Survival analysis is one of the types of data analysis that describes the time period until the occurrence of an event of interest such as death or other events of importance in determining what will happen to the phenomenon studied. There may be more than one endpoint for the event, in which case it is called Competing risks. The purpose of this research is to apply the dynamic approach in the analysis of discrete survival time in order to estimate the effect of covariates over time, as well as modeling the nonlinear relationship between the covariates and the discrete hazard function through the use of the multinomial logistic model and the multivariate Cox model. For the purpose of conducting the estimation process for both the discrete hazard function and the time-dependent parameters, two estimation methods have been used that depend on the Bayes method according to dynamic modeling: the Maximum A Posterior method (MAP) This method was done using numerical methods represented by a Iteratively Weighted Kalman Filter Smoothing (IWKFS) and in combination with the Expectation maximization algorithm (EM), the other method is represented by the Hybrid Markov Chains Monte Carlo (HMCMC) method using the Metropolis Hasting algorithm (MH) and Gypsum sampling (GS). It was concluded that survival analysis by descretization the data into a set of intervals is more flexible and fluid, as this allows analyzing risks and diagnosing impacts that vary over time. The study was applied in the survival analysis on dialysis until either death occurred due to kidney failure or the competing event, represented by kidney transplantation. The most important variables affecting the patient’s cessation of dialysis were also identified for both events in this research.
The judgment enjoys many potential sources. If we look at these sources with analytical view that enable us to identify the potentials of strength in them which is the existence of features that distinct each place from the other one, which can be considered opportunities that provide the designer and the planner the possibility to design and planning which is based on subs taken from the reality of the available data of the location.
At this point outstands the role of development sources as one of the processes of re-configuring the place which appear as a result of a reality that requires setting new goals for the society and to achieve these goals it takes observations dealing with the place policies that should be taken, so this
Abstract:
Since the railway transport sector is very important in many countries of the world, we have tried through this research to study the production function of this sector and to indicate the level of productivity under which it operates.
It was found through the estimation and analysis of the production function Kub - Duglas that the railway transport sector in Iraq suffers from a decline in the level of productivity, which was reflected in the deterioration of the level of services provided for the transport of passengers and goods. This led to the loss of the sector of importance in supporting the national economy and the reluctance of most passengers an
... Show MoreThis paper presents a grey model GM(1,1) of the first rank and a variable one and is the basis of the grey system theory , This research dealt properties of grey model and a set of methods to estimate parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the least square Method (LS) , weighted least square method (WLS), total least square method (TLS) and gradient descent method (DS). These methods were compared based on two types of standards: Mean square error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and after comparison using simulation the best method was applied to real data represented by the rate of consumption of the two types of oils a Heavy fuel (HFO) and diesel fuel (D.O) and has been applied several tests to
... Show MoreIn this research want to make analysis for some indicators and it's classifications that related with the teaching process and the scientific level for graduate studies in the university by using analysis of variance for ranked data for repeated measurements instead of the ordinary analysis of variance . We reach many conclusions for the
important classifications for each indicator that has affected on the teaching process. &nb
... Show MoreThe time series of statistical methods mission followed in this area analysis method, Figuring certain displayed on a certain period of time and analysis we can identify the pattern and the factors affecting them and use them to predict the future of the phenomenon of values, which helps to develop a way of predicting the development of the economic development of sound
The research aims to select the best model to predict the number of infections with hepatitis Alvairose models using Box - Jenkins non-seasonal forecasting in the future.
Data were collected from the Ministry of Health / Department of Health Statistics for the period (from January 2009 until December 2013) was used
... Show MoreTo limit or reduce common microbial contamination occurrence in dairy products in general and in soft cheese in particular, produced in locally plants, this study was performed to demonstrate the possibility of implementing HACCP in one of dairy plants in Baghdad city
HACCP plan was proposed in soft cheese production line. A pre-evaluation was performed in soft cheese line production, HACCP Pre-requisites programs was evaluated from its presence and effectiveness. The evaluation was demonstrated risk in each of: Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) program, evaluated as microbial and physical risk and considered as critical r
... Show MoreThe process of evaluating data (age and the gender structure) is one of the important factors that help any country to draw plans and programs for the future. Discussed the errors in population data for the census of Iraqi population of 1997. targeted correct and revised to serve the purposes of planning. which will be smoothing the population databy using nonparametric regression estimator (Nadaraya-Watson estimator) This estimator depends on bandwidth (h) which can be calculate it by two ways of using Bayesian method, the first when observations distribution is Lognormal Kernel and the second is when observations distribution is Normal Kernel
... Show MoreExponential distribution is one of most common distributions in studies and scientific researches with wide application in the fields of reliability, engineering and in analyzing survival function therefore the researcher has carried on extended studies in the characteristics of this distribution.
In this research, estimation of survival function for truncated exponential distribution in the maximum likelihood methods and Bayes first and second method, least square method and Jackknife dependent in the first place on the maximum likelihood method, then on Bayes first method then comparing then using simulation, thus to accomplish this task, different size samples have been adopted by the searcher us
... Show MoreIn this research , we study the inverse Gompertz distribution (IG) and estimate the survival function of the distribution , and the survival function was evaluated using three methods (the Maximum likelihood, least squares, and percentiles estimators) and choosing the best method estimation ,as it was found that the best method for estimating the survival function is the squares-least method because it has the lowest IMSE and for all sample sizes
The international reporting auditor witness rapidly developed over the past years, where profession began give attention to the development of auditor reporting and improve its informational report through the issuance and amendment of some relevant international auditing standards. The reality of the situation refers to the failure to inform the auditor in Iraq in many areas, including: Clearly defined management responsibility for the preparation of financial and auditor's responsibility to express an opinion on these statements and Amendment of opinion when the financial statements as a whole is free from material misstatement based on the evidence is sufficient and appropriate audit, or not to build the auditor's ability to obt
... Show More