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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 28 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Comparative Study on Association Rule Mining Algorithms on the Hospital Infection Control Dataset
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Administrative procedures in various organizations produce numerous crucial records and data. These
records and data are also used in other processes like customer relationship management and accounting
operations.It is incredibly challenging to use and extract valuable and meaningful information from these data
and records because they are frequently enormous and continuously growing in size and complexity.Data
mining is the act of sorting through large data sets to find patterns and relationships that might aid in the data
analysis process of resolving business issues. Using data mining techniques, enterprises can forecast future
trends and make better business decisions.The Apriori algorithm has bee

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Alienation in Adolescence in J.D. Salinger's The Catcher in the Rye
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Alienation is a feeling that inflicts people especially adolescents due to certain reasons. As they grow up, adolescents tend to face certain psychological disturbances. They somehow feel indifferent to their surroundings and hence it would be quite hard for them to express their notions in the reality world they live in. So they either rebel against society and become aggressive members or they might console themselves in an alienated world that they create in their minds.

   This paper depicts J.D. Salinger's (1919-2010) novel The Catcher in the Rye where its protagonist, Holden Caulfield, is an adolescent who feels there is no linkage or connection with the traits of his society. He is a teenager who

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Organiational challenges and thier effect of organiational rituals
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Administrative leaders conserned to understand the challenges which are faced their organizations and try to assimilate and adapt with the extent that achieves to it efficiency and effective- ess, and standing face to face to faceing any challenge.that threaten it’s existence thro- ugh using modern inputs reached to that level of these  challenges and applied the study on a sample deliberate random from teaching hospitals of the Directorate General for Health Baghdad Karkh, and the Directorate General for Health Baghdad Rusafa and the City of Medicine , The importance of t

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of the of Six Sigma to improve the performance of dentists in albaladeat specialized Dental
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The research aims at introducing the principles of six sigma and if it had any effect of the dimensions of six sigma to improve the performance of the dentists and the availability of an appropriate environment in the center Specialist respondent to the application of six sigma principles and how to adopt Specialized Center under the dimensions of the six sigma and if there informed enough with the management methodology six sigma, and if you can adopt six sigma as one of the entrances to reduce medical errors. So  Search creating six sigma five dimensions and are (the commitment and support of senior management, the focus  on the patient, continuous improvement, training and civil, and infrastructure) as a variable int

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Alternative Sanctions and their Impact on Societal Security: A Field Study in the Directorate of Juveniles Reformatory in Baghdad
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Crime is one of the most severe challenges facing States, and strives to find preventive measures, reduce its seriousness, and prevent them; due to developments, crimes have increased, and emerging new patterns of crimes, there is an urgent need to prevent crimes and reduce their effects. Modernizing its punitive system and diverting it to correctional rehabilitative justice to redress the prejudice caused by the crime and rehabilitate the convicted person by using alternative measures to short-term imprisonment. This research emphasizes alternative sanctions' value to minimizing short-term imprisonment penalties and their impact on societal security through several goals like, the negative consequences, justifications, and alternatives

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sat Feb 02 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Bajila role in the Arabic- Islamic history in the early period of Islam: Bajila role in the Arabic- Islamic history in the early period of Islam
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Abstract:
Bajila regarded as descending from Anmar Ibn Nizar. Al-Masudi accepts
Bajila and Khath”am as being of Nizar, and asserts that it was only out of the
enmity that they were said to be from the Yemen.
Al-Ya”qubi tries to harmonize this by assuming that Anmar married a
women of the Yemen and that his sons Bajila and Khath”am are thus
connected to the people of this region only through their mothers line.
Bajila embraced Islam in the period of the prophet. Omar 1 forced this
tribe to go to Iraq instead of Al-_Sham, and gave them the quarter of Al- Saw
ad. Then they prohibited from that quarter by given money as reward that
made them against omar1.
This tribe assisted the forth rightly guided ca

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
DETECTION OF HEAVY METALS POLLUTION INTYPES OF MILK SAMPLES IN BAGHDAD MARKETS: DETECTION OF HEAVY METALS POLLUTION INTYPES OF MILK SAMPLES IN BAGHDAD MARKETS
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The levels of lead (pb), copper (cu), cobalt (co) and cadmium (cd) were determined in different kinds of milk and the health risks were evaluated. The mean levels were 0.73±0.21, 0.06±0.01, 0.12±0.01 and 0.14±0.01 ppm for these metals respectively. The levels of pb and cu were found to be insignificant differences (p<0.05), whereas the levels of co and cd, were no significant differences (p>0.05). The dry and liquid kinds of milk were different significantly (p<0.05), whereas the original, was no significant differences (p>0.05). The values for all metals were more than one. The metals pb and cd were detected at highest concentrations in most dry and liquid milk samples.

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 06 2016
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
DETECTION OF IRON AVAILABITITY OF WHEAT FLOUR PRODUCED IN BAGHDAD CITY MILLS: DETECTION OF IRON AVAILABITITY OF WHEAT FLOUR PRODUCED IN BAGHDAD CITY MILLS
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In the present study, a total of 245 flour samples were collected from 49 mills on both sides of Baghdad city (Al- Karkh and Al- Resafa), during the period from 1/6 - 1/12/ 2015 to detect the prolportion of iron added to the flour samples. It is found that only 45% of mills produced flour contain the prescribed percentage of iron (30-60 ppm) while 51.9% of the mills produced flour at rate is less or much more than the prescribed percentage, while only 4.1% of the mills were not added iron to the flour.

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 09 2015
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
Variations Heavy Metals Concentrations in Tigris River in Baghdad City.: Variations Heavy Metals Concentrations in Tigris River in Baghdad City.
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The aim of the research is the detection of heavy metals using (Inductively coupled Plasma ICP) for samples in Tigris river at intakes of water treatment plants Baghdad (Sharq dejla, Al-Wathba, Al-Wahda, and Al-Dora) and samples at Tigris banks near (Al-Adhamya, Al-Shuhda bridge and al-Jadrya).
All the recorded results were fitted with Iraqi standers No. 25 in 1967 for all samples with heavy metals (arsenic Ar, Cadmium Cd, Chromium Cr, Zinc Zn, Lead Pb, Copper Cu, Nickel Ni, Manganese Mn, Ferrous Fe) where all concentration were lower than standard values except Cadmium (0.01- 0.014) in plants intakes and (0.027- 0.048) in river samples while the standard value is (0.005).
Other tests such as chemical oxygen demand and oil &

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 28 2022
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
The protest movements in Sudan and their role in the political and social transformation
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This study investigates the factors that led to the outbreak of protest movements in Sudan, since Sudan’s independence in 1956 until December 2018. The study aims to identify the role of protests in bringing about political and social transformations in Sudan, besides identifying the factors that help in the success or failure of the governments that resulted from those protests, with special emphasis on the challenges of the government of the 2018 revolution. The main results of the study reveal that the December 2018 protests are the largest in term of numbers, and witness huge participation of youth and women, and the slogans raised were national and comprehensive. However, the challenges that the transitional government is going th

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