تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
The research aimed to measure the reality of monetary policy and its role in neutralizing the impact of fluctuations in total domestic oil prices, through the most important monetary policy variable (money supply). An example of this is using a simple technique in the previous example, turning it into a straightforward user interface by (Judd and Kunee). After estimating the impact of the policy with the domestic gross domestic oil prices in Iraq, the effect of fluctuations in the domestic gross domestic oil prices in the simple regression model, while the morale of oil prices was not proven with a negative sign, while the morale of money supply and their impact on the increase of the domestic was proven in the multiple regressio
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Abstract : This research is concerned with studying the best type and method of irrigation as well as the best cultivated area to reduce the cost of producing dunums of wheat crop in Iraq , and was based on data taken from the Ministry of Planning / Central Statistical Organization About cost of wheat crop production for (12) Iraqi governorates except Kurdistan, Nineveh, Salah al-Din, Anbar) and the sample size (554) according to the cost survey carried out by the Ministry of Planning / Central Statistical Organization for 2017, The results of the research showed that there are significant statistical differences between production costs when using t
... Show MoreThe Video effect on Youths Value
Abstract
That Iraq's dependence on the revenues of the oil product in financing its development programs and growth rates , Making the economy affected by external forces represented by fluctuations in crude oil prices in the global market, Which is directly reflected on the performance and efficiency of the Iraqi economy.
The study adopted its objectives to analyze the time series for the period (1988 - 2015) through the use of standard and statistical methods, Four standard models were estimated to reach those targets, Where the results of the stability test showed instability of most variables at their original level, But to achieve stability when taking the first differences, While the result
... Show MoreThis article discusses the change of values in urban family, because of various communication media and modern technologies as one of the most important factors affecting the changing family values in urban areas, this means becoming part of urban life. And focuses on the family in urban areas, for the privacy of the social, economic, demographic and cultural help to this effect, and because cities are the most friction and interaction with modern technologies.
Abstract
The research aims to identify tax exemptions, their objectives and types, as well as to shed light on the concept of sustainable development, its objectives, dimensions and indicators (economic, social and environmental), as well as to analyze the relationship between tax exemptions and economic development, in addition to measuring and analyzing the impact of tax exemptions on economic development in Iraq for the period ( 2015 - 2021) using the NARDL model. The research problem centers on the fact that failure to employ financial policy tools correctly led to a weakness in achieving economic justice, which leads to a failure to improve social welfar
... Show MoreForecasting has become common process and reality. Since man has found multiple forms of simple predictive predictions, fruitful predictive results have emerged, such as weather forecasting or trading on stock exchange. The research was organized by defining the problem, which was manifested by the question:
(What is the prediction in global logo design methods?)
The aim of the research: (revealing design prediction in the methods of global logos). The theoretical framework was: (the concept of prediction in the design of global logos), (methods of global logos), (types of prediction) and then were attached to indicators, results and conclusions, including:
- The color value of international logos came with human needs: a
The search aims to clarify pollution to negative effects on environment and to an increasing in the dangerous polluted materials that discharged out these factories. To make active procedures in order to limit the environmental pollution.
The search problem came from an assumption which has the researched factory is suffering from the lack of applying the international specification ( ISO 14004 ). The research problem assimilated by these questions:
- What is the level or organization in thinking of environmental system according to ISO 14004 .
- What are the requirements used in researched factor
The advertisement is important in maximizing the resources of journalistic institutions. It helps them to perform their duties and also establishes their independence. However, this type of communication has often overlapped with other types of communication, including media and publicity.
Those in charge of the press bear responsibility in this regard, as some of them harness the advertisement for personal purposes; or detrimental to media content. Many communication authorities have drawn attention to the danger of confusing the concepts and levels of the three activities and have moved towards establishing rules to reduce overlap between them.
The aim of this research is to try to disengage the concept of advertising,
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