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The Bayesian Estimation in Competing Risks Analysis for Discrete Survival Data under Dynamic Methodology with Application to Dialysis Patients in Basra/ Iraq
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Survival analysis is one of the types of data analysis that describes the time period until the occurrence of an event of interest such as death or other events of importance in determining what will happen to the phenomenon studied. There may be more than one endpoint for the event, in which case it is called Competing risks. The purpose of this research is to apply the dynamic approach in the analysis of discrete survival time in order to estimate the effect of covariates over time, as well as modeling the nonlinear relationship between the covariates and the discrete hazard function through the use of the multinomial logistic model and the multivariate Cox model. For the purpose of conducting the estimation process for both the discrete hazard function and the time-dependent parameters, two estimation methods have been used that depend on the Bayes method according to dynamic modeling: the Maximum A Posterior method (MAP) This method was done using numerical methods represented by a Iteratively Weighted Kalman Filter Smoothing (IWKFS) and in combination with the Expectation maximization algorithm (EM), the other method is represented by the Hybrid Markov Chains Monte Carlo (HMCMC) method using the Metropolis Hasting algorithm (MH) and Gypsum sampling (GS). It was concluded that survival analysis by descretization the data into a set of intervals is more flexible and fluid, as this allows analyzing risks and diagnosing impacts that vary over time. The study was applied in the survival analysis on dialysis until either death occurred due to kidney failure or the competing event, represented by kidney transplantation. The most important variables affecting the patient’s cessation of dialysis were also identified for both events in this research.

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Oil Sector in Iraq (Reality and Prospects) Economic Analysis
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   The oil sector in Iraq suffered from several difficulties led to the decline and reduction of oil production and the deterioration of refineries and transport pipeline status in addition to the weakness of the technology side and the prevalence of financial and administrative corruption besides the high costs of rehabilitation of the oil sector and also administrative and institutional problems still ongoing. 

 In spite of Iraq's possession of vast oil wealth allows him to play an important role in the international energy market، he is still under the level. The production of oil doesn'<

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Ghrelin and Leptin and Their Relations with Insulin Resistance in Diabetes Mellitus Type 2 Patients
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Ghrelin and leptin are hunger hormones related to type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and the pathogenesis of T2DM is the abnormality in insulin secretion and insulin resistance (IR). The aim of this study is to evaluate ghrelin and leptin concentrations in blood and to specify the relationship of these hormones as dependent variables with some biochemical and clinical measurements in T2DM patients. In this study, forty one T2DM and forty three non-diabetes mellitus (non-DM) subjects, aged between 40-60 years and with normal weight, were enrolled. Fasting serum ghrelin and leptin were estimated by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). In our results ghrelin was significantly increased, and leptin was significantly decreased, in T2DM pa

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 30 2018
Journal Name
International Journal Of Science And Research
The Effect of Age 0nLeptin Hormone and Some Biochemical Parameters in Patients Pre-Dialysis
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To evaluate impact the difference in stages ofage and related incidence of hemodialysis patients.Two hundred and fifty patients undergoing hemodialysis were collected from general hospital in Baghdad city /Iraq. The samples with renal failure before hemodialysis were divided into (138) male,( 112)female. The sera were separated from samples to physiological investigation. We found that renal failure was more predominant among the patients ages group ranging from (51-70) years old. The results shows A significant increase in the levels of urea, creatinine, in younger patients (≤ 30 years) when compared with older patients (>70 years). Furthermore a significant decrease in serum levels of total protein in patients in older patients (>7

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Bayesian Tobit Quantile Regression Model Using Double Adaptive elastic net and Adaptive Ridge Regression
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     Recently Tobit  Quantile Regression(TQR) has emerged as an important tool in statistical analysis . in order to improve the parameter estimation in (TQR) we proposed Bayesian hierarchical model with double adaptive elastic net technique  and Bayesian hierarchical model with adaptive ridge regression technique .

 in double adaptive elastic net technique we assume  different penalization parameters  for penalization different regression coefficients in both parameters λ1and  λ, also in adaptive ridge regression technique we assume different  penalization parameters for penalization different regression coefficients i

