Survival analysis is one of the types of data analysis that describes the time period until the occurrence of an event of interest such as death or other events of importance in determining what will happen to the phenomenon studied. There may be more than one endpoint for the event, in which case it is called Competing risks. The purpose of this research is to apply the dynamic approach in the analysis of discrete survival time in order to estimate the effect of covariates over time, as well as modeling the nonlinear relationship between the covariates and the discrete hazard function through the use of the multinomial logistic model and the multivariate Cox model. For the purpose of conducting the estimation process for both the discrete hazard function and the time-dependent parameters, two estimation methods have been used that depend on the Bayes method according to dynamic modeling: the Maximum A Posterior method (MAP) This method was done using numerical methods represented by a Iteratively Weighted Kalman Filter Smoothing (IWKFS) and in combination with the Expectation maximization algorithm (EM), the other method is represented by the Hybrid Markov Chains Monte Carlo (HMCMC) method using the Metropolis Hasting algorithm (MH) and Gypsum sampling (GS). It was concluded that survival analysis by descretization the data into a set of intervals is more flexible and fluid, as this allows analyzing risks and diagnosing impacts that vary over time. The study was applied in the survival analysis on dialysis until either death occurred due to kidney failure or the competing event, represented by kidney transplantation. The most important variables affecting the patient’s cessation of dialysis were also identified for both events in this research.
In this paper, two parameters for the Exponential distribution were estimated using the
Bayesian estimation method under three different loss functions: the Squared error loss function,
the Precautionary loss function, and the Entropy loss function. The Exponential distribution prior
and Gamma distribution have been assumed as the priors of the scale γ and location δ parameters
respectively. In Bayesian estimation, Maximum likelihood estimators have been used as the initial
estimators, and the Tierney-Kadane approximation has been used effectively. Based on the MonteCarlo
simulation method, those estimators were compared depending on the mean squared errors (MSEs).The results showed that the Bayesian esti
The purpose of this paper is to apply different transportation models in their minimum and maximum values by finding starting basic feasible solution and finding the optimal solution. The requirements of transportation models were presented with one of their applications in the case of minimizing the objective function, which was conducted by the researcher as real data, which took place one month in 2015, in one of the poultry farms for the production of eggs
... Show Morewith an organized propaganda campaign. This military campaign was helped to formulate its speech by many institutions, research centers, and knowledge and intelligence circles in order to mobilize public opinion gain supporters and face the opponents by different means depending on a variety of styles to achieve its required effects.
After the US occupation of Iraq, US media fighters sought to influence the Iraqi public opinion and making them convinced them of the important presence of US military forces in Iraq which necessitated finding its justification through the use of persuasive techniques in its intensive propaganda campaigns.
This research discusses the most important
Iraqi provinces suffer many of the environmental problems, appear explained these problems in the city of Basra, Basra, the largest province and is among Iraq's provinces in the annexation of oil fields, which is experiencing an oil production operations of large, it suffers from the burning of gas associated with oil extraction resulting in the emission severe gas process including toxic hydrogen sulfide gas (h2S) and oxides of carbon, sulfur and nitrogen in addition to the release of toxic metal elements such as mercury, arsenic, vanadium, which caused the man many serious diseases. , And perhaps one of the most important of these problems are worsening air quality and increasing cases of air pollution and the deterioration of the qual
... Show MoreIn this paper, we estimate the survival function for the patients of lung cancer using different nonparametric estimation methods depending on sample from complete real data which describe the duration of survivor for patients who suffer from the lung cancer based on diagnosis of disease or the enter of patients in a hospital for period of two years (starting with 2012 to the end of 2013). Comparisons between the mentioned estimation methods has been performed using statistical indicator mean squares error, concluding that the survival function for the lung cancer by using shrinkage method is the best
The trade balance is considered as a way to join the national economy with the world, So it is the mirror that reflect the economic center of the country and it is point to competitive ability of it, The tariff and the exchange rate perform a great role to motivate the domestic production and improve the trade balance if we direct them to achieve the same purpose. The Iraqi economic has trade balance which achieve overabundant during the years of studying because of the oil exports, while the other exports represent a small percentage it is hardly remember, and expansion in imports from other side causes exhaustion in oil revenues, and this make the trade balance in permanent
... Show MoreThis paper aims to build a modern vision for Islamic banks to ensure sustainability and growth, as well it aims to highlight the positive Iraqi steps in the Islamic banking sector. In order to build this vision, several scientific research approaches were adopted (quantitative, descriptive analytical, descriptive). As for the research community, it was for all the Iraqi private commercial banks, including Islamic banks. The research samples varied according to a diversity of the methods and the data availability. A questionnaire was constructed and conducted, measuring internal and external honesty. 50 questionnaires were distributed to Iraqi academic specialized in Islamic banking. All distributed forms were subject to a thorough analys
... Show MoreIn this paper, Bayes estimators for the shape and scale parameters of Weibull distribution have been obtained using the generalized weighted loss function, based on Exponential priors. Lindley’s approximation has been used effectively in Bayesian estimation. Based on theMonte Carlo simulation method, those estimators are compared depending on the mean squared errors (MSE’s).
Abstract\
In this research, estimated the reliability of water system network in Baghdad was done. to assess its performance during a specific period. a fault tree through static and dynamic gates was belt and these gates represent logical relationships between the main events in the network and analyzed using dynamic Bayesian networks . As it has been applied Dynamic Bayesian networks estimate reliability by translating dynamic fault tree to Dynamic Bayesian networks and reliability of the system appreciated. As was the potential for the expense of each phase of the network for each gate . Because there are two parts to the Dynamic Bayesian networks and two part of gate (AND), which includes the three basic units of the
... Show MoreThe aim of this study is to achieve the best distinguishing function of the variables which have common characteristics to distinguish between the groups in order to identify the situation of the governorates that suffer from the problem of deprivation. This allows the parties concerned and the regulatory authorities to intervene to take corrective measures. The main indicators of the deprivation index included (education, health, infrastructure, housing, protection) were based on 2010 data available in the Central Bureau of Statistics