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The Bayesian Estimation in Competing Risks Analysis for Discrete Survival Data under Dynamic Methodology with Application to Dialysis Patients in Basra/ Iraq
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Survival analysis is one of the types of data analysis that describes the time period until the occurrence of an event of interest such as death or other events of importance in determining what will happen to the phenomenon studied. There may be more than one endpoint for the event, in which case it is called Competing risks. The purpose of this research is to apply the dynamic approach in the analysis of discrete survival time in order to estimate the effect of covariates over time, as well as modeling the nonlinear relationship between the covariates and the discrete hazard function through the use of the multinomial logistic model and the multivariate Cox model. For the purpose of conducting the estimation process for both the discrete hazard function and the time-dependent parameters, two estimation methods have been used that depend on the Bayes method according to dynamic modeling: the Maximum A Posterior method (MAP) This method was done using numerical methods represented by a Iteratively Weighted Kalman Filter Smoothing (IWKFS) and in combination with the Expectation maximization algorithm (EM), the other method is represented by the Hybrid Markov Chains Monte Carlo (HMCMC) method using the Metropolis Hasting algorithm (MH) and Gypsum sampling (GS). It was concluded that survival analysis by descretization the data into a set of intervals is more flexible and fluid, as this allows analyzing risks and diagnosing impacts that vary over time. The study was applied in the survival analysis on dialysis until either death occurred due to kidney failure or the competing event, represented by kidney transplantation. The most important variables affecting the patient’s cessation of dialysis were also identified for both events in this research.

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 20 2019
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Bayesian Estimation for Two Parameters of Gamma Distribution Under Precautionary Loss Function
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In the current study, the researchers have been obtained Bayes estimators for the shape and scale parameters of Gamma distribution under the precautionary loss function, assuming the priors, represented by Gamma and Exponential priors for the shape and scale parameters respectively. Moment, Maximum likelihood estimators and Lindley’s approximation have been used effectively in Bayesian estimation.

Based on Monte Carlo simulation method, those estimators are compared depending on the mean squared errors (MSE’s). The results show that, the performance of Bayes estimator under precautionary loss function with Gamma and Exponential priors is better than other estimates in all cases.

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Analysis of the relationship between inflation and the tax revenue in Iraq for the period 1990-2010
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The Iraqi economy has suffered for a long period of inflation because of the Iraq war and the resolutions and the sanctions that were imposed on Iraq, this phenomenon overshadowed at various aspects of the economy including the tax revenue that the State seeks to optimize the total income for the budget, the research covers the years 1990-2010, these years have been divided according to the country's economic variables.

The research  adopted on econometrics analysis that is based on the information and data available on topics and has been using statistical methods to test functions are formulated.

Research concluded that rates of inflation and GDP impact is limited to direct taxation and indirect in current prices a

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Woman's Quest for Survival: Margret Drabble's The Millstone
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This study deals with The Millstone (1965) which is a dramatic depiction of a single
mother heroine in a classic predicament. This novel is considered as representative of the age
in which it was written. The primary theme is her intense preoccupation with questions of
fatalism and will. The work also involves, both explicitly and implicitly, feminist concerns.
Because the central protagonist is a woman and the society in which she lives is depicted,
accurately, as deeply patriarchal and class-bound, the problem of the individual's capacity for
self-determination is inevitably tied to the feminist perspective.

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 31 2015
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Profiles and Geotechnical Properties for some Basra Soils
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 Abstract

Basra province is known for its logistic location for trading activity and oil industry. By geological point of view, Basra areas are believed to consist mainly of alternation of (clay, silty clay, clayey silt, silt and sand) type of soil. Any development of industry in this area should be affected by the occurrence of the clay soil. That is why the investigation to the soil is more than necessary. In this case, a vast testing program was carried out by the author to evaluate the various formations constituting the of some Basra soils. An attempt to characterize and discuss the nature, minerals, engineering behavior and field properties of soil samples extracted from more than one thousand and one

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 13 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Energy and Exergy Analysis on Modified Closed Wet Cooling Tower in Iraq
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The present study involves experimental analysis of the modified Closed Wet Cooling Tower (CWCT) based on first and second law of thermodynamics, to gain a deeper knowledge in this important field of engineering in Iraq. For this purpose, a prototype of CWCT optimized by added packing under a heat exchanger was designed, manufactured and tested for cooling capacity of 9 kW. Experiments are conducted to explore the effects of various operational and conformational parameters on the towers thermal performance. In the test section, spray water temperature and both dry bulb temperature and relative humidity of air measured at intermediate points of the heat exchanger and packing. Exergy of water and air were calculated by applying the exergy

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 20 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measurement and analysis of financial liberalization in Iraq
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Abstract :                                                                                                            

In light of the trend of the countries of t

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison Between Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Methods For Estimating The Gamma Regression With Practical Application
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In this paper, we will illustrate a gamma regression model assuming that the dependent variable (Y) is a gamma distribution and that it's mean ( ) is related through a linear predictor with link function which is identity link function g(μ) = μ. It also contains the shape parameter which is not constant and depends on the linear predictor and with link function which is the log link and we will estimate the parameters of gamma regression by using two estimation methods which are The Maximum Likelihood and the Bayesian and a comparison between these methods by using the standard comparison of average squares of error (MSE), where the two methods were applied to real da

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 04 2017
Journal Name
Al-qadisiyah Journal For Administrative And Economic Sciences
Survival Function Estimating of Single age Groups for Generalized Gamma Distribution with Simulation.
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The analysis of survival and reliability considered of topics and methods of vital statistics at the present time because of their importance in the various demographical, medical, industrial and engineering fields. This research focused generate random data for samples from the probability distribution Generalized Gamma: GG, known as: "Inverse Transformation" Method: ITM, which includes the distribution cycle integration function incomplete Gamma integration making it more difficult classical estimation so will be the need to illustration to the method of numerical approximation and then appreciation of the function of survival function. It was estimated survival function by simulation the way "Monte Carlo". The Entropy method used for the

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 15 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Relationship Analysis Between Monetary Policy and Financial Sustainability in Iraq For the Period 2015–2021
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This research aims to study and analyze the reality of monetary policy and financial sustainability in Iraq through either a descriptive or analytical approach by trying to link and coordinate between monetary policy and fiscal policy to enhance economic sustainability. The research is based on the hypothesis that the monetary policy of Iraq contributes to achieving financial stability, which improves economic sustainability by providing aid and assistance to the state to reduce the budget deficit and exacerbate indebtedness. The author used the monetary policy indicators, the re-deduction of Treasury transfers by the central bank and the money supply, and financial sustainability indicators, including the public debt indicators and the

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The relationship between oil revenues and financial sustainability in the Iraq analysis for the period (1990-2013)
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This study aimed to analyze and measure the relationship between oil revenues and financial sustainability in Iraq, the study used the stylistic approach inductive and deductive approach. Accompanied by the use of quantitative and analytical style, which was based on two variables oil revenues and net general budget on annual data covered the period (1990-2013). Among the most important findings of the study contain the time-series variables study on the root of the unit and is not stable in the general level, and become stable after the use of mathematical processors to gain access to a stable by taking the first difference of natural Ogartm of the series. The way (Johnson) to a long-term relationship between oil revenues and ne

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