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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sat Nov 12 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The effect of government investment spending on tax revenue in Iraq from( 2008 – 2020) : Applied research in The General Authority for Taxes.
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The expenditures of the general budget, in its operational and investment divisions, are a basic factor in the economic and social growth of any country, and its impact on various economic activities such as income, employees , and the standard of living of members of society. This was based on a basic premise: Does increasing or decreasing investment expenditures have an effect on increasing or decreasing the tax proceeds, What is the level of relationship between them? and to achieve the goal of the research, an inductive and analytical method was chosen to measure the impact of the investment budget expenditures on the tax outcome quantitatively using the financial data obtained from The General Authority for Taxes, Ministry of Financ

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2022
Journal Name
مركز حمورابي للبحوث والدراسات
آليات صنع القرار السياسي في الكويت
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تُمثل عملية صنع القرار السياسي في الكويت بمراحلها وآلياتها ومؤسساتها، معياراً على مدى تقدم النظام السياسي ونجاحه في تقدم الدولة. كذلك هي معيار لمستوى قوة تجذّر الديمقراطية بين الفرد الكويتي في المجتمع، ونتاج توازن التفاعل ما بين المؤسسات السياسية مع مؤسسات الدولة الرسمية والغير رسمية، اعتماداً على القانون لا على الأهواء والمصالح القبلية والعشائرية، لتأسيس دولة مؤسسات قبل دولة أفراد.

Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Public Budget and the Roles of Legislative and Executive Power Regarding It with Reference to Iraq)2004-2011)
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The public budget is regarded a main tool for economic and social development. The preparation of the public budget constitute an important stream which enriches the developmental efforts and the definition of its priorities, therefore it is the focus point of many specializations. The public budget has numerous functions. It is a means to precise and to execute the political and economic goals of the executive authority, a mirror of the economic structure which reflects its strength and weakness points, specifies its revenues and others. Since the parliament is the voice of the society which expresses its interests, then, it must monitor the performance of the government so that the participation of the legislative authority in

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Video effect on Youths Value
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The Video effect on Youths Value

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 15 2020
Journal Name
Al-academy
Diversity of Temporal Workings in the Narrative of the Feature Film: عباس فاضل عبد
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  Time represented a significant element in building any film story, despite its inability to express itself, but by employing the rest of the elements of the cinematic mediator language to express it. Time factor is present and manifested in all the details of the picture, and the more important is its presence in the event narration process. The narration totally depends on temporal structure in which it appears, which makes time a dominating element in the development of the narrative shapes and patterns. The narrative propositions have come to take new workings that time streams appeared that manipulate the time structure, reversing it, stopping it or making it fluctuate between the three levels of time, or repeating it or make

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in Neutralizing Oil Price Fluctuations on the Gross Domestic Product in Iraq for the Period (1990-2019)
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The research aimed to measure the reality of monetary policy and its role in neutralizing the impact of fluctuations in total domestic oil prices, through the most important monetary policy variable (money supply). An example of this is using a simple technique in the previous example, turning it into a straightforward user interface by (Judd and Kunee). After estimating the impact of the policy with the domestic gross domestic oil prices in Iraq, the effect of fluctuations in the domestic gross domestic oil prices in the simple regression model, while the morale of oil prices was not proven with a negative sign, while the morale of money supply and their impact on the increase of the domestic was proven in the multiple regressio

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 31 2021
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Moderation in Omani External political behavior (1970-2020)
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Receipt date:08/26/2020 accepted date:9/8/2020 Publication date:12/31/2021

Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

        The research entitled (Moderation in Omani External Political Behavior 1970-2020. contained introduction and two sections conclusion and recommendations. The introduction included a general overview of the topic, and the importance of the political behavior o

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 01 2015
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The Role of Communication Methods in Changing the Values of the Urban Family
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This article discusses the change of values in urban family, because of various communication media and modern technologies as one of the most important factors affecting the changing family values in urban areas, this means becoming part of urban life. And focuses on the family in urban areas, for the privacy of the social, economic, demographic and cultural help to this effect, and because cities are the most friction and interaction with modern technologies.

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Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Effect of irrigation type and method on the cost of producing dunum of wheat crop
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Abstract :  This research is concerned with studying the best type and method of  irrigation as well as the best cultivated area to reduce the cost of producing  dunums of wheat crop in Iraq , and was based on data taken from the Ministry of Planning / Central Statistical Organization About cost of wheat crop production for (12) Iraqi governorates except Kurdistan, Nineveh, Salah al-Din, Anbar) and the sample size (554) according to the cost survey carried out by the Ministry of Planning / Central Statistical Organization for 2017, The results of the research showed that there are significant statistical differences between production costs when using t

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 20 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Fluctuations of global crude oil prices and their effect on inflation and economic growth in Iraq " A standard study for the period 1988– 2015
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Abstract

That Iraq's dependence on the revenues of the oil product in financing its development programs and growth rates , Making the economy affected by external forces represented by fluctuations in crude oil prices in the global market, Which is directly reflected on the performance and efficiency of the Iraqi economy.

The study adopted its objectives to analyze the time series for the period (1988 - 2015) through the use of standard and statistical methods, Four standard models were estimated to reach those targets, Where the results of the stability test showed instability of most variables at their original level, But to achieve stability when taking the first differences, While the result

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