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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Role of Design And Decoration in Enriching Children’s Clothes
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As the child is growing up, he goes through different phases which will be accompanied by physical and psychological changes. These changes set the basis for processes of designing and making children's clothes which in turn give its required benefits and meet the physiological, psychological and community needs. That will help provide the child with healthy physical and psychological growth.
The aim of this research is to recognize the decoration of clothes by colors and drawings and its role in clothes' richness and children's education. The research limits are objective, The limits are for female (3-5) years old. The research was done in teaching kindergarten in the college of education for women in 2016. The researchers found many

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 03 2005
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
العوامل المؤثرة في نشأة النظام السياسي الامريكي
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العوامل المؤثرة في نشأة النظام السياسي الامريكي

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 16 2018
Journal Name
Al-academy
The Aesthetics of the Digital Sound Effects in Television Drama
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The sound effects in TV dramas achievements have become very important not only in terms of function and implementation, but at a greater and wider level in terms of artistic and aesthetic values, which are produced and employed in the most important world artistic achievements of drama, using the latest and most prominent technologies and equipment and according to the expressive and dramatic values expressed by these modern digital sound effects. Therefore, the researcher chose the aesthetic effect of digital sound effects in television drama to identify the aesthetic aspects provided by digital sound effects by employing them and their accompaniment for the image.

The researcher, therefor, divided this study into the methodolo

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 11 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
The Social Aspect of Vertical Landscape in Residential Buildings
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The great raise and development of residential buildings in modern cities worldwide as a result of urban extends leads to environmental and social problems, that make the designers looking for more complicated and innovative solutions. To encounter these, most advanced technologies in construction had been used resulting buildings had become higher, which was moved away from the land called residential housing. And with the development of these buildings, increase in the inhabitants inside; generate distant from nature, which increased the need for interactive outdoor recreational spaces open green in its high sections, was an alternative or complementary option to outer space at the ground level. Therefore, the research problem has emer

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
השירה החילונית לשמואל הנגיד בספרד Hebrew religious poetry to Shmuel Hnagad In Spain
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תקציר

השירה החילונית  זו מיזגה בין התרבות היהודית והתרבות הערבית השלטת. התרבות הערבית השלטת  השפיעה על היהודים בשירה, בספרי פילוסופייה ועיון, בהגות דתית, ביצירה של פרשנות המקרא, במחקר בדקדוק עברי, ברפואה ועוד. ספרי המדע המחקר והעיון נכתבו כולם בערבית. זו היתה שפת הדיבור בקהילות היהודיות. אבל השירה שהתפתחה, שירה אשר קבלה את יסודותיה מן השירה הערבית, שהגיעה לשיא בתקופה זאת – נכתבה כולה בעב

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 14 2022
Journal Name
Al-academy
The psychology of nightmares (horror) in the cinematic movie
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Psychology is one of the sciences that consciously overlap in terms of mutual influence with art forms in general and cinematic arts in particular. The psychological effect can be extrapolated into the visual image through the characters and their actions, especially the adoption of psychoanalytic ideas and proposals that came by (Freud), The cinema benefited from the concepts of psychology and participated in the process of creativity and the manufacture of events or the actions of characters, such as the concepts of consciousness and subconsciousness to express the psychological dimension of the film events, these data can be counted on the level of nightmares in the cinematic movies.
The methodological framework included the rese

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2015
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
· Bug selection for names                   In the interpretation of the long sea
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Whoever contemplates the Qur'an and recites its texts finds that the Qur'an did not invent or invent words that were unknown before it. Rather, it is the language of the Qur'an which deals with all the matters of the saying. He chose the most honorable of the materials and connected them to the meaning. And in the places of prosperity or sweetness, we find his words easy, to go into the midst of the ills for which it is The Holy Quran chose vocabulary and structures without The son of Ajeeba was one of those distinguished by high taste and linguistic sciences. This ability helped him to analyze and draw, and to explain the ills for which he influenced the singular On the other, and installed on another, and to show the efforts of Ibn Aje

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 31 2017
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Jurisprudential applications to restrict permissible in Islamic jurisprudence
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Research summary

 


Muslim scholars have established fundamental rules for deriving rulings to be a methodology for every mujtahid who wants to extract rulings from his reliable sources, and one of the most prominent fundamental rules on which many rulings are built is the permissible and the many rulings related to it.

Leaving what is permissible on its own terms sometimes causes embarrassment and distress in some cases, so we need something that restricts it. In our Islamic law, many legal rulings are embodied in which the restriction of what is permissible is in the public interest, or to relieve embarrassment in public.

Because of the importance of this fundamentalist rule, and the difference in some

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2011
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
بصمات الذاكرة التاريخية في الحياة الوطنية العراقية
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بصمات الذاكرة التاريخية في الحياة الوطنية العراقية

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 26 2023
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
شِعريَّةُ الرمزِ والأُسطورةِ في القصيدةِ النِّسويةِ المعاصرةِ
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There is no doubt that this topic has received more study and research than other analytical studies of contemporary poetry models, but many scholars did not stop at the limits of crystallizing the features of feminist poetic production, given its active role in building the features of the modern Arab literary entity.

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