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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 20 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Impact of Fear and Rational Appeal Scam Techniques on Individual Susceptibility
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Scams remain among top cybercrime incidents happening around the world. Individuals with high susceptibility to persuasion are considered as risk-takers and prone to be scam victims. Unfortunately, limited number of research is done to investigate the relationship between appeal techniques and individuals' personality thus hindering a proper and effective campaigns that could help to raise awareness against scam. In this study, the impact of fear and rational appeal were examined as well as to identify suitable approach for individuals with high susceptibility to persuasion. To evaluate the approach, pretest and posttest surveys with 3 separate controlled laboratory experiments were conducted. This study found that rational appeal treatm

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 15 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Feeding Behaviors of Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder in Baghdad City
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Objective(s): To assess the behavior that impedes the eating of children with autism spectrum disorders in Baghdad city, and find out the relationships between the behaviors that impede eating of autistic children and their demographic characteristics.
Methodology: The study started from the period of 16th September 2019 to the 16th of March 2020. A non-probability (purposive) sample of 80 children with autism spectrum disorders was selected. The questionnaire was designed and composed of two parts: the first part includes the autistic children demographic data, the second part includes scales of behavior that impede eating followed by parents towards autistic child. The reliability of the questionnaire was determined through a pilot

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 15 2023
Journal Name
Al-academy
Employing digital marketing through communication in promoting the commercial product
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In recent years, the means of communication have achieved a great generality that made them occupy, in a short time, the first ranks among the most widely used social networks in the world, due to the many services and advantages offered by this network to its users. It has led to a leap in the field of visual communication, especially since it relies mainly on the image Its dimensions make it a means of communication and transfer of ideas and meanings between the peoples of the world, and it also allows the inclusion of digital advertising content using multimedia with a degree of professionalism in other social networks, which allowed the various segments of society the opportunity to invest this network in their businesses of differen

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 11 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Kufa Studies Center
فتوى الجهاد الكفائي ودورها في بناء الإنسان (رؤية قرآنية معاصرة )
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صار لزاماً علينا بيان مفهوم المعنى الحقيقي للجهاد وبيان أفضل أنواعه ورتبه وتحديداً الجهاد الكفائي بين النظرية والتطبيق من حيث معناه العام وبجوانبه الفكرية والاجتماعية , والسياسية ,والاقتصادية , وإيماناً منّا بانتفاضة المرجعية العليا في إعلانها الجهاد الكفائي ضد العصابات الارهابية التي استباحت الدين والوطن فكانت بالفعل الهام إلهي جسد أروع مبادئ الاسلام في التضحية والدفاع عن الدين ومقدساته , وانبل القيم الا

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
بيت الحكمة
دور مجلس المنافسة في الحد من الممارسات التمييزية ضد العمالء
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Publication Date
Fri Dec 22 2006
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Abu Ghraib Urban Growth An Analytical Study in General Characteristics
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The Results Of Interest In Capitals And Major Cities Have Become Major Attraction Centers For People In Rural Areas And Different Regions, Especially With The Concentration Of Industrial And Commercial Establishments And Public Services, Which Helped To Find The Wide Differences Between Them. Recently, The Trend To Develop Small Urban Centers In Rural Back Areas Great And Serious Attempt To Reduce Inflation. The Suburb Of Abu Ghraib Is One Of The Important Suburbs Near The City Of Baghdad And Through The Study Of The Reality Of The Suburb Shows That The Outcome Of Its Career And Urban Development Lies In Its Mutual Relationship With The City Of The Mother In The Light Of Considerations And Measures Of The Most Important Accessibility And

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 15 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Impact of Organizational Innovation Climate on Sustainable Competitive Advantage- Empirical Study
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The problem of the research is that some companies lack the mechanisms and policies that to enhance the loyalty of these valuable resources, which led to difficulties in generating knowledge, producing, storing, investing and investing information to achieve a sustainable competitive advantage. In addition, companies are still working with the traditional wage system (monthly salaries), which makes people not think about adding value to work. The research aims to determine the level of variables for researchers to clarify the impact of the organizational innovation climate on sustainable competitive advantage. The Qualitative approach is used based on research. The research was applied

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 22 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
دلالة الفعل المزيد في الخطبة الشقشقيّة للإمام عليّ (عليه السلام)
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Publication Date
Sat Jun 04 2022
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
paratexte in specialized literary journals : AL ADEEB AL IRAQI magazine is a model
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Post-structural critical studies highlighted the importance of studying the texts surrounding the text as an important part in the process of receiving and understanding texts, and although this topic was dealt with by the ancient Arabs and Europeans, interest in it appeared clearly after the appearance of Gerard Genet's book (SEUILS), which separated it Text Thresholds. Or what he called paratexte, and dealt with them with interest as he reads them on books. With the development of semiotic studies, interest in paratexte studies began in a broader way and in various literary and non-literary texts, including journalistic texts. And since specialized magazines are one of the press releases that enjoy their privacy in terms of topics and

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 31 2017
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
What was mentioned by Imam Al-Tirmidhi in his book Al-Sunan regarding the provisions of sales
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The reason for my choice of the topic (what Imam Al-Tirmidhi mentioned in his book Al-Sunan regarding the provisions of sales) is that he mentioned many topics that affect people's lives, which are represented by commercial transactions and the exchange of benefits between them, so it became clear to them what is forbidden and what is not, aiming not to fall into the prohibited, and to achieve their interests, and relieve them of embarrassment. What we will see in the research.

 

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