Preferred Language
Articles
/
Pxc4s40BVTCNdQwCChkw
نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
...Show More Authors

تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

Preview PDF
Quick Preview PDF
Publication Date
Sun Jan 05 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Unemployment & its Problems Between Theory & Applying Field Study in Baghdad City
...Show More Authors

The unemployment is considered from the most danger problems that our society face them in current time & in the near future , because it makes prodigality for element of human being , particularly age of youth who have ability to work & producing , that resulted in negative effects forecast to dire consequences social and economical dangers . In the same time as will be stated in our explanation in the following in our research , because the unemployment has ability to help to prepare good environment to grow crime , actions of violence that mostly are main cause to decrease living level of majority of citizens & in increasing numbers who became under poverty , the unemployment is economical problem as it is psycholo

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Fri Sep 15 2023
Journal Name
Al-academy
Publicizing the survey image in local consumer protection the mission program is a model
...Show More Authors

The investigative film is part of the documentary films and is considered one of the important films that have a high viewership by the recipient, which is of great importance in transmitting information and contributing to creating awareness of the community through the advertising function performed by the cinematic image, as the researcher addresses the concept of advertising and its development through the time stages. And advertising functions. Then the researcher dealt in his research with the cinematic technical elements that contribute to the success of the investigative advertising work, such as camera movements, music, sound effects, dialogue ... etc., which enrich the investigative picture with realism and the flow of informat

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Sat Feb 09 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Effect of Assessment Techniques on EFL Learners’ achievement in TOEFL Test
...Show More Authors

While many educators are highly focused on state test, it is important to consider that
over the course of a year, instructors can build in many opportunities to assess how learners
are learning. Therefore, assessment techniques are considered a good method to get benefit
for both instructors and learners in the process of teaching and learning. The sample consists
of 27 learners who participated in TOEFL training course in the Development and Continuous
Education Centre. Validity and reliability were verified.
To fulfill the aims and verify the hypothesis which reads as follows” It is hypothesized
that the TOEFL learners' scores will not be increased after TOEFL course training.” T-test
for two dependent samp

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Thu Mar 19 2015
Journal Name
Al-academy
The technical and conceptional changing in post modern art: شيماء وهيب خضير
...Show More Authors

The art has been turned its subject in the post modern thinking . this turning is aresult to the turning in the role of the art it self. Across its history the art was basing its subject on a universal unite it the phenomenenon which is the most elevated . that the artist try to activate the role of the subject as a axial which compose the plastic art them. Because of the history of art full with subjects which consider in alarg part of it, have relation ship with elite and aesthetics , and from the begening of renaissance the central activity of the art was based on opoint which has concentrated reaction or it going in away belong to the state in that time.so renaissance was in relegous axial and romantisim on a dream axial, classisisim

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Aug 03 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The adequacy of foreign reserves and their role in the stability of the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar
...Show More Authors

Many countries are very important in their interest not only in diversifying foreign reserves, but in determining and planning their volume in accordance with the goals set, namely facing potential external shocks, as the research aims to determine the extent of the strength of foreign reserves in the possession of the Central Bank in relation to every influential variable in the Iraqi economy. , in order to determine the minimum level of reserves that requires reconsideration of the exchange rate, as the research adopted the inductive analytical method in analyzing real (Quantitative data) for the research variables in the years of study, as the research adopted a set of analytical indicators approved by the International Moneta

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Mon Feb 04 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Motivated Lamentations of Imam Hussein in modern Iraqi poetry
...Show More Authors

The Fountain of poetry Canot be suddenly flow or flood from emptiness. but it is streams and motives drive it to move . Forward tat Calmness and latent in depth of poet ,and try to Chang it in to high wives , go in to details inside the seas of poetry ,to sail threw it on the ships of poetry in creative styel to reach to the point from imaginary meaning , so every poet has direction to competein poetry poetsin Lament of Imam Hussain, There versification of poetry didn’t come from emptiness , but there was clashes motive them threw Calling the personality of Imam Hussain to learn lesson in avery beautiful and greative styel ,to be the expression poem from many sides in the personality of Imam Hussain from that events and facts that happ

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Sun Feb 22 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Studies And Researches Of Sport Education
دوافع اعتراض اللاعبين على قرارات الحكام في لعبة كرة القدم
...Show More Authors

View Publication
Publication Date
Sun Apr 07 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Sources of psychological Stress with students living at dormitories in university of Baghdad.
...Show More Authors

Stress with all its kinds are the results of a nick development Leading to delinquency burdening the ability of people.. development gas its effect on self and body reflecting on health ( physically, Psychological. And mentally) and finally leading to death (Al emara,2001,2).

Stress refers to he degree of response of the individual to events and environmental changes in his daily life with their physiological effects  such as headaches , backaches, and gastric ulcer that have different effect depending on the personality of the person and his psychological characteristics differences airing individuals ( Al emirs, zool,2  )

The aims:

  • knowi

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Mon Sep 30 2019
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Semantic differences between the explicit source The Mimi source in the Holy Quran
...Show More Authors

The main purpose of the research is to study the significance of the event in the explicit source and its significance in the Mimi source and to explain the difference between them in the Holy Quran, especially since most linguists were not interested in what the Mime source indicates in the text, but focused on its form and form, as they defined it as the name Linguists and grammarians did not mention a difference in meaning between the explicit source and the Mimi source, and they interpret the second in the first sense, which led me to choose this topic, to know the significance of each source through Appeal to the maqam and occasion in a challenge D The exact meaning.

View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Mon Jan 28 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The statistic structure of the title in the poetry of Muhammed Ali Kazim Haider
...Show More Authors

In this research, we attempt to show the extent of harmony in an aspect of the text according to the stylistics for the Knowing of the stylistic value of the title threshold, and the pathways of titles that suggest and support the meaning when the recipient reads the literary text, in addition to the interpretations that reflect the purposes of the poet who contributed to the drawing of his poetic achievement. The research presented a brief about the poet and his most important works, because they are the text which will be studied according to the stylistics. The research also explained the concept of style and the stylistics in the preface , because of the stylistic is the method adopted by the research to study the title thresholds in

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF