Grey system theory is a multidisciplinary scientific approach, which deals with systems that have partially unknown information (small sample and uncertain information). Grey modeling as an important component of such theory gives successful results with limited amount of data. Grey Models are divided into two types; univariate and multivariate grey models. The univariate grey model with one order derivative equation GM (1,1) is the base stone of the theory, it is considered the time series prediction model but it doesn’t take the relative factors in account. The traditional multivariate grey models GM(1,M) takes those factor in account but it has a complex structure and some defects in " modeling mechanism", "parameter estimation "and "model structure", So that traditional GM(1,M) submitted to many trials of optimizations to getting rid this defects. This research shows the characteristics of the traditional GM(1,M), the problems it suffer from, the method of getting rid of such problems and presents two optimized multivariable grey model of one order derivative equation. the first one is called the Optimized Grey Model abbreviated as OGM(1, M) by adding the linear correction term h1(M-1)and the grey action quantity term (h2) to the traditional model GM(1,M) the latter is called Optimized Background value Grey Model OBGM(1,M) by optimizing the Background value of the last model OGM(1,M). We use two A realistic data represents the water consumption in Baghdad at the period (2016-2022) to compare the two optimized models with the traditional represents the water consumption in Baghdad at the period (2016-2022)). we use the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the determination coefficient R2. To compare the two optimized model with traditional one. The results show that the two optimized have less values than the those of the traditional model GM(I,M), and that verify the correctness of defects analysis of GM(1,M).
Abstract:
The issues related to foreign trade is a broad field for discussions and captures the interest of economists for their contribution to the process of economic development in the economies of the countries, especially developing ones. The imports of goods and services in foreign trade constitute an important part of the local by which the economy gets goods and services that the economy cannot produce because of the incompetent base of production. Further, the demand function of imports occupied a good deal of the attention of researchers in the field of international economics for which agricultural imports constitute an important part. The reason for the interest in the subject is due to its im
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Nonlinear time series analysis is one of the most complex problems ; especially the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous variable (NARX) .Then ; the problem of model identification and the correct orders determination considered the most important problem in the analysis of time series . In this paper , we proposed splines estimation method for model identification , then we used three criterions for the correct orders determination. Where ; proposed method used to estimate the additive splines for model identification , And the rank determination depends on the additive property to avoid the problem of curse dimensionally . The proposed method is one of the nonparametric methods , and the simulation results give a
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Abstract Infinitives and gerunds are non-finite verb forms which cannot be indicated by tense, number, or person. The construction of non-finite verbs is intricate because of their nature of meanings, forms, and functions. The major problem is that both infinitival and gerundial complements have identical functions and occupy identical positions in the sentences. Thus, there is a confusion in using an infinitival and gerundial forms after aspectual verbs. The selection of either one of these two forms as complements is controlled syntactically or semantically. Moreover, both forms can be used usually with similar predicate but with neat difference in meaning. In addition, there are problems with controlling the use of aspect, since aspectua
... Show MoreThis study focuses on CFD analysis in the field of the shell and double concentric tube heat exchanger. A commercial CFD package was used to resolve the flow and temperature fields inside the shell and tubes of the heat exchanger used. Simulations by CFD are performed for the single shell and double concentric tube.
This heat exchanger included 16 tubes and 20 baffles. The shell had a length of 1.18 m and its diameter was 220 mm. Solid Works 2014, ANSYS 15.0 software was used to analyze the fields of flow and temperature inside the shell and the tubes. The RNG k-ε model was used and it provided good results. Coarse and fine meshes were investigated, showing that aspect ratio has no significant effect. 14 million
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Knowing the distribution of the mechanical rock properties and the far field stresses for the field of interest is an important task for many applications concerning reservoir geomechanics, including wellbore instability analysis, hydraulic fracturing, sand production, reservoir compaction, and subsidence. A major challenge with determining the rock's mechanical properties is that they cannot be directly measured at the borehole. Furthermore, the recovered carbonate core samples for performing measurements are limited and they provide discrete data for specific depths.
The purpose of this study is to build 2D and 3D geomechanical models of the Khasib reservoir in the East Baghdad oil field/ Central area. TECHLOG.2015.3 softwa
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This paper develops a fuzzy multi-objective model for solving aggregate production planning problems that contain multiple products and multiple periods in uncertain environments. We seek to minimize total production cost and total labor cost. We adopted a new method that utilizes a Zimmermans approach to determine the tolerance and aspiration levels. The actual performance of an industrial company was used to prove the feasibility of the proposed model. The proposed model shows that the method is useful, generalizable, and can be applied to APP problems with other parameters.
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In the beta decay process, a neutron converts into a proton, or vice versa, so the atom in this process changes to a more stable isobar. Bethe-Weizsäcker used a quasi-experimental formula in the present study to find the most stable isobar for isobaric groups of mass nuclides (A=165-175). In a group of isobars, there are two methods of calculating the most stable isobar. The most stable isobar represents the lowest parabola value by calculating the binding energy value (B.E) for each nuclide in this family, and then drawing these binding energy values as a function of the atomic number (Z) in order to obtain the mass parabolas, the second method is by calculating the atomic number value of the most stable isobar (ZA). The results show
... Show MoreActive Magnetic Bearings (AMBs) are progressively being implemented in a wide variety of applications. Their exclusive appealing features make them suitable for solving traditional rotor-bearing problems using novel design approaches for rotating machinery. In this paper, a linearized uncertain model of AMBs is utilized to develop a nonlinear sliding mode controller based on Lyapunov function for the electromechanical system. The controller requires measurements of the rotor displacements and their derivatives. Since the control law is discontinuous, the proposed controller can achieve a finite time regulation but with the drawback of the chattering problem. To reduce the effect of this problem, the gain of the uni
... Show MoreThe biosorption of Pb (II), Cd (II), and Hg (II) from simulated aqueous solutions using baker’s yeast biomass was investigated. Batch type experiments were carried out to find the equilibrium isotherm data for each component (single, binary, and ternary), and the adsorption rate constants. Kinetics pseudo-first and second order rate models applied to the adsorption data to estimate the rate constant for each solute, the results showed that the Cd (II), Pb (II), and Hg (II) uptake process followed the pseudo-second order rate model with (R2) 0.963, 0.979, and 0.960 respectively. The equilibrium isotherm data were fitted with five theoretical models. Langmuir model provides the best fitting for the experimental results with (R2) 0.992, 0
... Show MoreThe elastic transverse electron scattering form factors have been studied for the 11Li nucleus using the Two- Frequency Shell Model (TFSM) approach. The single-particle wave functions of harmonic-oscillator (HO) potential are used with two different oscillator parameters bcore and bhalo. According to this model, the core nucleons of 9Li nucleus are assumed to move in the model space of spsdpf. The outer halo (2-neutron) in 11Li is assumed to move in the pure 1p1/2, 1d5/2, 2s1/2 orbit. The shell model calculations are carried ou
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