottles project  sensitive to the following factors (cash flow, the cost of investment, and the pro

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 07 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Impact of Factors upon Children’ Weight Status of age one to Five years old at Primary Health Care Centers in AL Samawah City
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Objective: The study aim is to identify factors that may contribute to children’s weight status variations. Methodology: A descriptive cross sectional study is carried out has been conducted at the AL- Samawah city in Primary Health Care Centers for the purpose of the screening children’s weight status of Age One to five Years Old. This study is started from December 16th 2018 to February 14th 2019. A(non propriety) purposive sample comprised of (20) primary health centers (10 main and 10 sub) are selected of 500 children who visit the primary health care center during the period for the purpose of the study; Data was collected through using a questionnaire designed and developed for the purpose of the study . It consists of two main

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Application Tools Lean Six Sigma Definition and measurement phases in new product development. In the Electrical Industries State Company. case Study.
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methodology six sigma Help  to reduce defects by solving problems effectively, and works Lean to reduce losses through the flow of the manufacturing process and when integrating these two methodologies (Lean and six sigma), the methodology of Lean six sigma will form the entrance to the organizers of the optimization process and increase the quality and reduce lead times and costs . by focusing on the needs of the customer. this process uses statistical tools and techniques to analyze and improve processes.

 We have conducted this research in the General Company for Electrical Industries and adopted its product (machine cooling water three taps) as a sample for research. In order to determine t

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Violence and Extremism in Iraq: Approaches to Motives and Means of Confrontation
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     After the year 2003, Iraq went through multiple waves of violence and at different levels on the security, intellectual, political and social levels. Behind that stood several motives and incentives to enable violence that represented the first axis of research, the most important of which was the political motives that circulated an atmosphere that politics against society and transformed power into a field of political brutality against the individual and the group at once. There are also cultural, intellectual, media and economic motives such as weak cultural independence, poverty, marginalization, unemployment and want, and the absence of a media discourse that rejects violence but incites it, on the other ha

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