Markov chains are an application of stochastic models in operation research, helping the analysis and optimization of processes with random events and transitions. The method that will be deployed to obtain the transient solution to a Markov chain problem is an important part of this process. The present paper introduces a novel Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) approach to solve the Markov chain problem. The probability distribution of a continuous-time Markov chain with an infinitesimal generator at a given time is considered, which is a resulting solution of the Chapman-Kolmogorov differential equation. This study presents a one-step second-derivative method with better accuracy in solving the first-order Initial Value Problem

As the reservoir conditions are in continuous changing during its life, well production rateand its performance will change and it needs to re-model according to the current situationsand to keep the production rate as high as possible.Well productivity is affected by changing in reservoir pressure, water cut, tubing size andwellhead pressure. For electrical submersible pump (ESP), it will also affected by numberof stages and operating frequency.In general, the production rate increases when reservoir pressure increases and/or water cutdecreases. Also the flow rate increase when tubing size increases and/or wellhead pressuredecreases. For ESP well, production rate increases when number of stages is increasedand/or pump frequency is

One of the most important and common problems in petroleum engineering; reservoir, and production engineering is coning; either water or gas coning. Almost 75% of the drilled wells worldwide contains this problem, and in Iraq water coning problem is much wider than the gas coning problem thus in this paper we try to clarify most of the reasons causing water coning and some of applicable solutions to avoid it using the simulation program (CMG Builder) to build a single well model considering an Iraqi well in north of Iraq black oil field with a bottom water drive, Coning was decreased by 57% by dividing into sub-layers (8) layers rather than (4) layers, also it was decreased (Coning) by 45% when perforation numbers and positions was chang

The article aims to study the crisis of political change  from three Phases . The first focuses on the crises of political legitimacy and democratic postponement, as fundamental issues in analyzing the phenomenon of power struggle through the dialectic between the concept of historical legitimacy and institutional fragility from the beginning of statehood in 1962 to the stage of multi-partyism and the cessation of the electoral process in the 1990s. While the second focuses on the question of the monopoly of power in the post-terrorism and national reconciliation according to considerations  Political, social and security measures to prolong the life of the regime and avoid the demands of political change brought about

Abstract Political power in Lebanon is a fundamental objective of any political organization, whether political party or political group. Thus, there is a conflict of power. There are two kinds of political conflict that are differentiated by the idea of legitimacy. The competition is in the political system when the agreement between the social forces is considered legitimate, and the conflict is on the political system when the agreement between these forces ceases to be legitimate and Are working to topple it and seek to establish an alternative system. Therefore, the succession of power in Lebanon is a result of the competition and political conflict, which is in turn a result of the large number of regional and international players

The analysis of survival and reliability considered of topics and methods of vital statistics at the present time because of their importance in the various demographical, medical, industrial and engineering fields. This research focused generate random data for samples from the probability distribution Generalized Gamma: GG, known as: "Inverse Transformation" Method: ITM, which includes the distribution cycle integration function incomplete Gamma integration making it more difficult classical estimation so will be the need to illustration to the method of numerical approximation and then appreciation of the function of survival function. It was estimated survival function by simulation the way "Monte Carlo". The Entropy method used for the

This paper deals with, Bayesian estimation of the parameters of Gamma distribution under Generalized Weighted loss function, based on Gamma and Exponential priors for the shape and scale parameters, respectively. Moment, Maximum likelihood estimators and Lindley’s approximation have been used effectively in Bayesian estimation. Based on Monte Carlo simulation method, those estimators are compared in terms of the mean squared errors (MSE’s).

        In this paper, an estimate has been made for parameters and the reliability function for Transmuted power function (TPF) distribution through using some estimation methods as proposed new technique for white, percentile, least square, weighted least square and modification moment methods. A simulation was used to generate random data that follow the (TPF) distribution on three experiments (E₁ , E₂ , E₃)  of the real values of the parameters, and with sample size (n=10,25,50 and 100) and iteration samples (N=1000), and taking reliability times (0< t < 0) . Comparisons have been made between the obtained results from the estimators using mean square error (MSE). The results showed the

         To ascertain the stability or instability of time series, three versions of the model proposed by Dickie-Voller were used in this paper. The aim of this study is to explain the extent of the impact of some economic variables such as the supply of money, gross domestic product, national income, after reaching the stability of these variables. The results show that the variable money supply, the GDP variable, and the exchange rate variable were all stable at the level of the first difference in the time series. This means that the series is an integrated first-class series. Hence, the gross fixed capital formation variable, the variable national income, and the variable interest rate

The utilization of carbon dioxide (CO₂) to enhance wellbore injectivity presents a cost-effective and sustainable strategy for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions while improving reservoir performance. This study introduces an environmentally friendly method employing a water-soluble chitosan salt (CS) that generates a carbonated-rich acid solution upon contact with dry CO₂ at 25 °C and 508 psi. CS solutions (100–2000 ppm) were prepared and evaluated for CO₂ uptake, acid generation, and rheological behavior. Results show that 1000 ppm achieves an optimal CO2 uptake (2612 mg/l), with moderate viscosity increase (from 1.52 to 3.37 cp), while higher concentrations exhibit a sharp rise due to polymer-like network formation. Core floodi