تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
Abstract
The economic entities view about human resources has been changed from traditional view based on the resources as one of production factors required for achieving the activities that lead to create products in turn for financial substitute embodied in wages, toward contemporary view consider human resources the most important richest investments, a real source for continuing, developing, and achieving competitive advantage for the entity.
From that point, this research dealt with studying the subject of disclosing investment information of human resources in the financial reports of Iraqi economic entities. The research ended with stating a suggestive model for the
... Show Moreجهن آشبيري ىه شاعر ما بعد الحداثة كتب قريدة " صهرة شخرية في مرآة محدبة " في عام .3791 يعد الفن والتأمل الذاتي عنررين ميمين في األدب ، كما تم تقديمو في قريدة آشبيري ، وتبين أن نيجو النقدي تجاه الفن والتأمل الذاتي كان مركز جذب من عقهل ما بعد الحداثة خالل عرره ، الذي انخرط في نقد عمل آشبيري بدبب طبيعتو المربكة أو كتابتو. إحدى سمات شعراء ما بعد الحداثة ىي انخراطيم في االنعكاسية الذاتية والتناص. من خالل ىذه العناصر ، ينقل
... Show MoreThe economy is one of the pillars of State infrastructure the Marinian (668-869/1269-1465 m) with its multiple sectors with a direct impact on social and economic act to individuals, groups or in the vicinity of the countryside and the cities
In the era of the digital economy, public organizations need to consolidation the capabilities of entrepreneurial alertness to reduce the risks of sudden transformations and changes, and to find effective mechanisms to discover and invest in environmental opportunities proactively, as this concern has become a knowledge gap in public sector institutions, the current research aims to identify the role of digital competence in influencing on entrepreneurial alertness in the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI), the descriptive analytical approach was used as a research method to describe and analyze the main research variables. digital competence as an explanatory variable includes three dimensions: digital infrastructure, digital integration, and d
... Show MoreThe phenomenon of Masculine and feminine is one of the important grammatical studies because of their influence on the sentence structure, words come either masculine and feminine type when using one of them in place of the other , this displacement might cause distribution in the sentence itself because,
Poetry occupied a prestigious position for the rulers in AlAndalus, especially the state of the sects in which the kings, who
were originally poets, ruled. This is why they made the poets
close to them, and their court was never empty of them, they
even specified a day in which valuable gifts were given to them.
Poems of praise and love were written,
Urban planning task and the control of constructional planning and urban management for cities considers the main tasks that the government takes care off. The paper discusses the concept of power from historical view of ancient Islamic cities to discover the strategies of urban management that the Islamic city adopt and to employ it in contemporary cities ,the more problems that modern cities suffer from which appears through poorness of urban context ,belongs to the loss of balance exists between the different faces of power that takes the tasks of urban management .therefore enhancement of urban environment is being through re-back that balance in administrative structures that make the cities go ahead . So the attention has b
... Show MoreThis research aims to test the relationship between "relational leadership as an independent variable and organizational energy as a dependent variable. The current research variables are among the recent and important variables for the development of organizations, and for the purpose of explaining the relationship and influence between the variables, a set of goals has been formulated, including providing the interested and scientific and theoretical information explaining the nature of the variables The research, and the extent to which its causes are reflected in the research sample to increase the interest of the research organization’s organization and make it more appropriate to the required performance in light of a cha
... Show MoreAbstract:
The aim of the research is to demonstrate the impact of the professional specialization of the audit companies in the detection of fraud in the financial statements of the economic units listed in the Iraqi market for securities for the period 2014-2015 through the application of the model (Carcello) to test the hypothesis of research on the impact of professional specialization of audit companies in the detection of fraud in lists The effect of the variables was revealed through the use of statistical models of logistic regression model and correlation coefficient. After testing the hypotheses of the research, a number of conclusions were reached. The most important was the existence of a signi
... Show MoreThe revolution of technology in the 21st century has changed radically the
climate of opinion concerning second language education. In order to excel in
today’s world, teachers and learners need to adopt new roles and be equipped with
new skills and competencies that go beyond the basic ones of listening, speaking,
reading, and writing; skills that cannot be gained if teachers teach mere academic
subjects, and students are evaluated on how well they have learnt the minute sub
skills in those content areas.
This session will touch upon several skills which may be considered the
new basics of the 21st century. Among these skills are: autonomy, active learning,
critical thinking, cooperative learning, and digita