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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The causal relationship between inflation and the volume of private sector deposits and the Amman Stock Exchange Index. (The case of Jordan for the period 1999-2017)
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        The study aims to show the correlation between inflation rates and the volume of private sector deposits in Jordan on one hand, and Amman Stock Exchange index for the period of 1999-2017. The study used the “Vector Auto Regression” model. Different types of tests are used such as: The “Johansen Co integration” test of joint integration, “Granger causality” test, the “Analysis of Variance Decomposition”, and “Impulse response Function” test.

The results showed there is a positive-one-way causal effect from Amman Stock Exchange index to inflation. Also, a one-way causal effect that comes from Amman Stock Exchange index to the size of private sec

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Optimized Artificial Neural network models to time series
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        Artificial Neural networks (ANN) are powerful and effective tools in time-series applications. The first aim of this paper is to diagnose better and more efficient ANN models (Back Propagation, Radial Basis Function Neural networks (RBF), and Recurrent neural networks) in solving the linear and nonlinear time-series behavior. The second aim is dealing with finding accurate estimators as the convergence sometimes is stack in the local minima. It is one of the problems that can bias the test of the robustness of the ANN in time series forecasting. To determine the best or the optimal ANN models, forecast Skill (SS) employed to measure the efficiency of the performance of ANN models. The mean square error and

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The quality of work-life and relation to organizational excellence at King Khalid University of the faculty members' point of view / Business School Case study
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This study aimed to identify the quality of the career path and its relation to organizational excellence at King Khalid University in the Faculty of Business from the point of view of the faculty members by identifying the dimensions quality of work-life including (participation of decision making, training and development opportunities, and the balance between personal and work life, and to identify the level of organizational excellence through dimensions ( Excellence of leadership, excellence of the  strategy, and excellence of organizational culture). The descriptive approach was used. The questionnaire was a research tool. It consisted of (29) paragraphs, distributed to the entire study community and then received 127

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The effects of recently political transformations in changing democratic doing values in Iraq (( Theoretical – analytical vision between the reality and challenges ))
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Iraq has confronted a huge political transformations after 2003 which resembled and presented rapid changes from totalitarian regime into democracy's system , this phenomenon has become a feature embodied in a new political system, specifically is being a price for previous deprivation and despotism .So that, the nature of political work has been changed as a result of practicing new democratic values ,but the real challenges appeared by depending on the conformity and political compromise in dealing with all of crises and problems in the political life .
The future of political work in this nascent democracy could be prepared according to fulfillment an active doings values stretched on national unity and forgiveness from one side ,t

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Effect of the Stability of Some Commodity Activities in Iraq on the Estimation of the Statistical Data Models for the Period (1988-2000)
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There is an assumption implicit but fundamental theory behind the decline by the time series used in the estimate, namely that the time series has a sleep feature Stationary or the language of Engle Gernger chains are integrated level zero, which indicated by I (0). It is well known, for example, tables of t-statistic is designed primarily to deal with the results of the regression that uses static strings. This assumption has been previously treated as an axiom the mid-seventies, where researchers are conducting studies of applied without taking into account the properties of time series used prior to the assessment, was to accept the results of these tests Bmanueh and delivery capabilities based on the applicability of the theo

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Jul 03 2005
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
عرض الاطاريح والرسائل (العراق والوكالة الدولية للطاقة الذرية 1990-2003)
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العراق والوكالة الدولية للطاقة الذرية 1990-2003

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 28 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
A Proposed Framework to Developing the Auditor's Reporting in Iraq in Accordance With the International Standards on Auditing
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The international reporting auditor witness rapidly developed over the past years, where profession began give attention to the development of auditor reporting and improve its informational report through the issuance and amendment of some relevant international auditing standards. The reality of the situation refers to the failure to inform the auditor in Iraq in  many areas, including: Clearly defined management responsibility for the preparation of financial and auditor's responsibility to express an opinion on these statements and Amendment of opinion when the financial statements as a whole is free from material misstatement based on the evidence is sufficient and appropriate audit, or not to build the auditor's ability to obt

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Apr 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
"The Impact of International Public Sector Accounting Standards (IPSASs) on the Public Budget in Iraq"
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     The aim of the research is to determine the impact of the Iraqi public budget on IPSASs by conducting the questionnaire; the research was based on the hypothesis that "there is an impact of the adoption of the International Accounting Standards in the general budget of Iraq”. The research concluded that the government accounting system closely interferes with the general budget at all stages. The shifting towards the accrual basis is the first element of the reform package towards reaching the reform of the state budget. Without reforming government accounting, it is almost impossible to develop the budget. IPSASs are a recognized reference to the assessment and development of governmen

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Crossref (1)
Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Apr 08 2024
Journal Name
Nibal
اتخاذ القرار وإصدار الاوامر
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عملية اتخاذ القرار بأنها عملية اختيار البديل من بين بديلين مختلفين أو أكثر لتحقيق هدف أو مجموعة من الأهداف خلال فترة زمنية في ضوء معطيات كل من البيئة الداخلية والخارجية للمنظمة.

Publication Date
Sat Mar 26 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The theory of convergent between standard and optimal cost supporting actual cost in an Enterprise: بحث تطبيقي في معمل الألبسة الرجالية في النجف للفترة من 2007-2020
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The research aims to achieve proof of convergence between optimal costs and standard costs in calculating costs for the economic unit, support efforts aimed at adopting optimal costs in cost accounts and accounting thought in general, and achieve benefit from the theory of convergence between optimal costs and standard costs in the field of achieving actual costs in The economic unit in order to reduce and converge, and this came to address the possibility of adopting the concept of optimal costs in the production costs calculations for the purposes of rationalizing administrative decisions, and rationalizing the preparation of financial statements within management accounting.

The research concluded that

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