Grey system theory is a multidisciplinary scientific approach, which deals with systems that have partially unknown information (small sample and uncertain information). Grey modeling as an important component of such theory gives successful results with limited amount of data. Grey Models are divided into two types; univariate and multivariate grey models. The univariate grey model with one order derivative equation GM (1,1) is the base stone of the theory, it is considered the time series prediction model but it doesn’t take the relative factors in account. The traditional multivariate grey models GM(1,M) takes those factor in account but it has a complex structure and some defects in " modeling mechanism", "parameter estimation "and "model structure", So that traditional GM(1,M) submitted to many trials of optimizations to getting rid this defects. This research shows the characteristics of the traditional GM(1,M), the problems it suffer from, the method of getting rid of such problems and presents two optimized multivariable grey model of one order derivative equation. the first one is called the Optimized Grey Model abbreviated as OGM(1, M) by adding the linear correction term h1(M-1)and the grey action quantity term (h2) to the traditional model GM(1,M) the latter is called Optimized Background value Grey Model OBGM(1,M) by optimizing the Background value of the last model OGM(1,M). We use two A realistic data represents the water consumption in Baghdad at the period (2016-2022) to compare the two optimized models with the traditional represents the water consumption in Baghdad at the period (2016-2022)). we use the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the determination coefficient R2. To compare the two optimized model with traditional one. The results show that the two optimized have less values than the those of the traditional model GM(I,M), and that verify the correctness of defects analysis of GM(1,M).
In the presence of multi-collinearity problem, the parameter estimation method based on the ordinary least squares procedure is unsatisfactory. In 1970, Hoerl and Kennard insert analternative method labeled as estimator of ridge regression.
In such estimator, ridge parameter plays an important role in estimation. Various methods were proposed by many statisticians to select the biasing constant (ridge parameter). Another popular method that is used to deal with the multi-collinearity problem is the principal component method. In this paper,we employ the simulation technique to compare the performance of principal component estimator with some types of ordinary ridge regression estimators based on the value of t
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The estimation of the regular regression model requires several assumptions to be satisfied such as "linearity". One problem occurs by partitioning the regression curve into two (or more) parts and then joining them by threshold point(s). This situation is regarded as a linearity violation of regression. Therefore, the multiphase regression model is received increasing attention as an alternative approach which describes the changing of the behavior of the phenomenon through threshold point estimation. Maximum likelihood estimator "MLE" has been used in both model and threshold point estimations. However, MLE is not resistant against violations such as outliers' existence or in case of the heavy-tailed error distribution. The main goal of t
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Explain in this study, thickness has an inverse relationship with electrical resistivity and a linear relationship with Grain boundary scattering. According to the (Fuchs-Sondheier, Mayadas-Shatzkces) model, grain boundary scattering leads To an Increase in electrical Resistivity. The surface scattering Coefficient of Ag, which Fuchs-Sondheier and Mayadas-Shatzkces measured at , Ag's grain boundary reflection coefficient , which Mayadas-Shatzkces measured at , If the concentration of material has an effect on metal's electrical properties, According to this silver is a good electrical conductor and is used frequently in electrical and electronic circuits.
In this paper, a new procedure is introduced to estimate the solution for the three-point boundary value problem which is instituted on the use of Morgan-Voyce polynomial. In the beginning, Morgan-Voyce polynomial along with their important properties is introduced. Next, this polynomial with aid of the collocation method utilized to modify the differential equation with boundary conditions to the algebraic system. Finally, the examples approve the validity and accuracy of the proposed method.
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This paper provides a four-stage Trigonometrically Fitted Improved Runge-Kutta (TFIRK4) method of four orders to solve oscillatory problems, which contains an oscillatory character in the solutions. Compared to the traditional Runge-Kutta method, the Improved Runge-Kutta (IRK) method is a natural two-step method requiring fewer steps. The suggested method extends the fourth-order Improved Runge-Kutta (IRK4) method with trigonometric calculations. This approach is intended to integrate problems with particular initial value problems (IVPs) using the set functions and for trigonometrically fitted. To improve the method's accuracy, the problem primary frequency is used. The novel method is more accurate than the conventional Runge-Ku
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Integrated project delivery is collaboratively applying the skills and knowledge of all participants to optimize the project's results, increase owner value, decrease waste, and maximize efficiency during the design, fabrication, and construction processes. This study aims to determine IPD criteria positively impacting value engineering. To do this, the study has considered 9 main criteria according to PMP classification that already covers all project phases and 183 sub-criteria obtained from theoretical study and expert interviews (fieldwork). In this study, the SPSS (V26) program was used to analyze the main criteria and sub-criteria priorities from top to bottom according to their values of the Relative Importance In
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The game theory has been applied to all situations where agents’ (people or companies) actions are utility-maximizing, and the collaborative offshoot of game theory has proven to be a robust tool for creating effective collaboration strategies in a broad range of applications. In this paper first, we employ the Banzhaf values to show the potential cost to waste producers in the case of a cooperation and to reduce the overall costs of processing non-recyclable waste during cooperation between producers. Secondly, we propose an application of the methodology to study a case for five waste producers' waste management in the Al-Mahmudiya factory with the aim of displaying the potential cost to waste producers in case of cooperatio
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This paper deals with finding the approximation solution of a nonlinear parabolic boundary value problem (NLPBVP) by using the Galekin finite element method (GFEM) in space and Crank Nicolson (CN) scheme in time, the problem then reduce to solve a Galerkin nonlinear algebraic system(GNLAS). The predictor and the corrector technique (PCT) is applied here to solve the GNLAS, by transforms it to a Galerkin linear algebraic system (GLAS). This GLAS is solved once using the Cholesky method (CHM) as it appear in the matlab package and once again using the Cholesky reduction order technique (CHROT) which we employ it here to save a massive time. The results, for CHROT are given by tables and figures and show
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Many organizations today are interesting to implementing lean manufacturing principles that should enable them to eliminating the wastes to reducing a manufacturing lead time. This paper concentrates on increasing the competitive level of the company in globalization markets and improving of the productivity by reducing the manufacturing lead time. This will be by using the main tool of lean manufacturing which is value stream mapping (VSM) to identifying all the activities of manufacturing process (value and non-value added activities) to reducing elimination of wastes (non-value added activities) by converting a manufacturing system to pull instead of push by applying some of pull system strategies a
... Show MoreMarkov chains are an application of stochastic models in operation research, helping the analysis and optimization of processes with random events and transitions. The method that will be deployed to obtain the transient solution to a Markov chain problem is an important part of this process. The present paper introduces a novel Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) approach to solve the Markov chain problem. The probability distribution of a continuous-time Markov chain with an infinitesimal generator at a given time is considered, which is a resulting solution of the Chapman-Kolmogorov differential equation. This study presents a one-step second-derivative method with better accuracy in solving the first-order Initial Value Problem
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