تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
اللبرالية في الخطاب السياسي العراقي
The Internet makes the world like a small village. It has the ability to make groups of the same ideas, thoughts, and identity close to each other by gathering them in one place. It is a way to communicate and share information and opinion; shaping and sharing of comprising individuals with common interests and the participation of individuals in a fruitful dialogue results in achieving a set of goals promote ideas and mobilizing people about issues and events of common interests.
To address the relationship of the internet via interactive communication and its ability to achieve social capital and discuss issues and various social events, the study sees that the problem of the study could be formulated as follows:
Consid
... Show MoreSince I live in a society in which violence has become widespread, and killing among its own people flared up till they began to kill under the excuse of taking shelter, in these pages I would like to explain the status of taking shelter in the light of Islamic Law (Sharia), exploring scholars’ opinions in the legitimacy or illegitimacy of this issue according to the legal standards.
And, to acquaint people, and myself in the first place, with the true nature and the gravity of this issue; to expose it to those who are unaware of it; to remind those who are already aware of it. I would refute the fabrications, remove the suspicions which surround it untill it made the forbidden permissible; the wrong right. I would explain to those
I was invited to deliver a research paper on orphan care at the Center for Psychological and Educational Research. So I sought help from God Almighty and began writing a research in which I explained the meaning of the orphan, his condition, and the Holy Qur’an’s care for him. Therefore, I intended for the title of my humble research to be (Caring for the Orphan in the Islamic Perspective), since the papers were mixed up in the time of accidents, disasters, and deadly weapons, all of which reap men more than what we suffer. In this wounded country of ours, with civil wars, sectarianism, and insecurity, research began to solve the problem of orphans at a time when society had become an orphan with no shepherd. When I addressed this to
... Show MoreAl-sarf science is one of the most scientifically accurate and rich in branches. Because it depends on the one accent and how the changes happened inside this science (from an event associated with time or not associated). The people who create this science and were deep made a tough rule to can out of these sentences without reason. The aim of this research is to declare (The Impossible Phenomenon in the Preference Name) and this study is separated into two chapters:
Section one: it’s content of (Preference) in the base books and the scientists of linguists and the rules that authorized building in the name of Preference.
Section Two: Discussed the ways that possibly come in the name of Preference and resol
... Show MoreAbstract Rationality and freedom are fundamental elements of Western modernity. Although modern and contemporary Islamic thought has established its intellectual foundations on the fundamentals of intellectual thought that are at the core of its Islamic intellectual system, at the same time many of its intellectual products have been a response In spite of the fact that this Islamic intellectual response stands out from Western modernity as a negation or a positive attitude. The Islamic intellectual response differed in determining its position on Western modernity, depending on the nature of the historical stage that was The Islamic nation, as well as the nature of the challenge posed by Western civilization to other nations and other c
... Show MoreThe concept of education is not actually restricted to children or school students, but rather every person should be educated and followed up if he is intended to grow and prove, with effort and time allocation as to fulfill that goal. Thus , the current paper aims to a thinking education and to educate that thinking in teacher and it is not new to deal with the personal characteristics of teacher in the different scientific , and educational researches . But ,these research did not address the necessity of acquiring the skill of thinking, especially as it affects teacher's presentation of the content of the curriculum or even content outside the curriculum, and therefore, there is n
... Show Moreلا شك أن الموسيقى هي أقدر الفنون على خدمة الإنسان، وهي أرقى أنواع منشطات الحياة والصحة النفسية والعضوية، فالصحة النفسية والعضوية هي تناسق الشيء مع كل شيء الخلية مع الخلايا، والروح مع الأرواح، والإنسان مع الكون، كما تتناسق النغمة مع النغمات، والآلة مع الآلات .
The Baha'is are a group that belongs to the Baha'iya, the Baha'iya according to the encyclopedia of Religion Sciences is a modern religious sect appeared in existence in the middle of the ninetieth century. The number of their believers is around six million people of different parts of the world. its main center lies in Haifa city in Palestine
Despite the importance of this term in linguistics and rhetoric ancient and modern literary forms in general, is that it is possible to use in clarifying the foundations of the relationship hidden and manifest between shapes in models art adjacent or successive spatially, as the artwork plastic in general and sculpture in particular consists of formal structure somewhat similar to the structure in any language text and we can decode these blades structure and analyze the implications and come to their meanings and re-read and interpreted under the guidance of the concepts and techniques of neighboring developed primarily for linguistic analysis of texts or launched from their references. This split search to four chapters included the fi
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