Grey system theory is a multidisciplinary scientific approach, which deals with systems that have partially unknown information (small sample and uncertain information). Grey modeling as an important component of such theory gives successful results with limited amount of data. Grey Models are divided into two types; univariate and multivariate grey models. The univariate grey model with one order derivative equation GM (1,1) is the base stone of the theory, it is considered the time series prediction model but it doesn’t take the relative factors in account. The traditional multivariate grey models GM(1,M) takes those factor in account but it has a complex structure and some defects in " modeling mechanism", "parameter estimation "and "model structure", So that traditional GM(1,M) submitted to many trials of optimizations to getting rid this defects. This research shows the characteristics of the traditional GM(1,M), the problems it suffer from, the method of getting rid of such problems and presents two optimized multivariable grey model of one order derivative equation. the first one is called the Optimized Grey Model abbreviated as OGM(1, M) by adding the linear correction term h1(M-1)and the grey action quantity term (h2) to the traditional model GM(1,M) the latter is called Optimized Background value Grey Model OBGM(1,M) by optimizing the Background value of the last model OGM(1,M). We use two A realistic data represents the water consumption in Baghdad at the period (2016-2022) to compare the two optimized models with the traditional represents the water consumption in Baghdad at the period (2016-2022)). we use the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the determination coefficient R2. To compare the two optimized model with traditional one. The results show that the two optimized have less values than the those of the traditional model GM(I,M), and that verify the correctness of defects analysis of GM(1,M).
In this research work an attempt has been made to investigate about the Robustness of the Bayesian Information criterion to estimate the order of the autoregressive process when the error of this model, Submits to a specific distributions and different cases of the time series on various size of samples by using the simulation, This criterion has been studied by depending on ten distributions, they are (Normal, log-Normal, continues uniform, Gamma , Exponential, Gamble, Cauchy, Poisson, Binomial, Discrete uniform) distributions, and then it has been reached to many collection and recommendations related to this object , when the series residual variable is subject to each ( Poisson , Binomial , Exponential , Dis
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Abstract
An experimental study was conducted for measuring the quality of surface finishing roughness using magnetic abrasive finishing technique (MAF) on brass plate which is very difficult to be polish by a conventional machining process where the cost is high and much more susceptible to surface damage as compared to other materials. Four operation parameters were studied, the gap between the work piece and the electromagnetic inductor, the current that generate the flux, the rotational Spindale speed and amount of abrasive powder size considering constant linear feed movement between machine head and workpiece. Adaptive Neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) was implemented for evaluation of a serie
... Show MoreThe Dagum Regression Model, introduced to address limitations in traditional econometric models, provides enhanced flexibility for analyzing data characterized by heavy tails and asymmetry, which is common in income and wealth distributions. This paper develops and applies the Dagum model, demonstrating its advantages over other distributions such as the Log-Normal and Gamma distributions. The model's parameters are estimated using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and the Method of Moments (MoM). A simulation study evaluates both methods' performance across various sample sizes, showing that MoM tends to offer more robust and precise estimates, particularly in small samples. These findings provide valuable insights into the ana
... Show MoreThe current study examined the effect of different sample sizes to detect the Item differential functioning (DIF). The study has used three different sizes of the samples (300, 500, 1000), as well as to test a component of twenty polytomous items, where each item has five categories. They were used Graded Response Model as a single polytomous item response theory model to estimate items and individuals’ parameters. The study has used the Mantel-Haenszel (MH) way to detect (DIF) through each case for the different samples. The results of the study showed the inverse relationship between the sample size and the number of items, which showed a differential performer.
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This research will cover different aspects of estimating process of construction work in a desert area. The inherent difficulties which accompany the cost estimating of the construction works in desert environment in a developing country, will stem from the limited information available, resources scarcity, low level of skilled workers, the prevailing severe weather conditions and many others, which definitely don't provide a fair, reliable and accurate estimation. This study tries to present unit price to estimate the cost in preliminary phase of a project. Estimations are supported by developing mathematical equations based on the historical data of maintenance, new construction of managerial and school projects.
... Show MoreThe importance of this study stems from the importance of preserving the environment and creating a clean sustainable environment from waste and emissions and all the operations of industrial companies in general and cement companies in particular by activating sustainability accounting standards. The research aims to identify and diagnose deviations in violation of sustainability standards by employing the non-renewable resources standard (NR0401) For the construction industries to create a sustainable audit environment, the deductive approach was followed in the theoretical side and the inductive and descriptive approach to the practical side. The most important results of the research were the possibility of applying sustainab
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ما كان للعرب في تاريخهم الطويل قبل الإسلام، وبعده أن يبدعوا ما أبدعوه في صنع الحضارة وتاريخها ، لولا اعتمادهم أنظمة تربوية سليمة في التنشئة والتعليم، ولولا ان عصورهم قد عرفت مربين ، ومعلمين، وعلماء اسهموا في تقديم نظريات تربوية آثرت في تقدم الفكر التربوي وفي تقدم الإنسان.
فمن الطبيعي أن تكون للعرب تربية منظمة، ولمفكريهم عناية بهذه التربية في كل حقب تاريخهم الطويل، ما د
... Show MoreThe aim of current study is to analyze the content of intermediate stage biology books based on multiple intelligences. To do this, the researcher used the descriptive analytical approach. To analyze the three books of the intermediate stage, the author adopted content analysis tool and area unit. They were exposed to group of experts in methods of teaching biology, and measurement and evaluation. The findings of the study have shown a significant difference between what was expected and the observation of the multiple intelligences for the three biology books excluded the (social, musical, and kinetic intelligence), and there is no significant difference between the analysis' result of the biology books and the expectations of b
... Show MoreMultiple Sclerosis (MS) is a progressive neurological disease characterized by periods of quiescence and exacerbation, epidemiological data suggest the notion that MS is an acquired autoimmune disease caused by environmental factors, probably infectious, in genetically susceptible individuals.The submitted research was attempted to study the possible viral (Paramyxoviruses) role in MS, the sera of 57 MS patients were assayed for anti-measles and anti-mumps IgG antibodies using ELISA technique, the results were compared in order to establish the presence or absence of a significant difference regarding both number of positive cases and antibodies titer between the two groups, the results revealed that there is no in number of measles posit
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