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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 12 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
الاقطاع الإقطاع في انكَلترا في القرن الحادي عشر
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All aspects of life are controlled directly or indirectly by the church. The Crusades has the essential role in the weakness of feudalism because a lot of slaves escaped to participate in these wars and the Masters were unable to prevent them since the church blessed these Wars and the Participants

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 20 2019
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Democratic systems in Europe Harmonic experience in governance
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The systems of governance in Europe are characterized by ancient democratic systems that have developed and developed through a long history of political conflicts that have emerged from a social reality that feeds them and receives the resulting effects. This is an achievement that has been achieved after the sacrifices and great efforts in formulating models of good governance through which to realize the aspirations of their peoples. . The democratic system operates within a balanced mechanism of two competing parties to manage and direct the work of the government and the parliament. The parties that achieve the majority in the elections carry out the functions of the government supported by their parliamentary base belonging to one

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2016
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Dictionaries in the News.. In the light of Semiotic analysis,
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We refer in this research into linguistic binaries, try rounding of simiaei news analysis. It is known that there are branches of Linguistics called social Linguistics, divided into communicative Linguistics and media. Perhaps the best justification for the inclusion of a new curriculum in media studies is a semiotic analysis of the news. I›ve turned the speech, language and communication studies in relation to different disciplines, many research projects, and returned only old curriculum, speed shift in thought, proportional to the revolution in information and communication technology, for reality imposed on the entire world, researchers are the first affected by this enormous humanitarian Almanza. Alsimiaaeon still shy away from an

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 14 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
الجواري في التاريخ ودورها في الحياة الأدبية والثقافية
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The odalisque ( chambermaid) is every  owned woman (possessed ). Her master has owned her either by buying her from the slavers who were travelling around in the lands to buy the odalisques and then selling them or they are captives of war.

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 14 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
دراسات دراسات في تاريخ الإقطاع في العصور الإسلامية
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        The scholars  are differed  about  the beginning of   feudal,some  says that it has been known  already in  the  oldest   Babylonic  period . while others   think   that has been of the Fourth  Century .some   scholars . believe that it has  began in the  time  of  the caliph al-mutwakil   (232-247 A.H) who made  anew social class from  the  military to support  him The orientlists   wrote  about the differences  between  the feudal  in Islamic  period   and The feudal in Europe

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2015
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Development and innovation in the theory of singing   In the Umayyad era
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The Umayyad era is characterized by the diversity of the subjects and their multiplicity in the literary phenomena. These phenomena are singing phenomena, although they were known in previous eras, they took a distinctive form in the era.
  In this light, the researcher tried to prove that singing theory in the Umayyad period was characterized by development and renewal. The research was entitled (evolution and renewal in the theory of singing in the Umayyad era).

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Slums and its implication on security in Baghdad
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The research team seeks to study the phenomena of random housing in Iraqi society in general and Baghdad city in particular by standing on the causes behind this phenomena and its relation with security situation in Baghdad. The researchers adopted a theoretical and practical framework. The main objective is to diagnose the risks caused by the escalation of slums in Baghdad city. 

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 06 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
حركة حركة الترجمة في الأندلس وتأثيرها في أوربا
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Muslims in Andalusia showed Metzada interested in building their civilization, including the interest in the translation of books in Arabic and Molvat to Latin America and the Castilian language, as well as that of Andalusia is one of the most important scientific centers to transport heritage of Arab and Islamic civilization to Europe, therefore Andalus rulers have tended to translate the Arab Science under the supervision of specialized scientists they know the language and heritage,

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 30 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Contradictions in experience of Criticism in Andalus Poetry
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Metaphor has been occupied first place among eloquent methods to build metaphors;
poetry with the latter becomes senseless thing. Metaphor is necessary part of energy that
sustains the poetry. Sentence of metaphor regarded more eloquent than the reality since it
does not conduct directly to the meaning , but rather get to it indirectly. Metaphor is
considered one of the most tools for the poet since it is a means of expression about his
sensation and feelings . Andalus paid concerns over metaphors as that being incited by their
country beauty and nature. The poet might resort to contradiction as to picture contraries
within himself.
Through pictures of contradictions depicted by the poets , it has explained that t

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 03 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Babylon Center For Humanities Studies
قراءة في رواية " بوق في وادي " لسامي ميخائيل
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