تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
The interest in the issue of capital movement as an economic phenomenon has increased because of its effects and effects and its ability to influence the economic balance and the effectiveness of monetary policy. All countries seek to attract capital and benefit from it because of its effects and results such as supporting economic development process and optimal allocation of economic resources. The problem of the financing gap that most countries suffer from, and others, but sometimes the movement of capital creates challenges for monetary policy makers in achieving their goals.
After 2003, the Iraqi economy witnessed an openness and economic liberalization unlike previous years, which
... Show MoreThis research aims at forecasting the public budget of Iraq (surplus or deficit) for 2017 & 2018 through using two methods to forecast. First: forecast budget surplus or deficit by using IMF estimations average oil price per barrel adopted in the public federal budget amounted to USD 44 in 2017 & USD 46 in 2018; Second: forecast budget surplus or deficit by using MOO actual average oil price in global markets amounted to USD 66 in 2018 through applying Dynamic Model & Static Model. Then analyze the models to reach the best one. The research concluded that those estimations of dynamic forecasting model of budget surplus or deficit for 2017 & 2018 gives good reliable results for future periods when using the a
... Show MoreThe study aims to show the correlation between inflation rates and the volume of private sector deposits in Jordan on one hand, and Amman Stock Exchange index for the period of 1999-2017. The study used the “Vector Auto Regression” model. Different types of tests are used such as: The “Johansen Co integration” test of joint integration, “Granger causality” test, the “Analysis of Variance Decomposition”, and “Impulse response Function” test.
The results showed there is a positive-one-way causal effect from Amman Stock Exchange index to inflation. Also, a one-way causal effect that comes from Amman Stock Exchange index to the size of private sec
... Show MoreThis research aims to identify the means and forms of interactive communication concerning Iraqi topics on the websites of global radio stations, namely Sawa and Monte Carlo. It also seeks to uncover the editorial and artistic interactions related to Iraqi topics on the selected websites chosen as the research sample, comparing them with the editorial interaction within the Iraqi context between the Radio Monte Carlo and Sawa websites.
The research yields several conclusions, including the following:
Iraqis focus their interaction with topics related to Iraq on Facebook for both Radio Monte Carlo and Sawa; Arabs show higher levels of interaction on Twitter with Radio Monte Carlo; Participants on the webs
Artificial Neural networks (ANN) are powerful and effective tools in time-series applications. The first aim of this paper is to diagnose better and more efficient ANN models (Back Propagation, Radial Basis Function Neural networks (RBF), and Recurrent neural networks) in solving the linear and nonlinear time-series behavior. The second aim is dealing with finding accurate estimators as the convergence sometimes is stack in the local minima. It is one of the problems that can bias the test of the robustness of the ANN in time series forecasting. To determine the best or the optimal ANN models, forecast Skill (SS) employed to measure the efficiency of the performance of ANN models. The mean square error and
... Show MoreThis study aimed to identify the quality of the career path and its relation to organizational excellence at King Khalid University in the Faculty of Business from the point of view of the faculty members by identifying the dimensions quality of work-life including (participation of decision making, training and development opportunities, and the balance between personal and work life, and to identify the level of organizational excellence through dimensions ( Excellence of leadership, excellence of the strategy, and excellence of organizational culture). The descriptive approach was used. The questionnaire was a research tool. It consisted of (29) paragraphs, distributed to the entire study community and then received 127
... Show MoreThere is an assumption implicit but fundamental theory behind the decline by the time series used in the estimate, namely that the time series has a sleep feature Stationary or the language of Engle Gernger chains are integrated level zero, which indicated by I (0). It is well known, for example, tables of t-statistic is designed primarily to deal with the results of the regression that uses static strings. This assumption has been previously treated as an axiom the mid-seventies, where researchers are conducting studies of applied without taking into account the properties of time series used prior to the assessment, was to accept the results of these tests Bmanueh and delivery capabilities based on the applicability of the theo
... Show MoreIraq has confronted a huge political transformations after 2003 which resembled and presented rapid changes from totalitarian regime into democracy's system , this phenomenon has become a feature embodied in a new political system, specifically is being a price for previous deprivation and despotism .So that, the nature of political work has been changed as a result of practicing new democratic values ,but the real challenges appeared by depending on the conformity and political compromise in dealing with all of crises and problems in the political life .
The future of political work in this nascent democracy could be prepared according to fulfillment an active doings values stretched on national unity and forgiveness from one side ,t
The expenditures of the general budget, in its operational and investment divisions, are a basic factor in the economic and social growth of any country, and its impact on various economic activities such as income, employees , and the standard of living of members of society. This was based on a basic premise: Does increasing or decreasing investment expenditures have an effect on increasing or decreasing the tax proceeds, What is the level of relationship between them? and to achieve the goal of the research, an inductive and analytical method was chosen to measure the impact of the investment budget expenditures on the tax outcome quantitatively using the financial data obtained from The General Authority for Taxes, Ministry of Financ
... Show Moreعملية اتخاذ القرار بأنها عملية اختيار البديل من بين بديلين مختلفين أو أكثر لتحقيق هدف أو مجموعة من الأهداف خلال فترة زمنية في ضوء معطيات كل من البيئة الداخلية والخارجية للمنظمة.