Grey system theory is a multidisciplinary scientific approach, which deals with systems that have partially unknown information (small sample and uncertain information). Grey modeling as an important component of such theory gives successful results with limited amount of data. Grey Models are divided into two types; univariate and multivariate grey models. The univariate grey model with one order derivative equation GM (1,1) is the base stone of the theory, it is considered the time series prediction model but it doesn’t take the relative factors in account. The traditional multivariate grey models GM(1,M) takes those factor in account but it has a complex structure and some defects in " modeling mechanism", "parameter estimation "and "model structure", So that traditional GM(1,M) submitted to many trials of optimizations to getting rid this defects. This research shows the characteristics of the traditional GM(1,M), the problems it suffer from, the method of getting rid of such problems and presents two optimized multivariable grey model of one order derivative equation. the first one is called the Optimized Grey Model abbreviated as OGM(1, M) by adding the linear correction term h1(M-1)and the grey action quantity term (h2) to the traditional model GM(1,M) the latter is called Optimized Background value Grey Model OBGM(1,M) by optimizing the Background value of the last model OGM(1,M). We use two A realistic data represents the water consumption in Baghdad at the period (2016-2022) to compare the two optimized models with the traditional represents the water consumption in Baghdad at the period (2016-2022)). we use the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the determination coefficient R2. To compare the two optimized model with traditional one. The results show that the two optimized have less values than the those of the traditional model GM(I,M), and that verify the correctness of defects analysis of GM(1,M).
In this paper we used frequentist and Bayesian approaches for the linear regression model to predict future observations for unemployment rates in Iraq. Parameters are estimated using the ordinary least squares method and for the Bayesian approach using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Calculations are done using the R program. The analysis showed that the linear regression model using the Bayesian approach is better and can be used as an alternative to the frequentist approach. Two criteria, the root mean square error (RMSE) and the median absolute deviation (MAD) were used to compare the performance of the estimates. The results obtained showed that the unemployment rates will continue to increase in the next two decade
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Abstract
The current research aims to identify the effect of the idea filtering strategy on the achievement of second-intermediate school female students in science. The two researchers adopted the experimental method and the experimental design with partial control in the two groups (experimental group and control group). The two researchers applied the research experience to a sample of students of the second intermediate grade in the school Martyrs of (Jiser Al Aimma for Girls) affiliated with the Baghdad Education Directorate / Rusafa /1 for the academic year (2021/2022), which was chosen intentionally. The number of female students in the research sample was (70) students, with (35) students for the ex
... Show MoreAdsorption of lead ions from wastewater by native agricultural waste, precisely tea waste. After the activation and carbonization of tea waste, there was a substantial improvement in surface area and other physical characteristics which include density, bulk density, and porosity. FTIR analysis indicates that the functional groups in tea waste adsorbent are aromatic and carboxylic. It can be concluded that the tea waste could be a good sorbent for the removal of Lead ions from wastewater. Different dosages of the adsorbents were used in the batch studies. A random series of experiments indicated a removal degree efficiency of lead reaching (95 %) at 5 ppm optimum concentration, with adsorbents R2 =97.75% for tea. Three mo
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This study investigated the ability of using crushed glass solid wastes in water filtration by using a pilot plant, constructed in Al-Wathba water treatment plant in Baghdad. Different depths and different grain sizes of crushed glass were used as mono and dual media with sand and porcelaniate in the filtration process. The mathematical model by Tufenkji and Elimelech was used to evaluate the initial collection efficiency η of these filters. The results indicated that the collection efficiency varied inversely with the filtration rate. For the mono media filters the theoretical ηth values were more than the practical values ηprac calculated from the experimental work. In the glass filter ηprac was obtained by multiplying ηth by a facto
... Show MoreThe current study presents the simulative study and evaluation of MANET mobility models over UDP traffic pattern to determine the effects of this traffic pattern on mobility models in MANET which is implemented in NS-2.35 according to various performance metri (Throughput, AED (Average End-2-end Delay), drop packets, NRL (Normalize Routing Load) and PDF (Packet Delivery Fraction)) with various parameters such as different velocities, different environment areas, different number of nodes, different traffic rates, different traffic sources, different pause times and different simulation times . A routing protocol.…was exploited AODV(Adhoc On demand Distance Vector) and RWP (Random Waypoint), GMM (Gauss Markov Model), RPGM (Refere
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In this research, the influence of the orientation and distance factors on the lowest usable frequency (LUF) parameter has been studied theoretically. The calculations of the (LUF) parameter have been made using the (VOACAP) international communication model for the connection links between the capital Baghdad and many other locations that distributed on different distances and directions over the Middle East region. The results shown in this study indicate there is a slight affection of the link direction (orientation) on the LUF parameter, while the influence of the distance factor is more significant on the values of the LUF parameter. The day/night effect appears for the long distance HF links (i.e. more than a 500 Km)
This study investigated the ability of using crushed glass solid wastes in water filtration by using a pilot plant, constructed in Al-Wathba water treatment plant in Baghdad. Different depths and different grain sizes of crushed glass were used as mono and dual media with sand and porcelaniate in the filtration process. The mathematical model by Tufenkji and Elimelech was used to evaluate the initial collection efficiency η of these filters. The results indicated that the collection efficiency varied inversely with the filtration rate. For the mono media filters the theoretical ηth values were more than the practical values ηprac calculated from
the experimental work. In the glass filter ηprac was obtained by multiplying ηth by a
The effect of the initial pressure upon the laminar flame speed, for a methane-air mixtures, has been detected paractically, for a wide range of equivalence ratio. In this work, a measurement system is designed in order to measure the laminar flame speed using a constant volume method with a thermocouples technique. The laminar burning velocity is measured, by using the density ratio method. The comparison of the present work results and the previous ones show good agreement between them. This indicates that the measurements and the calculations employed in the present work are successful and precise
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The development of a new, cheap, efficient, and ecofriendly adsorbents has become an important demand for the treatment of waste water, so nano silica is considered a good choice. A sample of nanosilica (NS) was prepared from sodium silicate as precursor and the nonionic surfactant Tween 20 as a template. The prepared sample was characterized using various characterization techniques such as FT-IR, AFM, SEM and EDX analysis. The spectrum of FTIR confirms the presence of silica in the sample, while SEM analysis of sample shows nanostructures with pore ranging (2-100nm).The adsorptive properties of this sample were studied by removing Congo red dye (CR) from aqueous solution. Batch experimental methods were carried o
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Semiconductor laser is used in processing many issues related to the scientific, military, medical, industrial and agricultural fields due to its unique properties such as coherence and high strength where GaN-based components are the most efficient in this field. Current technological developments mention to the strong connection of GaN with sustainable electronic and optoelectronic devices which have high-efficiency. The threshold current density of Al0.1Ga0.9N/GaN triple quantum well laser structure was investigated to determine best values of the parameters affecting the threshold current density that are well width, average thickness of active region, cavity length, reflectivity of cavity mirrors and optical confinement factor. The opt
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