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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 30 2019
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The provisions of the monkey in Islamic jurisprudence
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The provisions of the monkey in Islamic jurisprudence

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 23 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
الادارة الإدارة في الدولة العثمانية
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Continued Ottoman rule in the Arab world until the end of World War I in 1918, and during the four centuries of Ottoman control, care of the Ottomans install and floating their rule, and to prevent the Arabs from the establishment of a political entity separate from the people to facilitate the rule of the Arab world and to ensure the

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 17 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Hn-Domination in Graphs
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The aim of this article is to introduce a new definition of domination number in graphs called hn-domination number denoted by . This paper presents some properties which show the concepts of connected and independent hn-domination. Furthermore, some bounds of these parameters are determined, specifically, the impact on hn-domination parameter is studied thoroughly in this paper when a graph is modified by deleting or adding a vertex or deleting an edge.

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 25 2023
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Marriage sermon in Islamic jurisprudence
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Because it is obligatory for every Muslim to pay attention to the jurisprudence of his religion in order to achieve goodness thereby

He is guided to the paths of light.

One of the most important topics of Islamic jurisprudence is marriage. Because it relates to the life of every member of society, the engagement is one of the prerequisites for marriage, and whatever is related to what is important is important. It also contains many matters and details, so we wanted to write a study in it that understands its tasks so that the Muslim is aware of his religion.

And let him stay away from situations and customs that contradict our true religion. We have adopted approved books that are widely circulated among the majo

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 28 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Kinetic Study of Polymerization Isopropylacrylamide in Aqueous Solution
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An experimental of kinetics investigation of the solution free radical polymerization of isopropylacrylamide (IPAM) initiated with potassium persulfate (PPS) was conducted. The reactions were carried out at constant temperature of 60 °C in distilled water under unstirred and inert conditions. Using the well-known conversion vs. time technique, the effects of initiator and monomer concentration on the rate of polymerization (Rp) were investigated over a wide range. Under the conditions of our work, the orders 0.38 and 1.68 were found with respect to initiator and monomer, respectively. However, the rate of polymerization (Rp) is not straight forwardly corresponding monomer concentration. The value 46.11 kJ mol1 was determined as the o

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 15 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Urban Security in Cities Planning
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Cities have witnessed great changes since the planning of the first cities. This is due to the increase in population and problems in services which affect urban security. As such, urban security is directed and affected by the nature of city planning and the types of services. Besides, the kind of services plays an imminent place in providing urban security at all levels. Other factors that influence urban security can be limited to the increase of population, economic and social changes. This leads to losing urban control. This study will explore the historical chronology to identify weaknesses in urban planning since its dawn and reaching solutions to protect urban security. The importance of the research lies in achieving urban secur

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2005
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
الواقعية في قصص يهوشاع كتان
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الواقعية في قصص يهوشاع كتان

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 29 2019
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
آداب البحث في التراث العربي
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الادب في اللغة ملكة تقصي من قامت به عن كل ما يشبنه

او هو حسن الخلق وفعل المكارم

او الظرف وحسن التناول

او الالتزام لما يندب له الانسان(1) .

وقد كثر استخدام هذه اللفظة في التراث فقيل ادب الطبيب ، وادب الوزير، وادب القاضي ، وادب المائدة ، وادب الخط ، وادب المعلم والمتعلم ، وادب المعلم في نفسه وفي درسه ،وادب المتعلم مع استاذه وادب البحث والدرس.

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 29 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
السخرية والتندر في الشعر الأندلسي
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After this trip in the poetry of irony fields, which  restricted to the second Abbasid poetry .it is necessary to mention the most notable results that the research reached

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 22 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
الكيمياء الكيمياء في الحضارة الإسلامية
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This research takes its significance by referring to the participation of Arab Muslims in the knowledge of the chemical heritage, including the new writings and additions to this science; and thus made the way easy directly or indirectly for Europeans in the scientific knowledge of chemical, Starting from Khalid bin Yazid until the death of the last scientists Muslims in this area .

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