Survival analysis is one of the types of data analysis that describes the time period until the occurrence of an event of interest such as death or other events of importance in determining what will happen to the phenomenon studied. There may be more than one endpoint for the event, in which case it is called Competing risks. The purpose of this research is to apply the dynamic approach in the analysis of discrete survival time in order to estimate the effect of covariates over time, as well as modeling the nonlinear relationship between the covariates and the discrete hazard function through the use of the multinomial logistic model and the multivariate Cox model. For the purpose of conducting the estimation process for both the discrete hazard function and the time-dependent parameters, two estimation methods have been used that depend on the Bayes method according to dynamic modeling: the Maximum A Posterior method (MAP) This method was done using numerical methods represented by a Iteratively Weighted Kalman Filter Smoothing (IWKFS) and in combination with the Expectation maximization algorithm (EM), the other method is represented by the Hybrid Markov Chains Monte Carlo (HMCMC) method using the Metropolis Hasting algorithm (MH) and Gypsum sampling (GS). It was concluded that survival analysis by descretization the data into a set of intervals is more flexible and fluid, as this allows analyzing risks and diagnosing impacts that vary over time. The study was applied in the survival analysis on dialysis until either death occurred due to kidney failure or the competing event, represented by kidney transplantation. The most important variables affecting the patient’s cessation of dialysis were also identified for both events in this research.
Abstract:
This research aims to compare Bayesian Method and Full Maximum Likelihood to estimate hierarchical Poisson regression model.
The comparison was done by simulation using different sample sizes (n = 30, 60, 120) and different Frequencies (r = 1000, 5000) for the experiments as was the adoption of the Mean Square Error to compare the preference estimation methods and then choose the best way to appreciate model and concluded that hierarchical Poisson regression model that has been appreciated Full Maximum Likelihood Full Maximum Likelihood with sample size (n = 30) is the best to represent the maternal mortality data after it has been reliance value param
... Show More
The present study aimed to determine the serum sex hormone levels among Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia (BPH) patients before and after 3 months of oral administration of 5-α reductase inhibitor(finasteride). Forty BPH patients and 40 healthy men from Amara city were involved in this study, their ages were between 40-59 year. They were all subjected to direct estimation of hormones by MinVidas method including Testosterone (T), Estradiol (E2), Follicle Stimulating Hormone (FSH), Luteinizing Hormone (LH), Prolactin (PRL), and Dihydrotestosterone (DHT) before and after 3 months of treatment with 5α-reductase inhibitor (finasteride) (the healthy individuals didn’t take finasteride).The results showed that T level was significantly lo
... Show More
(1)
(1)
In this research, we find the Bayesian formulas and the estimation of Bayesian expectation for product system of Atlas Company. The units of the system have been examined by helping the technical staff at the company and by providing a real data the company which manufacturer the system. This real data include the failed units for each drawn sample, which represents the total number of the manufacturer units by the company system. We calculate the range for each estimator by using the Maximum Likelihood estimator. We obtain that the expectation-Bayesian estimation is better than the Bayesian estimator of the different partially samples which were drawn from the product system after it checked by the
... Show More
This paper deals with, Bayesian estimation of the parameters of Gamma distribution under Generalized Weighted loss function, based on Gamma and Exponential priors for the shape and scale parameters, respectively. Moment, Maximum likelihood estimators and Lindley’s approximation have been used effectively in Bayesian estimation. Based on Monte Carlo simulation method, those estimators are compared in terms of the mean squared errors (MSE’s).
(6)
(4)
Vocational education is the basis of contemporary educational movement that aims at satisfying human needs. Societies can develop their human resources via setting programs for the working class as an aspect of the comprehensive national development. Vocational education is the main source of technical cadres the Iraqi labor market requires of the vocational preparatory schools to provide after three years of schooling.
The vocational schools of the governorate of Basra have a number of problems that lead to the lack of proficiency of their graduates. This study is an attempt to identify these problems or obstacles
... Show More
SUMMARY. The objectives of the present study were to assess the possible predictors of COVID-19 severity and duration of hospitalization and to identify the possible correlation between patient parameters, disease severity and duration of hospitalization. The study included retrospective medical record extraction of previous coron avirus COVID-19 patients in Basra hospitals, Iraq from March 1st and May 31st, 2020. The information of the participants was investigated anonymously. All the patients’ characteristics, treatments, vital signs and laboratory tests (hematological, renal and liver function tests) were collected. The analysis was conducted using the SPSS (version 22, USA). Spearman correlation was used to measure the relations
... Show More
This paper studies the investment project evaluation under the condition of uncertainty. Evaluation of investment project under risk and uncertainty is possible to be carried out through application of various methods and techniques. The best known methods are : Risk-adjusted discount rate , certainty equivalent method , Sensitivity analysis and Simulation method The objective of this study is using the sensitivity analysis in evaluation Glass Bottles project in Anbar province under the condition of risk and uncertainty.
After applying sensitivity analysis we found that the glass bottles project sensitive to the following factors (cash flow, the cost of investment, and the pro
... Show More
The Research topic seeks to analyze the "political risk and its component Terrorism Index," which consists of five indicators index, a number of terrorist operations, and the number of dead and wounded, and the size of the physical losses, based search sub-index analysis of material losses for the index terrorism and its impact on the indicators listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange Finance. As for the practical side, it has been use style gradient unrestricted and link the sample represented by ten banks listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange. was Statement the correlation and interaction of variables of the studySearch results produced that the volume of material losses is the most important indicator in the influential force and it explain a v
... Show More
Sickle cell disease (SCD) comprises an inherited blood disorder that is life long and affects many people globally. In spite of the development in treatment, SCA is a considerable cause of mortality and morbidity. The present study tries to assess the role of leukocytes represented by β integrin(CD18) and platelets and their productivity in the pathogenicity of disease during the steady state and crisis in comparison with the healthy as-control group, SCD patients (15) enrolled during crisis and steady state (follow up) showed a significant increase in leukocytes and platelets cells productivity during crisis when compared to the steady state and in the steady state when compared to the healthy control group . In this study, SCD patho
... Show More
(2)