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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 22 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Tax Audit and Its Impact on Tax Returns Quality
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     The study aims at showing the role of tax audit in Impact the quality of tax statements. Tax audit is one of the most important means used by tax management to identify taxable revenues in a just, fair manner. The quality of statements relies on the extent to which the information provided by taxpayers is true and accurate. Tax audit works is compatible with the strategy of increasing tax adherence and detecting non-adherence cases and penalizing those who commit such violations. The study reached a number of results and conclusions. One of the most important results is that tax audit helps improve the information content of the taxpayers tax statements. This leads to recalculating taxable incomes and re-fixing t

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 04 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Classification of Rural Road Network in Al-Najaf Governorate
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This study has dealt with, the issue of classification of rural road network , in addition to prepare a suggested for the classification for this network in Iraq , this classification account , the specifications and characteristics of rural roads, population, and the range taking of settlements , then this classification was applied on the rural road network in the Najaf province there are four categories of classification ,the first is major arterial rural roads divided into two major arterial and minor arterial roads , while the second category collected roads which was divided into minor arterial roads and main collected roads. The third category was represented by Local Roads , it has been divided into paved roads and unpaved, the f

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 29 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Repetition in Bushra Al Bustany Poetry: A Stylistic Study
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يعد التكرار من الظواهر الاسلوبية التي اتخذت دورها في بناء النص الشعري الحديث ويقوم على جملة من الاختيارات الاسلوبية لمادة دون أخرى ولصياغة لغوية دون سواها ، مما  يكشف في النهاية عن سرّ ميل هذا النص الشعري أو ذاك لهذا النمط الاسلوبي دون غيره ، وعلى الرغم من ان التكرار يعد مسألة عامة وشائعة في العمل الأدبي ، فأن الاهتمام بهذا الجانب من المنهج الاسلوبي يأتي من جهة كونه مهيمناً له ايحاءاته ودلال

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Publication Date
Thu May 18 2023
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Consider speech science in light of its purposes
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Considering the science of speech in the light of its purposes is an accurate scientific study that looks at it from its reality in which it originated, and its topic that it dealt with and its goals that it sought, and it follows its main course in the directions of approving the belief and inferring it, and repelling the objections to it, and this study comes to show the realism of the science of speech in its emergence Its subject and method, since its launch was from the reality of the Islamic nation and based on its intellectual needs, so its presence was necessary in the life of the Islamic nation because of its role in facing the challenges faced by the Islamic faith, and the dangers it was exposed to as a result of the intellectu

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
A study in Tunisian - Iraqi Relations and its role in determining strategies for dealing with conflict and peace situations
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If the State attaches great importance to its foreign relations and intends to strengthen them in order to ensure the achievement of the highest national goals and interests. External relations between countries are one of the most prominent features of foreign policy, which depends on a combination of internal and external factors, the modern relations between Tunisia and Tunisia, which goes back to the pre-independence of Tunisia, when Iraq was a supporter of Tunisia's independence from France in the 1940s, Although these relations did not cause any disturbance by the two countries, but they remained weak relations did not develop in all areas except the sports and cultural field, which we will determine the reasons and the pos

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 30 2014
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Social solidarity in religions        Three / critical study
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The researcher wanted to make an attempt to identify the foundations of social solidarity, to strengthen the bonds of brotherhood among society, and spread the causes of compassion in the hearts of its members.
       The researcher has taken a short course in the hearts of the beloved to hearts.

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2008
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
أصل التفاوت في الاتجاهات السياسية بين الناس
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أصل التفاوت في الاتجاهات السياسية بين الناس

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 27 2022
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
آيات الظل في القرآن الكريم ( دراسة موضوعية )
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The Holy Qur’an is considered the miracle of God Almighty on earth, that will remain until the Hour of Resurrection, in which are evidences of His Power, Glory be to Him, and its verses are extremely perfect in miraculousness, including the shadow verses in the Holy Qur’an

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 08 2024
Journal Name
Al-academy
Formal-semantic metaphor in print advertising design
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The research problem lay in the existing of this direct relation between the increasing and the big variety of the goods and the producing companies which mean the increase of the competition and the directing techniques of the commercial advertisings, which become spread everywhere and in an age characterized with the great varieties in the tests and the stances which requires the designers to seek designing accomplishments that are characterized with creativeness , seriousness and unsallity through the designer depending in constructing his / her texts and his/ her visual items on reference forms metaphors to achieve his / her designing purposes.
So the researcher through her primary flying study seek the identifying the manner of

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 15 2023
Journal Name
Al-academy
Aesthetic and expressive characteristics in the works of Jean Dubuffet
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The research presented the tagged (aesthetic and expressive characteristics in the works of Jean Dubuffet), so the research objective was: to know the aesthetic and expressive characteristics in the works of (Jean Dubuffet), and the research included four chapters. The aim of the research, the limits of the research, and the definition of terms. The second chapter included four topics. The first topic presented the aesthetic essence and style, while the second topic dealt with expressionism: approaches in concept and meaning.
While the third topic was preoccupied with presenting the aesthetic and expressiveness in the drawings of modernity and beyond, while the fourth topic dealt with: Jean Dubuffet and the experience of raw art. Th

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