Abstract

       The grey system model GM(1,1) is the model of the prediction of the time series and the basis of the grey theory. This research presents the methods for estimating parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the accumulative method (ACC), the exponential method (EXP), modified exponential method (Mod EXP) and the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO). These methods were compared based on the Mean square error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute percentage error (MAPE) as a basis comparator and the simulation method was adopted for the best of the four methods, The best method was obtained and then applied to real data. This data represents the consumption rate of two types of oils a he

Psoriasis is a dermatological, chronic, immune-mediated condition. Psoriasis symptoms are not associated with physical burden only, but it may also have psychosocial effects on patients, diminished cognitive control, poor body image and impairments in everyday life. The value of quality of life is important since improving it is the principal goal for non-curative disease. The aim of the current study was to evaluate quality of life in a sample of Iraqi patients with psoriasis. This study is a cross-sectional study that involved 300 already diagnosed psoriasis patients who attended to the center of Dermatology and Venereology, Medical City/Baghdad. The mean age of patients was (35.156 ±10.549 years). The Arabic version of Dermatology Li

This deals with estimation of Reliability function and one shape parameter (?) of two- parameters Burr – XII , when ?(shape parameter is known) (?=0.5,1,1.5) and also the initial values of (?=1), while different sample shze n= 10, 20, 30, 50) bare used. The results depend on empirical study through simulation experiments are applied to compare the four methods of estimation, as well as computing the reliability function . The results of Mean square error indicates that Jacknif estimator is better than other three estimators , for all sample size and parameter values

The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

Despite the antiplaque effect of mouth-rinsing with a combination composed of miswak (Salvadora persica L.) and green tea (Camellia sinensis var. assamica) extracts, no data are available regarding its effect on gingival tissue at the molecular level. This pilot study aimed to assess the effect of oral rinsing with this combination on gingival crevicular fluid (GCF) flow and IL-1β levels. Ten subjects rinsed with either the combination, 0.12% chlorhexidine gluconate (CHX) or distilled water without toothbrushing for 4 days after receiving baseline polishing. GCF IL-1β concentration, influx, resting volume and plaque quantity were measured at baseline and after 4 days for each intervention. No significant differences in GCF flow or

This research presents a new study in kinetics under reactive distillation by using consecutive two – step reaction : the saponification reaction of diethyl adipate with sodium hydroxide solution . The distillation process takes the role of withdrawing the intermediate product (sodium monoethyladipate SMA) which otherwise converts to the final product of low purity.The effect of three parameters were studied through a design of experiments applying 2³ factorial design. These parameters were : the mole ratio of DA to NaOH solution (0.1 and 1) , NaOH solution concentration (3 N and 8 N) , and batch time (1.5 hr. and 3.5 hr.) . The conversion of DA to sodium monoethyladipate(SMA)(intermediate product) was the effect of these pa

Roof in the Iraqi houses normally flattening by a concrete panel. This concrete panel has poor thermal properties. The usage of materials with low thermal conductivity and high specific heat gives a good improvements to the thermal properties of the concrete panel, thus, the indoor room temperature improves. A Mathcad program based on a mathematical model employing complex Fourier series built for a single room building. The model input data are the ambient temperature, solar radiation, and sol-air temperature, which have been treated as a periodic function of time. While, the room construction is constant due to their materials made of it, except the roof properties are taken as a variable generated practically from the

Background: Myasthenia gravis is an autoimmune disease of the neuromuscular junction that results in fluctuating muscle weakness as well as significant fatigue. Disease exacerbation is a critical condition, and the predisposing factors for it need to be identified to improve preventive measures.

Objectives:  Our study aims to determine the predisposing factors for myasthenia gravis exacerbations in a group of Iraqi patients.

Subjects and Methods: A total number of 30 myasthenia gravis patients were admitted to the hospital with an exacerbation of their symptoms, determined as the development of functional disability, dysphagia, or respiratory fai

Commercially pure titanium (cpTi) is widely used as dental implant material although it was found that titanium exhibited high modulus of elasticity and the lower corrosion tendency in oral environment. Niobium(Nb) was chosen for this study as an alternative to cpTi implant material due to its bioinert behavior and good elastic modulus and moderate cost in addition to corrosion resistance. This study was done to evaluate the effect of biomimetic coating on the surface properties of the commercially pure titanium and niobium implants by in vitro and in vivo experiments. The in vitro study was involved etching the samples of each material in HCl then soaking in 10M NaOH aqueous solution. These samples were then immersed in a 5 times concent