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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 29 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Alglul in Rashidi age and the Umayyad and Abbasid and ordinances "historical study"
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1-Alglul is the introduction of after prize or (Booty) secretly before it is divided, and the general sense is an absolute betrayal, and God has forbidden and the Prophet (Peace be upon him) by Muslims; such as bribery and gift-giving and other function by the terminology.
2-The signals and texts Alglul in the Covenant Rashidi and the Umayyad and Abbasid very few, compared to the Covenant of the Prophet, and so by the Quranic verses that were deprived Alglul and other Transmitting booty for the Muslims, and the hadith which magnified Alglul and showed its consequences in this life and the afterlife, and the tutelage of the Prophet (Peace be upon him) its active role in reducing Alglul, it was the great commandments included notificati

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 31 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Peace For Humanities And Social Sciences Jphsc
The Role of Contract Duration in the Pre-Contractual Phase
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Time crosses one of the most important principles that are agreed upon in contracts, because the temporal dimension has a significant impact on all contract provisions and is not limited to a certain group of them. French and Arab legal jurists alike called for this dimension to be given special attention. That is the term of the contract term; To try to limit the temporal elements, clarify their provisions and distinguish between them, but in the Arab world it did not receive the same attention that it received in the West.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Globalisation and its Impact on North Korean political Regime
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Abstract Globalization dominated in the last decade of the twentieth century and the eve of the third millennium over economic,politics,psychology,culture,communications and information sciences,it's a historical phenomenon refer to many important transitions in humanitarian life.It foxes on that state has illusion its historical role in the psychologist,economic and political buldings. Globalization issue and its influence in North Korea put a spotlight on political,economic and cultural situations,the political system resists any change with many limitations on political freedoms,human rights and political multiplicity.Libralism trends and free market are so weaken when it comparing within the bad economic situation of the coun

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Experience of Disabled Female Students at Academic Study in Saudi Universities
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The current study aims to examine the experience of female students with disabilities who studying in university in kingdom of Saudi Arabia. To this end, the researcher used semi-structured interview as an instrument to collect the study data which regards as one of the descriptive approach tools. The sample comprised (12) disabled-female students from multidiscipline within both college of arts and college of education. To analyze the collected data, the author utilized a thematic analysis method following six steps as stated by (Braun and Clark, 2006). The findings revealed that disabled students have a high self-confidence which push them forward to take part in activities that hold on campus. Besides, significant variation were shown

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 31 2019
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
القنوات القنوات المحفورة في الصخر لجر المياه
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Archaeological waste in the field of irrigation and watering methods, with its agricultural experience and skills, is one of the most significant achievements of the ancients, and perhaps our study area, the province of Aurès, which is located east of Algeria, bears witness to these achievements in the light of geological, geographic and topographic data. Although the inhabitants of this territory have used many techniques for the various civilizations

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
An Introduction to Gender in Feminine Literature and Criticism
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The Gender study is consider one of the concepts which the Postmodernism reached
after the end of Modernism, where the first one has limited the criticism study choices before
the second after closed many doors of subjects which was enriched by researches.
It is pretty clear that the root of this concept belongs to the Linguistics which provided
the Criticism with a countable reasons of it is growth.
The attention in the study of gender in Feminine Literature and Criticism increased in
Arabic studies since the early years of twenty one century, so this research is presented to be
an introduction to this subject which could pave the way to more studies.
In addition to the Gender studies this research deals with ano

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 22 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
الرياضة الرياضة في الاندلس (ركوب الخيل انموذجا)
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              Riding in Andalusia was a sport emphasized by Islam. It also works to strengthen the muscles, prevent them from sagging, gain vitality and vitality, regulate blood circulation and improve brain and heart function. The research we discussed in the study is not limited to a particular class. Most Andalusian rulers practiced equestrian And they hold concerts and competitions of horse competition, as happened during the reign of Caliph al-Hakam al-Mustansir and Muzaffar ibn Abi Amer and the governor adopted Ben Abbad and the Caliph Muhammad bin Bani al-Ahmar, the governor of the city of Granada in the presence of the great poets such as the son of Abu Salt and Ibn

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
In vitro isolation and expansion of neural stem cells NSCs
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   Neural stem cells (NSCs) are progenitor cells which have the ability to self‑renewal and potential for differentiating into neurons, oligodendrocytes, and astrocytes. The in vitro isolation, culturing, identification, cryopreservation were investigated to produce neural stem cells in culture as successful sources for further studies before using it for clinical trials. In this study, mouse bone marrow was the source of neural stem cells. The results of morphological study and immunocytochemistry of isolated cells showed that NSCs can be produced successfully and maintaining their self‑renewal and successfully forming neurosphere for multiple passages. The spheres preserved their morphology in culture and cryopreserved t

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 01 2013
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Political pluralism in contemporary Islamic political thought
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The paper deals with the position of the Contemporary Islamic political thought concerning the Islamic of pluralism in party system and the role of political parties in the future Islamic state . this paper focuses on the vision of Mr. mohammad hussain Fadlulah to these topics and his opinion in the legitimacy of alliancy with secular political parties The paper , also discussed his opinion concerning the adaptation of political relations between the Islamic political parties under the rules and lows of secular political system in order to have broad positively the public good

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Dec 10 2017
Journal Name
Al-academy
Form and function in the design of intellectual toys
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Playing is the only common language among children in every place and time, to the fact that what distinguishes the children is their quest to play and fun way innate, not acquired, which is expressed with the child really is one of the rights. And play a key entrance to the growth of the child mentally, intellectually and cognitively and not for the child emotionally and socially just. In the play the child begins to identify and classify objects and learn concepts and circulate among themselves on a linguistic basis. Activity here and play a major role in leading the linguistic development of the child in the composition has the communication skills.

The Games (especially intellectual ones) Whatever the cause of the development

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