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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 01 2015
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Factors affecting the future of Iraq's production of crude oil
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As the major role of oil sector in financing and development of Iraqi economy this study tried to research on the factors which influencing the future of oil production in Iraq and for that study addressed the hypothesis (the production and export of crude oil in Iraq , influenced by many factors divided into internal and external factors this factors shared the effect varies in the size of their participation and runs from different sectors economic , political and social , in order to test the study hypothesis study addressed the subject of three axes(an overview of the history and facts of crude oil production in Iraq and factors internal Affecting the future of oil production in Iraq and external factors affecting the future

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 29 2019
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
ادارة إدارة المكتبات في العراق بين التراث والمعاصرة
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Iraqies has a spot in administration of the libraries and organized it since the reign of civilizations , the ancient libraries in the world were in the mesopatemia, then Baghdad had crown to be Islamic civilization when it hold the greatest ones as Bait Al-Hikma according to its organization as well as the persons who were responsilble for libraries must be of higher education and thoutful ones .

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Choose the best model for building life tables in Iraq
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Demography or population studies or demography is the science that is based on the different characteristics of the population scientific study, and represent a population studies principled way to understand the population of society, in addition to verification of the population in a given area determine the reason for the increase or decrease this number from the previous statistical As these studies estimate future trends for the occurrence of demographic change in terms of birth, death and migration That the registration of deaths of paramount importance narrated that way can the demographic reality of the population analysis, and coverage of the health authorities' needs and enable government institutions of decision-making

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 28 2022
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Decentralization in Iraq: Addressing The State – Society Gap
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The implementation of decentralization in Iraq was asymmetrical, leading to different forms and paces of implementation. Comparing four cases of Basra, Kirkuk, Nineveh, and Sulaymaniyah indicate that these cases differ in their political stability and autonomy in a way that led to a different forms of decentralization. This paper argues that the higher the level of political autonomy from the federal government, the more efficient the governance model, and the more efficient the governance model, the more legitimate the system (trust), and the more legitimate a system, the more accountable elected officials. Therefore, it recommends reforming the institutional setup of decentralization by having districts, instead of provinces, as the bu

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 20 2019
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Independent government agencies in Iraq / Integrity Commission a model
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The state did not witness the emergence of independent bodies because of the nature of the ruling regimes that were characterized by political tyranny represented by the king at the time, as is the case with Greece and the Greeks and Persia and the Romans and others. As for the Islamic state, which emerged later, it saw the emergence of what looks like independent bodies that we see today, There was the so-called Diwan Al-Hesba and the Ombudsman's Office as an independent body from the Islamic State, which operated independently to support the oppressed and the equitable distribution of financial resources, even though it was headed by well-known governors of justice and honesty. A state in the modern era, many countries, especially in E

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Publication Date
Wed May 02 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
the population in Iraq up to 2035 an analytical study
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The population studies are one of the difficult tasks facing the world in all periods. most of the researchers and who have relationship to population policies and development plans, may have succumbed to the idea that the population problem is based and confined mainly in the rate of increase in population, or the so – called population explosion, and not the content because of its pressure on resources and there is no problem of population if the resources are available and therefore no need for the development and implementation of population policies in any way . While the population policies here should take a range of general and comprehensive in every respect to population and demographic phenomena distribution, not only

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 01 2010
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
الثروة السمكية في العراق الواقع و الآفاق المستقبلية
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Despite all the possibilities, owned by Iraq for the production of fish, but there is low in the level of production and in the rate of per capita consumption is due to inter alia, the weakness of investment, stop government support, a significant decline in the quantities of water, the high proportion of salinity and the proportion of pollution in the water, the use of means and fishing methods are primitive, weak laws and legislation, the policy of dumping markets imported products. Despite all this research has shown that there are investment opportunities very large in this sector through the size of the market and the absorptive capacity and the growth of per capita income and cultural revelation

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2022
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Means of activating the role of civil society institutions in Iraq
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    The concept of civil society is one of the relatively recent concepts that have emerged clearly on the political and social arena especially in European countries, where it effectively contributes to the process of democratic transformation through the multiple roles and functions that it exercises, and acts as mediator between the state and the individual. Civil society in essence works to bring about change in society whether it is political, economic, social or cultural .The civil society appeared in Iraq after 2003, as is the case with many concepts that entered Iraq and took upon themselves the building of a democratic Iraq .Accordingly civil society institutions are the entity capable of rebuilding the Iraqi personal

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 05 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The requirements of curriculum development for the public stage in Iraq
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 Chapter One : the importance of research and the need for it .
       He has developed the concept of the curriculum has evolved as other educational concepts . Because the world has become a small village due to modern technology and are used in various aspects of life , and the rapid communication between the world can be accessed easily and conveniently . And that the purpose of education citizens who create social functions which ones to keep the culture , upgrade and repair flaws, and aims to develop the capacity of the individual and the preparations in the footsteps of scientific and technological development .
- The goal of research : The research aims to:
1 . What is the

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 26 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Income Tax in Iraq and the Treatment of Married Women in Charge
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   Iraqi legislator taxation  married women in charge of the income tax treatment of the man in charge of tax and the application of the principle of equality of individuals to bear public burdens. The factor legislator women in charge of special treatment in some cases, taking into account the circumstances family allow  tax in the case of whether she was married to a man is unable to completely work and does not have a resource, as well as giving the legislator allow for her children. it observed that the amount of allowing still little is notcommensurate with the high cost of living in addition to limiting the tax allowances granted within the limits of the taxpayer and his immediate family did not take the legisla

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