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 02 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Personality Types According to Holland's Theory and its Relationship with the Management Changing for some Administrators in the Province of Kurdistan-Iraq
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The figure of personality modes determines its privileged style in the use of modern and advanced technological tools in the process of changing and developing in order to keep up with that. The proses of selection and choosing administrators in the appropriate places are the most important functions of senior management because it is easy to adopt factory buildings or establishments But this is a human world as that of machines world. So it is required to have people in the process of changing those who have a time, Knowledge, skill, ability and strong administrative personal skills, those people (leaders) should to put a clear vision for the selection and application of the change efforts and to create the necessary climate and

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis of the relationship between the prices of wheat and rice importer in Iraq and crude oil prices and the exchange rate using the ARDL model
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Since the beginning of 21st century, the prices of Agricultural crops have increased. This Increases is accompanied with that increases of crude oil prices and fluctuation of a dollar exchange rate as a dominant currency used in the global trade. The paper aimed to analysis the short run and long run cointegration relationships between prices of some of Agricultural crops imported by Iraq such as wheat and rice crops and both the crude oil prices and the Iraq dinar exchange rate a gained America dollar using ARDL model. The results show the long run equilibrium between they three variable throng the error correction mechanizem. The results also show the significant and economically sound effects of cru

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Estimation of the average sample size and defective ratio In a finite individualized inspection with a practical application
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The purpose of this research is to find the estimator of the average proportion of defectives based on attribute samples. That have been curtailed either with rejection of a lot finding the kth defective or with acceptance on finding the kth non defective.

The MLE (Maximum likelihood estimator) is derived. And also the ASN in Single Curtailed Sampling has been derived and we obtain a simplified Formula All the Notations needed are explained.

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 26 2016
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
ESTIMATION OF THE CHEMICAL COMPONENTS OF WASTES PRESSED GRAPES A STUDY THE EFFECT OF THERMAL EXTRACTS TRANSACTIONS IN INHIBITING THE GROWT OF MICROORGANISMS.: ESTIMATION OF THE CHEMICAL COMPONENTS OF WASTES PRESSED GRAPES A STUDY THE EFFECT OF THERMAL EXTRACTS TRANSACTIONS IN INHIBITING THE GROWT OF MICROORGANISMS.
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The chemical composition of wastes of pressed grapes and found that the main components of wastes of pressed grapes, represented by the percentage of moisture was 6.47%, and the proportions are 3.71%. Either carbohydrates amounted to 85.77 %, either in fat models using petroleum ether Petroleum ether) was the increase of 0.27%. estimated the percentage of ash in the sampls was 3.78%, either fiber reached 69.47 %,, in addition to the test extracts towards the growth of seven types of bacteria, which included Bacillus subtilis, Bacillus cereus, Bacillus stearothermophilus, Escherishia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, Salmonella typhimurium and Pseudomonas fluorescens and yeast Candida albicans and Kluyveromyces marxianus, ( diffusion method ).

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Geotechnical Engineering And Sustainable Construction
Numerical Modeling of Under Reamed Piles Behavior Under Dynamic Loading in Sandy Soil
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Under-reamed piles defined by having one or more bulbs have the potential for sizeable major sides over conventional straight-sided piles, most of the studies on under-reamed piles have been conducted on the experimental side, while theoretical studies, such as the finite element method, have been mainly confined to conventional straight-sided piles. On the other hand, although several laboratory and experimental studies have been conducted to study the behavior of under-reamed piles, few numer­ical studies have been carried out to simulate the piles' performance. In addition, there is no research to compare and evaluate the behavior of these piles under dynamic loading. Therefore, this study aimed to numerically investigate bearing capaci

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Scopus (2)
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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Settling Accounts of tax According to the unified Tax A Suggested Mechanism for: Application in the general Commission for Taxes
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Consistent "with the thought of tax talk is unified tax natural evolution for him, as the application leads to the inclusion of tax all branches of income and its sources and through truncated part of this entry through the application of price ascending it, it means the procedures of tax reform. Taxes on total income characterized by giving a clear picture of the total income of the taxpayer and its financial situation and its burden family which allows granting exemptions, downloads, and application of prices that fit this case. This requires reconsideration of the structure of the tax system in force and the transition from a system specific taxes to the tax system on the total income of the integration of income from the rental of re

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