Grey system theory is a multidisciplinary scientific approach, which deals with systems that have partially unknown information (small sample and uncertain information). Grey modeling as an important component of such theory gives successful results with limited amount of data. Grey Models are divided into two types; univariate and multivariate grey models. The univariate grey model with one order derivative equation GM (1,1) is the base stone of the theory, it is considered the time series prediction model but it doesn’t take the relative factors in account. The traditional multivariate grey models GM(1,M) takes those factor in account but it has a complex structure and some defects in " modeling mechanism", "parameter estimation "and "model structure", So that traditional GM(1,M) submitted to many trials of optimizations to getting rid this defects. This research shows the characteristics of the traditional GM(1,M), the problems it suffer from, the method of getting rid of such problems and presents two optimized multivariable grey model of one order derivative equation. the first one is called the Optimized Grey Model abbreviated as OGM(1, M) by adding the linear correction term h1(M-1)and the grey action quantity term (h2) to the traditional model GM(1,M) the latter is called Optimized Background value Grey Model OBGM(1,M) by optimizing the Background value of the last model OGM(1,M). We use two A realistic data represents the water consumption in Baghdad at the period (2016-2022) to compare the two optimized models with the traditional represents the water consumption in Baghdad at the period (2016-2022)). we use the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the determination coefficient R2. To compare the two optimized model with traditional one. The results show that the two optimized have less values than the those of the traditional model GM(I,M), and that verify the correctness of defects analysis of GM(1,M).
This study was conducted to examine the discharge capacity of the reach of the Tigris River between Kut and Amarah Barrages of 250km in length. The examination includes simulation the current capacity of the reach by using HEC-RAS model. 247cross sections surveyed in 2012 were used in the simulation. The model was calibrated using observed discharges of 533, 800, 1025 and 3000m3/s discharged at Kut Barrage during 2013, 1995, 1995 and 1988, respectively, and its related water level at three gauge stations located along the reach. The result of calibration process indicated that the lowest Root Mean Square Error of 0.095 can be obtained when using Manning’s n coefficient of 0.026, 0.03 for th
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The absorption spectrum for three types of metal ions in different concentrations has been studying experimentally and theoretically. The examination model is by Gaius model in order to find the best fitting curve and the equation controlled with this behavior. The three metal ions are (Copper chloride Cu+2, Iron chloride Fe+3, and Cobalt chloride Co+2) with different concentrations (10-4, 10-5, 10-6, 10-7) gm/m3. The spectroscopic study included UV-visible and fluorescence spectrum for all different concentrations sample. The results refer to several peaks that appear from the absorption spectrum in the high concentration of all metal ions solution.
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Diesel generators is widely used in Iraq for the purpose of maintaining electric power demand. Large number of operators engaged in this work encounters high level of noise generated by back pack type diesel generators used for this purpose. High level of noise exposure gives different kinds of ill effect on human operators. Exact nature of deteriorated work performance is not known., in present research , quastionaire was adsministered 86 repondents in Baghdad city were exposured to wide range of noise level (80-110) dB(A) with different ages and they have different skill discretion levels. Noise levels A-weigthed decibles dB(A) were measured over 8 weeks two times aday during the 2019 summer using a sound level meter.For predicting the wo
... Show MoreThe aim of this research is to find out the influence of Daniel's model on the skills of the twenty-first century among the students of the scientific-fifth grade at the secondary and preparatory government morning schools for the academic year 2022- 2023. Two groups were chosen out of five groups for the fifth-scientific grade, one of which represents the experimental group that is taught by the Daniel model, and the other is the control group that is taught in the traditional method. The equivalence of the two research groups was verified with a set of variables. As for the research tool, a scale was developed by the researchers for the skills of the twenty-first century, in which they adopted the framework of the Partnership Organizat
... Show MoreDiesel generators is widely used in Iraq for the purpose of maintaining electric power demand. Large number of operators engaged in this work encounters high level of noise generated by back pack type diesel generators used for this purpose. High level of noise exposure gives different kinds of ill effect on human operators. Exact nature of deteriorated work performance is not known., in present research , quastionaire was adsministered 86 repondents in Baghdad city were exposured to wide range of noise level (80-110) dB(A) with different ages and they have different skill discretion levels. Noise levels A-weigthed decibles dB(A) were measured over 8 weeks two times aday during the 2019 summer using a sound level meter.For predicting the wo
... Show MoreThis research aims to solve the nonlinear model formulated in a system of differential equations with an initial value problem (IVP) represented in COVID-19 mathematical epidemiology model as an application using new approach: Approximate Shrunken are proposed to solve such model under investigation, which combines classic numerical method and numerical simulation techniques in an effective statistical form which is shrunken estimation formula. Two numerical simulation methods are used firstly to solve this model: Mean Monte Carlo Runge-Kutta and Mean Latin Hypercube Runge-Kutta Methods. Then two approximate simulation methods are proposed to solve the current study. The results of the proposed approximate shrunken methods and the numerical
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The accurate extracting, studying, and analyzing of drainage basin morphometric aspects is important for the accurate determination of environmental factors that formed them, such as climate, tectonic activity, region lithology, and land covering vegetation.
This work was divided into three stages; the 1st stage was delineation of the Al-Abiadh basin borders using a new approach that depends on three-dimensional modeling of the studied region and a drainage network pattern extraction using (Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission) data, the 2nd was the classification of the Al-Abiadh basin streams according to their shape and widenings, and the 3rd was ex
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The mixed-spin ferrimagnetic Ising system consists of two-dimensional sublattices A and B with spin values and respectively .By used the mean-field approximation MFA of Ising model to find magnetism( ).In order to determined the best stabile magnetism , Gibbs free energy employ a variational method based on the Bogoliubov inequality .The ground-state (Phase diagram) structure of our system can easily be determined at , we find six phases with different spins values depend on the effect of a single-ion anisotropies .these lead to determined the second , first orders transition ,and the tricritical points as well as the compensation phenomenon .
It is recognized that organisms live and interact in groups, exposing them to various elements like disease, fear, hunting cooperation, and others. As a result, in this paper, we adopted the construction of a mathematical model that describes the interaction of the prey with the predator when there is an infectious disease, as well as the predator community's characteristic of cooperation in hunting, which generates great fear in the prey community. Furthermore, the presence of an incubation period for the disease provides a delay in disease transmission from diseased predators to healthy predators. This research aims to examine the proposed mathematical model's solution behavior to better understand these elements' impact on an eco-epidemi
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This paper analyzes the effect of scaling-up model and acceleration history on seismic response of closed-ended pipe pile using a finite element modeling approach and the findings of 1 g shaking table tests of a pile embedded in dry and saturated soils. A number of scaling laws were used to create the numerical modeling according to the data obtained from 1 g shake table tests performed in the laboratory. The current study found that the behaviors of the scaled models, in general have similar trends. From numerical modeling on both the dry and saturated sands, the normalized lateral displacement, bending moment, and vertical displacement of piles with scale factors of 2 and 35 are less than those of the pile with a scale factor of 1 and the
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