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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 04 2010
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The effect of two treatment methods in the gaining of fourth grade students in geography object.
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research aim :
- The research aimed to investigate the effect of two treatment
methods in the gaining of fourth grade students in geography
object.
- Research hypothesis
 there are no statistically significant differences at the level of ( 0.05 )
in the average level of achievement in geography between the first
experimental group ( strengthening lessons ) and the second group
( re- teaching )
 no individual differences statically significant at the level of ( 0.05 )
in the average level achievement in geography object of the second
experimental group ( re- teaching ) and the first experimental group
( strengthening lesson )
 the research sample : the researcher selected randomly Baghdad

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 27 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Effectiveness of PDEODE Strategy in Acquiring Historical Concepts in the Subject of History for Students of the Fourth Literary Grade
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The research aims to know (the effect of the pdeode strategy) in acquiring historical concepts among the fourth-grade literary female students in the history module. To achieve the goal of this research, the following null hypothesis was formulated. There is no statistically significant difference at the level of (0.05) between the average scores of the experimental group students, who study history according to the PDEODE strategy, and the average scores of the control group students who study the same module in the traditional way of the historical concepts acquisition test.The researcher chose the experimental method for the current research and adopted the experimental design of partial control with a post-test, which depends on the

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Impact Of Application Of Jit In The Banking Sector On The Quality Of Banking Service
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Abstract 

          The research the impact of the application of some of the production system tools in the specified time, which can be adapted in the service sectors (banking sector) over the improvement and increase the quality of banking services, and highlights the research problem in the low quality of banking services provided to customers because of the reliance on traditional banking systems in the provision of services Because of the lack keep pace with global developments in the banking industry, and the goal of research is to clarify the applicability of the production system in the time specified in the service sector and th

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2016
Journal Name
Al-academy
Calendar art activities in private schools Secondary School in Baghdad: سناء عبد الامير حسين
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The technical activities designed to highlight the creations of students by providing activities appropriate to their abilities and capabilities within and outside the school, which is a way for the development of learning and learner behavior aimed at directing guidance educationally and artistically.As a result of the efforts of modern educational activities, art has become part of the philosophy of the modern school and part of the modern curriculum. Because it is enough to configure the practices and habits of a satisfactory and acceptable, and is characterized by precision, order and beauty.Through the researcher with a survey of previous studies that dealt with art activities and found that all studies have been confined to a calen

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 15 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Impact of Developmental Leadership on Adaptive Performance- Analytical Research General Directorates of Education in Baghdad province
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The research aims to reveal the impact of developmental leadership in its dimensions (ideal model, interest in employees, inspiration and motivation) as an independent variable in achieving adaptive performance in its dimensions (Creative problem solving, learning and motivation, Training efforts, adaptability, work stress management, dealing with crises and emergencies) as a dependent variable, and the research aims to enhance the quality of developmental leadership in the research sample through this leadership style, which is a modern style and is still under research and study with a focus on the benefit of adaptive performance From a psychological and organizational research sample consisting of (106) respondents from the middle adm

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Spatial Distribution of Heavy Element in Erbil's Municipal Landfills by Using GIS
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Untreated municipal solid waste (MSW) release onto land is prevalent in developing countries. To reduce the high levels of harmful components in polluted soils, a proper evaluation of heavy metal concentrations in Erbil's Kani Qrzhala dump between August 2021 and February 2022 is required. The purpose of this research was to examine the impact of improper solid waste disposal on soil properties within a landfill by assessing the risks of contamination for eight heavy elements in two separate layers of the soil by using geoaccumulation index (I-geo) and pollution load index (PLI) supported. The ArcGIS software was employed to map the spatial distribution of heavy element pollution and potential ecological risks. The I-geo values in summe

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 24 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The developmental role of the social worker in child care
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This research discusses the developmental role of the social worker in providing care for children at risk. The research is desicriptive in nature include both the theoretical and field aspects. The theoretical aspect focuses on the characteristics and requirements of these children and what forms and implications are exposed to them by society, what is the developmental role of the social worker in the rehabilitation of this group. As for the field aspect, the study sample took a (40) social workers who working in Aiwa institutions inside Baghdad. A questionnaire of (14) questions was used as tool to collect the needed data.

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 14 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Role of Ethical Leadership in Achieving Comprehensive Quality Standards in Public Education Schools in Al-Ardha Governorate
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Abstract

The aim of the research is to identify the role of ethical leadership in achieving comprehensive quality standards in public education schools in the Al-Ardha governorate. To achieve this goal, the descriptive approach was used, the researcher developed a questionnaire consisting of (35) items, divided into two sections: the first one is related to ethical leadership includes (17) items, and the second section relates to total quality management includes (18) items. The research sample consisted of (405) teachers from the stages of public education. The results showed that the level of ethical leadership practice (ethical personal characteristics, ethical administrative features, teamwork, and human rela

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 02 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Affect of learning the bag in the acquisition of historical concepts for students in the fifth grade literary history
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The  adopted method in the teaching of history is conservation and indoctrination in all grades, and this will lead to a lack of students interact with teachers in the course of the lesson, and poor use of teachers to questions that raise students' thinking during the lesson, which leads to a lack of interest in the topic of the lesson and wasting opportunities contribution making it the teacher at the center of the educational process, and to provide arrogating the researcher to contribute to teaching style with the belief that the use of this method of teaching could lead to overcome the difficulties and problems faced by the teaching material.

And there are educational complexes integrated approac

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 12 2025
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE EMPLOYMENT OF WOMAN IN SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT DECLARATIONS: (An Analytical Study of Road Advertising in Baghdad)
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Woman is the first target of social advertising, because most of these advertisements are primarily belong to them. This paper which is entitled "Social Responsibility for the Employment of Woman in Sustainable Development Declarations, An Analytical Study of Road Advertising in Baghdad" focuses on the use of woman in advertising. This aspect shows that some people see that advertisement is a mirror to what’s found in society such as woman’s behaviors in her everyday life and so on, while other people see that as long as the public wants those advertisings, they are free to choose what they prefer. They think that the shameful advertisements are natural and unavoidable. These vie

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