The grey system model GM(1,1) is the model of the prediction of the time series and the basis of the grey theory. This research presents the methods for estimating parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the accumulative method (ACC), the exponential method (EXP), modified exponential method (Mod EXP) and the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO). These methods were compared based on the Mean square error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute percentage error (MAPE) as a basis comparator and the simulation method was adopted for the best of the four methods, The best method was obtained and then applied to real data. This data represents the consumption rate of two types of oils a heavy fuel (HFO) and diesel fuel (D.O) and the use of tests to confirm the accuracy of the grey model. After obtaining the results, the best method to estimate the parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the method of the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO) It has been used to treatment the missing values in the data and in the prediction where it has been shown to have the best results
Abstract
The extremes effects in parameters readings which are BOD (Biological Oxygen Demands) and DO(Dissolved Oxygen) can caused error estimating of the model’s parameters which used to determine the ratio of de oxygenation and re oxygenation of the dissolved oxygen(DO),then that will caused launch big amounts of the sewage pollution water to the rivers and it’s turn is effect in negative form on the ecosystem life and the different types of the water wealth.
As result of what mention before this research came to employees Streeter-Phleps model parameters estimation which are (Kd,Kr) the de oxygenation and re oxygenation ratios on respect
... Show Moreملخـــص البحــــث
البحث يحدد القيم التي تم التركيز عليها والإهتمام بها في كتاب القراءة الكوردية للصف الثاني في المرحلة الاساسية المقرر, وكذلك القيم التي لم يتم التركيز عليها أو الإهتمام بها و التي تم تجاهلها بصورة كاملة في نفس الكتاب. وتحديد عدد الصفحات التي تم تخصيصها مقارنة مع مساحات الصور التوضيحية والفنون الأدبية في الكتاب المقرر
من أجل الإجابة على التساؤل المتعلق بمشكلة البحث وهو؛ ماهي الصعوبات التي تواجه المدرسين باستخدام أساليب التدريس الحديثة بدرس التربية الرياضية للمرحلة المتوسطة؟ والعمل على إيجاد الحلول المناسبة لهذه الصعوبات. استخدم الباحثين المنهج الوصفي بالأسلوب المسحي على عينة من مدرسي ومدرسات التربية الرياضية في محافظة ديالى في المدارس المتوسطة والبالغ عددهم (81) مدرساً ومدرسة، وبعد إعداد الاستبانة الخاصة بالبحث وتوزيع
... Show MoreAppearance of the Kurdish press in the Kurdish literature was affected by as set of both external and internal factors. The former was realized in the spreading of press and publications especially at the neighboring countries in the second half of the 19th century. The latter factors, external ones ,were concerned the political situations undergone by the Kurdish people who severely suffered injustice practiced by the Othman authority .All these reasons had driven the educated to migrate to search for more safe places to practice their cultural actions with absolute freedom. Consequently, the first newspaper was issued on 22/4/1898 in Cairo which pointed the birth of the Kurdish press inside and outside Kurdistan region which
... Show Moreاللغة هي الأداة الرئيسة للتواصل اللغوي بين أفراد المجتمع . أن المتحدث بأية لغة يحتاج إلى استخدام رموز مشتركة. ومع ذلك، تسهم الظروف الاجتماعية والجغرافية والفردية المختلفة في ذلك, اذ أن هنالك طرقاً مختلفة لاستخدام اللغة نفسها, لذلك فأنها ضرورية للحفاظ على انماط معينة لجعل التواصل ممكنا. وهذا الاستخدام المختلف يؤدي الى تنوع استخدام اللغة. هذا يعني ان المتحدثين في مكان ما لا يتكل
... Show MoreThe current study aims to compare between the assessments of the Rush model’s parameters to the missing and completed data in various ways of processing the missing data. To achieve the aim of the present study, the researcher followed the following steps: preparing Philip Carter test for the spatial capacity which consists of (20) items on a group of (250) sixth scientific stage students in the directorates of Baghdad Education at Al–Rusafa (1st, 2nd and 3rd) for the academic year (2018-2019). Then, the researcher relied on a single-parameter model to analyze the data. The researcher used Bilog-mg3 model to check the hypotheses, data and match them with the model. In addition
... Show MoreEvaluation is one of the most important elements of teaching process. The recent trends in evaluation and educational reform movements have called for using alternative evaluation, which focuses on performance evaluation. Authentic assessment is usually described as formative, in which students participate in their acquisition, in addition to the fact that students are productive and active, which is reflected in the students' achievement and skill level. The study aims to reveal the degree of knowledge and use of alternative assessment tools by primary school teachers in Gaza -Palestine. To meet the objective of the study, the researchers used the descriptive-analytical method and the questioner as a study tool. The study sample c
... Show MoreMultilevel models are among the most important models widely used in the application and analysis of data that are characterized by the fact that observations take a hierarchical form, In our research we examined the multilevel logistic regression model (intercept random and slope random model) , here the importance of the research highlights that the usual regression models calculate the total variance of the model and its inability to read variance and variations between levels ,however in the case of multi-level regression models, the calculation of the total variance is inaccurate and therefore these models calculate the variations for each level of the model, Where the research aims to estimate the parameters of this m
... Show MorePerformance measures are a central component of management control system, making good planning and control decisions requires information about how different subunits of organizations have performed. To be effective, performance measures (both financial and nonfinancial) must also motivate managers and employees at all levels of organization to strive to achieve organization goals.
To give aclear picture about performance must be used compound measure, that was best than single measure.
Altman model can be used as a compound performance measure that measures the performance by tied a sum of variables, due to make weight for every variable to reach for performance.