تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
Forecasting has become common process and reality. Since man has found multiple forms of simple predictive predictions, fruitful predictive results have emerged, such as weather forecasting or trading on stock exchange. The research was organized by defining the problem, which was manifested by the question:
(What is the prediction in global logo design methods?)
The aim of the research: (revealing design prediction in the methods of global logos). The theoretical framework was: (the concept of prediction in the design of global logos), (methods of global logos), (types of prediction) and then were attached to indicators, results and conclusions, including:
- The color value of international logos came with human needs: a
The research aims to analyze the impact of exchange rate fluctuations (EXM and EXN) and inflation (INF) on the gross domestic product (GDP) in Iraq for the period 1988-2020. The research is important by analyzing the magnitude of the macroeconomic and especially GDP effects of these variables, as well as the economic effects of exchange rates on economic activity. The results of the standard analysis using the ARDL model showed a long-term equilibrium relationship, according to the Bound Test methodology, from explanatory (independent) variables to the internal (dependent) variable, while the value of the error correction vector factor was negative and moral at a level less than (1%). The relationship bet
... Show MoreSesame crop, one of the very important oily, industrial, and summer crops that is economically important, has been investigated. The plantation and production of this crop has been studied in Al-Qadisiyah governorate during 2003-218. This is because this governorate is well-known by sesame plantation. Such a study helps to know the geographical distribution of sesame agricultural season in 2017-2018, and explore the most important natural factors that affect its plantation. Different research approaches have been adopted based on that facts that need to be met. A field study approach has been used in studying sesame crop descriptively and conceptually, shedding light on its nutritional and economic importance. Moreover, a descriptive com
... Show MoreThe search aims to clarify pollution to negative effects on environment and to an increasing in the dangerous polluted materials that discharged out these factories. To make active procedures in order to limit the environmental pollution.
The search problem came from an assumption which has the researched factory is suffering from the lack of applying the international specification ( ISO 14004 ). The research problem assimilated by these questions:
- What is the level or organization in thinking of environmental system according to ISO 14004 .
- What are the requirements used in researched factor
Abstract
The research aims to identify tax exemptions, their objectives and types, as well as to shed light on the concept of sustainable development, its objectives, dimensions and indicators (economic, social and environmental), as well as to analyze the relationship between tax exemptions and economic development, in addition to measuring and analyzing the impact of tax exemptions on economic development in Iraq for the period ( 2015 - 2021) using the NARDL model. The research problem centers on the fact that failure to employ financial policy tools correctly led to a weakness in achieving economic justice, which leads to a failure to improve social welfar
... Show MoreThe advertisement is important in maximizing the resources of journalistic institutions. It helps them to perform their duties and also establishes their independence. However, this type of communication has often overlapped with other types of communication, including media and publicity.
Those in charge of the press bear responsibility in this regard, as some of them harness the advertisement for personal purposes; or detrimental to media content. Many communication authorities have drawn attention to the danger of confusing the concepts and levels of the three activities and have moved towards establishing rules to reduce overlap between them.
The aim of this research is to try to disengage the concept of advertising,
... Show MoreIn this study, the researcher aims to analyze the content of the physics textbook for the 3rd intermediate grade according to the criteria for designing and producing infographics, and the research community consists of the content of the physics textbook for the 3rd intermediate grade intermediate grade for the academic year 2021-2022. The researcher adopted the analysis instruments with a number of the criteria for designing and producing infographics. The results revealed randomness in the percentage of the criteria included in the content of the physics textbook for the 3rd intermediate grade, and they are not compatible with the proposed criteria by the experts also.
ان الهدف من البحث الحالي هو تقويم كتاب الفيزياء للصف الرابع العلمي وفق معايير تصميم وانتاج الانفوجرافيك ومن اجل تحقيق هذا الهدف تم اختيار المنهج الوصفي(تحليل المحتوى) وحدد مجتمع البحث بكتاب الفيزياء للمرحلة الاعدادية الرابع العلمي, المقررة للعام الدراسي 2020-2019 ـ اما عينة البحث فكانت جميع الرسوم والاشكال والمخططات المتضمنة في هذا الكتاب. تم اعداد اداة التحليل المتمثلة بقائمة معايير تصميم وانتاج الانفوجرافيك
... Show Moreان الهدف من هذا البحث هو تحليل كتاب الفيزياء للصف الخامس العلمي للمرحلة الاعدادية في ضوء معايير تصميم وانتاج الانفوجرافيك. ويتم التحقق من هدف البحث من خلال الاجابة عن الاسئلة الاتية: ما هي المعايير التي يمكن في ضوئها تقويم كتاب الفيزياءلصف الخامس العلمي؟ ما النسبة الواجب توافرها لمعايير تصميم وانتاج الانفوجرافيك في كتاب الفيزياء لصف الخامس العلمي؟ ما مدى توفر معايير تصميم وانتاج الانفوجرافيك في كتاب الفيزي
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