تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
Summary
The book (Fatah al-Rahman reveals what is ambiguous in the Qur’an), which is a book of verbal similarities that tries to touch the Qur’an expression, and the subtle differences between its expressions and expressions. It appeared when it appeared in many chapters, from which I chose to delete in monolithic letters such as Ba and Ta, and to heal and delete in non-monosymbols such as (that) and (may) and (no), so the search came to two chapters The first is for deleting the monolithic letters, and the second is for deleting non-monosyllabic letters, preceded by introductory discussions revolving around the linguistic and idiomatic definition of deletion, a brief translation of the
... Show Moreבמחקר הזה ניתחנו מספר נאומים של שמעון פרס, אנחנו התמקדנו בהשפעה והשכנוע אצל שמעון פרס ואיך הוא יכול להעביר את המסרים של נאומיו בסגנון פרגמטי כדי להגיע ללבו של הציבור.
גם כן, התמקדנו בסגנון הפוליטי שהוא חושב כי התחום הזה צריך להיות ברור מול הציבור וגם כן מול דעת הקהל הבינלאומי מתוך השימוש במונחים בעלי השפעה ושכנוע להגיע למטרות המבוקשות.
במלים אחרות, שמעון פרס, לעתים, מתמקד בשפה מליצית ויעמוד הרב
... Show MoreThe current research aims at testing test the relationship and the impact of strategic leadership (strategic vision, Core competencies , human capital, organizational culture and Ethical practices) in the talent management (to attract talent, performance management talent, developing talent and retain talent) among managers in the Ministry of Science and Technology Iraq, and figuring out a number of recommendations to the ministry to help achieve its desired objectives, and to clarify the relationship between the variables to find the main and secondary aim of the research two major hypotheses have been formed which split into ten sub-hypotheses. Collecting data on a form questionnaire has been relied on as an essenti
... Show MoreStrategic leadership is the main source to enable organizations of excellence in light of turbulent environment, it is also the capabilities of organizational renewal organization’s ability to anticipate changes that take place or possible occurrence.
As a result of the many changes that characterize the environment where they operate researched hospitals, many of them began looking for ways to help it achieve a lot of their own competitive advantages.
The subject of organizational renewal capabilities of subjects that are not obvious interest in the Arab environment in general and Iraq in particular, and longer. The problem of the research and field presence of deficiencies in
... Show MoreInterested in many scholars and reseachers the subject of the media and means varied his roleinfluential in the definition of the public of issues and political, cultural, social and because of its spread wide and ability to address the people of all levels effect them in the formation consciousness of those issues and types of this awareness is an awareness of the tax, contribute to media formation consciousness tax through the definition of people what tax and importance of the role of its revenues to supplement the state budget by posting tax laws and regulations of applied and all what respect process account tax, to be in charge of the tax familiar enough about this, which avoid being cheated taxmisleading when rev
... Show MoreThe current research aims to identify the impact of the amputated story style in the collection of sixth graders in elementary in the written expression subject.
The researcher, intentionally, chose Al-Ameen primary hybrid school which belongs to the directorate of education in Baghdad / Karkh first. The number of people of the sixth grade three classes. The researcher chose the two classes randomly to represent one of the experimental group, the number (32) pupils (male and female) have studied the expression subject by the amputated story style. Other control group, the number (32) pupils studied according to the traditional method.
The researcher prepared the lesson plans and presented to the experts, the researc
... Show MoreEmotional exhaustion considered one of the critical factors in the formation and composition of organizational behavior of individuals within organizations, as well as social behavior and psychological, and emotional exhaustion is one of the three components of burnout, as well as depersonalization (cynicism) and low achievement, the emergence of research relevant to this concept began at the beginning of the seventies of the twentieth century, then started to become clear features in the eighties it. This research aims to build intellectual framework for draining emotional exhaustion through highlight on most important philosophical contents, as well as review and analysis of some models associated with this concept, and then a
... Show Moreهدف هذا البحث الى التعرف على أثر فاعلية تكنولوجيا التحول الرقمي في تحسين كفاءة الخدمة التأمينية في شركات التأمين العامة في العراق من خالل تكنولوجيا التحول الرقمي في العملية التأمينية "الترويج لمنتج التأمين,تقديم طلب التأمين,االكتتاب ,تسوية الخسائر" ولتحقيق هذا الهدف تم تصميم استمارة استقصاء وزعت في المجتمع المبحوث والتي تمثل متخذي القرار في الشركات المبحوثة قيد البحث وكان من اهم نتائج البحث وجود عالقة بين ا
... Show MoreAbstract:
The aim of the current study lies in showing and demonstrating the effect of the independent variable of organizational integrity with its dimensions represented by (organizational optimism, organizational trust, organizational integrity, organizational sympathy) on the dependent variable of strategic drifts through its dimensions represented by (organizational culture, leadership, innovation, strategic planning) .The analytical descriptive approach has been adopted and the questionnaire has been used as a tool to obtain data and information from the sample of (57) people who are at the administrative levels (seni
... Show MoreDespite the importance of sustainable development and its dimensions in developing performance and supporting competitive advantage in economic units, there is a gap and lack of coordination between Combined Assurance providers (management, internal audit, external audit) to report on sustainable development, and the research aims to propose a model for the Combined Assurance report to achieve development sustainable development in the Iraqi economic units, especially the Baghdad Municipality, enables assurance providers to coordinate efforts that lead to the achievement of Combined Assurance, The research found the proposed model for the Combined Assurance report in achieving sustainable development in the Iraqi economic units, es
... Show More