يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The research is aimed at investigating how the New York Times framed the war against ISIS in its news coverage and which news sources it adopted while reporting on this war.
The research could be classified under descriptive researches. The survey methodology has been adopted and the content analysis has been used. The research sample consists of all the news stories the New York Times have published about the war against ISIS from 10/17/2016 to 4/16/2017 according to the comprehensive sampling method. The number of news stories that were analyzed was (155) news story. The research tool was (coding scheme).
The research has reached the following conclusions:
1. In its news coverage of the war against ISIS, the New York T
Abstract
Should be the goal of Government controls, including environmental controls and safety laws to protect citizens from the harmful effects of negative secreted by human's additions and changes in the environment. and perhaps the protection aspects of the protection of citizens from the adverse effects of communications towers, including those produced by towers of health effects. The people the right to choose the nature of the physical environment, which should not be imposed on them by others. Communications towers are one of the main problems that have been
... Show MoreThe sustainable competitive advantage for organizations is one of the requirements for value creation, which centered on the possession of scarce resources that achieve maximum flows to invest in intellectual capital, if what has been interest in them, measured and employed the way properly and style, so I figured the need for new technologies to enable organizations to measure the intellectual and physical assets and to assess its performance accordingly, so it sheds search light on the measurement of the added value of existing knowledge using the standard value-added factor is the intellectual (value added intellectual coefficient) (VAIC) and to develop a set of assumptions about the extent of the difference between the sample
... Show MoreThe research discusses the need to find the innovative structures and methodologies for developing Human Capital (HC) in Iraqi Universities. One of the most important of these structures is Communities of Practice (CoPs) which contributes to develop HC by using learning, teaching and training through the conversion speed of knowledge and creativity into practice. This research has been used the comparative approach through employing the methodology of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) by using (Excel 2010 - Solver) as a field evidence to prove the role of CoPs in developing HC. In light of the given information, a researcher adopted on an archived preliminary data about (23) colleges at Mosul University as a deliberate sample for t
... Show Moreدُرِست العوامل المؤثرة في عدد ساعات تجهيز الكهرباء في مدينة بغداد، وتكونت عينة الدراسة من (365) مشاهدة يومية لعام 2018، وتمثلت بستة متغيرات استعملت في الدراسة. كان الهدف الرئيس هو دراسة العلاقة بين هذه المتغيرات، وتقدير تأثيرات المتغيرات التنبؤية في المتغير التابع (عدد ساعات تجهيز الكهرباء في مدينة بغداد). ولتحقيق ذلك استعملت نمذجة المعادلات الهيكلية/ تحليل المسار وبرنامج AMOS
... Show Morethe research was exposed to a study the importance of the role of the supportive entities in providing the useful information to the tax administration and their ability to extend the level of the tax base of taxpayers, through the improvement of the tax payers determination and their tax settle for the purpose of increasing the tax revenue, and shed light on the legal evidence through which these entities become officially assigned to perform a supplementary task to the General Committee for Taxes GCT, to help it to perform its task efficiently, and to study the reasons of the weak cooperation of the supportive entities and their reluctance to provide useful information which leads to limiting the tax base.
The research data hav
... Show MoreThe social networking sites have become one of the most important promotional instruments for their characteristic of facilitation of communication and the creation of public platform for discussion and formation of new points of view. These sites were used in the political marketing process where politicians use Facebook pages to promote their ideologies and spread their programs for the purpose of an influencing public opinion.
This research deals with the way by which political products are the Iraqi parliament. We adopt the methodology for analyzing the contents of these pages during three months starting from September,12 2016 to March 1, 2017 characterized by a lot of changes and events, in particular the beginning of the war o
Communities seek to achieve the economic growth through the optimal use of resources. The human resource is considered the most important of those resources where the insurance institutions take the larger role in the protection of this resource and reducing the impact caused by dangers realization that endures. The general Iraqi insurance company is considered the leading in the field of life insurance since it was founded, and until now.
This research is based on an analyzing the relation between premiums and compensations of life insurance, for individual and the group insurance, and a reality of the
... Show MoreGender and culture are among the factors that influence the process of understanding and interpreting different types of communication, especially images. The current study, which is a part of a master’s thesis, aims at investigating the role of gender and culture in interpreting and understanding the caricatures that deal with women’s issues in Arab societies. To this end, the researchers adopted Barthes’ (1957) concepts of denotation and connotation in his theory of mythologies in addition to Langacker’s (1987) theory of (Domains). The research concludes that the female subjects have better cognitive abilities in investing the signs within the selected caricatures. The other factor the study reached to is that the respondents
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