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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2015
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Views of Amadi and Gorgani In the metaphor in their books budget and mediation
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The research revolves around the views of Al-Amadi and Al-Jurjani in the metaphors in their books, balancing Abu Tammam and Al-Bohtari, and mediation between Mutanabi and his opponents. And others whose poems were cited. One of the most important things we have reached is: the critics release the term metaphor to take sometimes and mean to take the meaning or steal it, and analyzed the evidence of metaphor as a rhetorical art in the light of what he heard about the former Arab poets, rejected the unusual metaphor out of use, and reclaimed the familiar metaphor. The research after submitted to the topics are: the first: Al-Amadi and his budget book, the second: Al-Jurjani and his book of mediation, and the third is divided into three dema

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 20 2019
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
The future role of the military establishment in the political life of Egypt
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There are certain dates in the history of nations that have their effects on them ,and the 25th of January 2011 is considered one of them in the history of the state of Egypt .Since this date Egypt has passed through many events that led to changes in the political life and its actors . New rolls has arisen for actors that didn't take part in the political life before so clearly ,like the military establishment which started to practice more prominent political roll, till it became the most important actor in the political life of Egypt .This establishment tried to institutionalize its roll through constitutional means ,considering that controlling the authority is the only alternative to safeguard the state which we are trying to study

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 30 2019
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Fairness in the ancestral quarrel at the meeting of subordinate and representative metaphors
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Having signed my eyes on the manuscript labeled (equity in the ancestral quarrel at the meeting of subordinate and representative metaphors) I was impressed by the process of achieving it; That manuscript came to light; to be seen by specialists in Arabic rhetoric and students of science, and supplement the library of rhetoric one of the sources ..

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 30 2008
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Return in the gift and its contraindications in Islamic jurisprudence and Iraqi law
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In his life, a person engages in different types of verbal and actual dispositions that result in various effects, some of which are necessary and not valid, such as selling, and some are not necessary for one of the two contracting parties, such as a mortgage or both, such as lending and agency. However, there are some actions that are sometimes necessary and not necessary at other times, such as a gift that indicates in its simplest sense. Owning money for another without compensation, it is one of the doors of benevolence and benevolence, and it is one of the attributes of perfection with which God, may He be glorified and exalted be He, described Himself. - And if this analogy is the difference - and distanced himself from greed, the

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 26 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Serum Zinc and Copper Changes in Male Infertility
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Objective: The aim of this study to detect the correlation between trace elements such as zinc, copper and
spermatogenesis, sperm viability and motility.
Methodology: Serum and semen samples were collected from one hundred twenty patients with age ranged (20-
50 years) attending the high institute for Embryo Research and Infertility Treatment/ Baghdad University, in
addition to thirty fertile males their age comparable to that of patients. The period of this study was from June
2004 until the end of October 2004.
Results: The result of routine seminal fluid analysis of all infertile males was divided according to WHO, (1999) limit
into four groups: Asthenospermia(A), Asthenoteratospermia(AT), Oligoasthenoteratospermi

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Effect of Bifidobacterium Probiotic in the Treatment of Giardiasis Infection in Mice
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Metronidazole therapy is recommended in the treatment of giardiasis,athough some clinical reports mention the resistance to this drug from many pathogens. Many studies were applied to show the effect of probiotic to prevent or to heal diseases of gastrointestine, but only few is known about probiotic activity against infections of protozoa. This study aims to evaluate the efficiency of Bifidobacterium against infection with Giardia lamblia   in experimental mice. It was found that daily application of viable Bifidobacterium cells with a single dose (0.1ml∕mice∕day) significantly reduced the shedding of Giardia lamblia parasite cysts in feces, and infection completely disappeared at the da

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Social Manifestation in India in the Islamic period
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The Social life contain an important side from the inherited Civilization to any
nation, is distinguished by activity and zeal. The old Indian is characterized with
closed and solidify socilal systems. This state had its influences on the activities of the
social movment. It astonished the conquered mushins – Arab to the India from the end
of the first centuny A.H we tried to change it by good works and made them become
aware, so this made radical active in the social India in Islamic period which is form
humanbeing nobilitie and their active deal in the society.

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 13 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Psychological Well-being for Elderly People at Geriatric Centers in Baghdad City
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Objective: To evaluate the levels of Psychological well-being among elderly people and To find out the relationship between socio-demographic characteristics and psychological well-being among elderly people who live in Geriatric centers. Methodology: A descriptive study in which evaluation approach is applied to achieve the objectives of the study the period of the study was from 29 December 2014 to 25 may 2015, The sample is non-probability (purposive sample) of 60 elderly people and selecte according to criteria of sample and for the purpose of the study , ( 40 ) are from Al Rashad and ( 20 ) Sleek

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 20 2019
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Development and democracy in the Republic of Korea study in dialectic relationship
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After its 35-year occupation of Japan and the US occupation, Korea has set its sights on a long-term goal of building its country and establishing its foundations, unobtrusive and unchecked by the problems and wars that have stood in the way of its goal, surpassing all odds and achieving the best results. The most powerful Asian and global economies, which gained the respect of the world and its appreciation of the experience has become referred to as boys

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 30 2019
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Scientific miracle in the verse walking and eating In Surat Al - Mulk
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The research includes the study of the scientific miracle in the verse: (It is the one who made you the earth humiliation and walked in their positions and eat from the living and to the publication of the human body and in the Qur'an) And mental and spiritual. The research also pointed to the tight link between the miracle of the precedent in the Holy Quran and the miracle of the divine power in the book of the Infinite Universe to give each miracle testimony of delivery and ratification of the other. The research included after the introduction, the first topic included four demands, which included basic concepts: - Definition of scientific miracle and its importance in the Koran, and the significance of the universal verses in the Kor

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