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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 12 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The servant leadership and its impact in organizational trust An analytical study in oil products distribution company / Baghdad
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Abstract

The research aims at the relationship between Servant leadership dimensions test as an independent variable and an organizational trust as a variable dependent. Thus it was necessary to answer the following question: Is there a correlation relationship and impact between Servant leadership dimensions and organizational trust? To investigate the contents of the answer, the researcher selected a group of employees in Oil Products Distribution Company / Baghdad. The researcher adopted the analytical descriptive approach in completing his research which dealt with a random sample of (190) individuals representing the research society out of the total number of (376) person from the middle and high Leaders. Depending

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2015
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Weightings of Imam Ibn al-Mundhir               In his middle book in Sunan, unanimity and difference - the book of prayer
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The Imam Ibn al-Mundhir is likely in Shafi'i school. He has outlined some issues and disagreed with his doctrine. And that the vocabulary on which he relied on the weighting is correct and correct and I choose which I say. One of the most likely issues is the delay of Isha prayer to the darkness. And other issues simplified in the folds of research and study.

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Influence of the Industrial Buyer Behavior on channels of distribution
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Abstract:

This study deals with the influence of the industrial buyer behavior in Channels of distribution. It concentrates on one section of management levels in the company. Which is that of administrative managers The research problem is attempt to study and analysis the influence of industrial buyer behavior in channels of distribution.. The aiming at achieving a number of applicable goals depending on one major hypotheses I set a questionnaire in collecting the data and information relating to the study، which was distributed to sample of ( 30) department manager heads of section states company .  In order to process the data resorted to many statistical methods such as arithmetic means the sta

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Role Of Information Technology In Enhancing Performance Evaluation And Responsibility Accounting (Empirical Study In Jordan Hotels )
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   This paper suggesting a new modern method to evaluate the performance of hotel industry at Jordan instead of the classical method used by the industry and that is Bench Marking , this method can be done by comparing the performance of hotel industry at two serial years which helps in calculating a standard performance .

  The industry can use this standard to identify the variance, which make the evaluation of performance easier and support the efforts to develop the hotel industry at all levels and enable to give high quality services to customers.

    The study believed that this situation would not be achieved unless the hotel industry will app

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Proposed Measure for Effect Size in Mediation Analysis with Solution to Some Mediation Process Problems
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In this paper, the effect size measures was discussed, which are useful in many estimation processes for direct effect and its relation with indirect and total effects. In addition, an algorithm to calculate the suggested measure of effect size was suggested that represent the ratio of direct effect to the effect of the estimated parameter using the Regression equation of the dependent variable on the mediator variable without using the independent variable in the model. Where this an algorithm clear the possibility to use this regression equation in Mediation Analysis, where usually used the Mediator and independent variable together when the dependent variable regresses on them. Also this an algorithm to show how effect of the

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 11 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Disease Patterns and outcomes of Neonatal Admissions at Raparin Pediatric Teaching Hospital in Erbil City
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Objectives: This study aims to determine the disease’s patterns and outcomes of admission among neonates hospitalized at the neonatal care unit in Erbil City, and using the findings as a baseline for neonate’s morbidity and mortality assessment in the future. Methodology: A retrospective study carried out at neonatal care unit of Raparin pediatric teaching hospital. An instrument for data collection developed by researcher included (age, gender, cause of admission, diagnosis and outcome upon discharge and causes of death). Content validity of the instrument was determined through the use of panel ex

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 11 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Impact of Different Degrees of Uterine Prolapse on Sexual Function of Women at Teaching Hospitals in Al-Hilla City
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Background: Women sexuality is basic right and it plays a major role in women's Health aspects. Up is one of the factors that lead to sexual dysfunction while the incidence of it is rising as UP severity being more. Objectives: To assess the impact of different degrees of uterine prolapse on sexual function of women at teaching hospitals in AL-Hilla City. Methodology: A descriptive analytical study was conducted from 1ST Feb to 10th Jun /2014 to assess the impact of different degrees of uterine prolapse on sexual function for women who attend to consultant clinic at teaching hospitals in AL-Hilla City

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 07 2016
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
Determination of mercury level in skin whitening creams: Determination of mercury level in skin whitening creams
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This study included the determination of mercury level in twelve samples of skin whitening cream available in local market in Baghdad by atomic absorption spectrophotometer ,all the samples analyzed was contained a detectable amount of mercury. The lowest concentration of mercury in the sample C (Top Shirley) was 0.482 μg/g, and the higher concentration was 29.54 μg/g in the sample J (Norseen) .It was also noted that the samples H (whitening speckle removing day cream) and K (whitening speckle removing night cream) did not mention in the label significance the name of the country of origin and date of the validity of the product.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2007
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
دور تنقيب البيانات Data Mining في زيادة أداء المنظمة (( دراسة تحليلية في المصرف الصناعي ))
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تمهيد

غالبا ما يكون تعامل المنظمات المالية والمصرفية مع الزبائن بشكل أساسي مما يتطلب منها جمع كميات هائلة من البيانات عن هؤلاء الزبائن هذا بالإضافة الى ما يرد اليها يوميا من بيانات يجعلها أمام أكداس كبيرة من البيانات تحتاج الى جهود جبارة تحسن التعامل معها والاستفادة منها بما يخدم المنظمة.

ان التعامل اليدوي مع مثل هذه البيانات دون استخدام تقنيات حديثة يبعد المنظمة عن التط

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 01 2008
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
دراسة في مصداقية العائد على الاستثمار كمؤشر مالي لأسهم الشركات المدرجة في أسواق البورصة
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لطالما تُبنى قرارات الاستثمار في أسهم الشركات المدرجة في أسواق البورصة على خلفية المؤشرات المالية لها والتي عادةً مايتم إصدارها في نشرات سنوية معتمدة من قبل تلك الاسواق، إذ غالباً مايقوم المحللون الماليون بالاستعانه بها لتوجيه المستثمرين لإتخاذ القرارات المتعلقة بشراء أو بيع أسهم هذه الشركات.

لكنه على الرغم من ذلك تحدث إنهيارات كبيرة في أسواق البورصة بين فترة وآخرى وخير مثال على ذلك ما أ

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