تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
Theauthor addressed politeness discourse in “Surat Ghafir”. Quran texts include many rhetorical utterances which are considered pragmatic mechanismsconcerned with finding polite discourse. examining these texts allow to determine the effectiveness degree in the discourse, and to find the effect level that leads to interaction between the speaker and the listener. Graduation is considered an effect and a mechanism of discourse escalation.
The author reached a common definition of the graduation effectiveness term, due to its importance in finding polite discourse that is constructed by lingual manifestations some of which are escalation and graduation. Escalation is a mechanism to show the level of discourse graduation, it is a mea
Is the subject of Facebook of more topics that aroused interest and that it provides the features and services that allows users to direct communication and interaction and dialogue with others, and deals with the subject of research the use of Facebook and its effects left by the social relations, as the field study was conducted on a sample of 130 students from students Baghdad University of males and females in the Faculty of Political Science and Agriculture, Science and Education, Girls, and limited the sample to Facebook users exclusively to test the study hypotheses and relationships connectivity, and the results revealed the presence of a significant impact of Facebook in th
... Show MoreWhen exercising their authority in the jurisprudence, judges are subject to a set of restrictions that they must adhere to, as they do not want their jurisprudence to be accepted and welcomed by law practitioners in general, and legal scholars in particular, and in contrast to it, the arrows of criticism and defamation will extend to that jurisprudence, and then they will have to reverse them . Perhaps the most important of those restrictions imposed on judges is their observance of justice between the parties to the lawsuit through their lack of bias for one of the parties at the expense of the other, in addition to their observance of public order and public morals, as well as their observance of the legal texts that they work under its u
... Show MoreThis research main goal is to identify the concept of relating and eliminating in visual arts and how does work as a philosophic and aesthetic concept of great importance in visual arts, specially in abstract field, for it is related to ornament (geometrical or botanical) for its rising is a sign for the operations of adding and deleting, and studying art products with such trend in their configuration and the boundaries of utilizing this concept. Then taking the art works of the artist Mahdi Mutashar as a research sample for procedural analysis. And outputs that tend in this direction in it's formal being and know the limits of the concept of work -related dialectically interconnected. And then deal procedurally with the works of Iraqi
... Show MoreAlthough cinema is moving towards art, it has dealt with the character since the beginning of the discovery of cinematic art in films such as (Doctor Caligari's cabin) and most German expressive films in the third decade of the twentieth century, but the interest of cinema is growing in the estranged human personality, meaning that this character It lives by its alienation from the environment and society that surrounds it, because our present days have witnessed on the material and moral level more social breakdowns such as wars and disasters, and the sharp contradiction in the social and economic level of people themselves or between different societies, or between the individual and his community, and new social relations have increas
... Show MoreThis study is conducted to verify the efficienecy of local Ninivite rock when used in the treatment of drinking water in plants operating currently in the country in order to develop the situation of these stations to cope with the increase in population. Also, this will limit the pollutian which are increasing in the country's rivers.
(Euphrates and Tigris). These rivers are the sources to feed all water treatment plants in the country. The idea is the develop or the modify these stations by replacing part of top layer of sand filters used in these stations with Ninivite rock to operate as filters composed of two medium. The efficiency of this rock is compared with other materials used successfully worldwide in this area, such a
... Show MoreMany studies have recommended implying the skills and strategies of creative thinking, critical thinking, and reflective thinking in EFLT curriculum to overcome EFL teaching-learning process difficulties. It is really necessary to make EFL teachers aware of the importance of cultural thinking and have a high perception of its forces. Culture of thinking consists of eight cultural forces in every learning situation; it helps to shape the group's cultural dynamic. These forces are expectations, language, time, modeling, opportunities, routines, interactions, and environment. This study aims to investigate EFL student-teachers’ perceptions of cultural thinking. The participants are selected randomly from the fourth-stage students at the D
... Show Moreتناول البحث موضوعاً شديد الأهمية وهو الأمن الاجتماعي منظور اليه في سياق الحماية الجنائية لأمن الدولة والتحديات التي يتعرض لها بعد حصول تغيير حاسم في أساليب الحرب. كما يقدم البحث تقسيماً مختلفاً لأجيال الحروب نقتصر على اربعة منها استناداً إلى التغيير في أهداف الحرب الاستراتيجية وليس إلى مجرد وسائل ارتكابها لان هذه الوسائل لا تصلح لوصف التغييرات الحقيقية في أنماط الحروب والاهداف التي تسعى إلى تحقيقها. ويؤكد
... Show MoreFind the impediments Activity vital and important, but focuses a bancassurance activity, diagnosis and its impact on the financial ratios indicators for insurance companies. The researcher has adopted in his research on several financial ratios used to analyze the financial performance of a (relative profitability, liquidity ratio and the ratio of solvency) of the company Iraqi insurance for a period of one year (2009) to a year (2015), based on the annual reports and financial statements (balance sheet revealed income), financial statements for insurance premiums for banks research sample of this research has addressed several topics of theoretical and practical body through which the researcher obstacles to banking and insurance experi
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