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تحليل وقياس الاستدامة المالية لصندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي في العراق للمدة 2004-2018
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يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of some methods for estimating the parameters of the binary logistic regression model using the genetic algorithm with practical application
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Abstract

   Suffering the human because of pressure normal life of exposure to several types of heart disease as a result of due to different factors. Therefore, and in order to find out the case of a death whether or not, are to be modeled using binary logistic regression model

    In this research used, one of the most important models of nonlinear regression models extensive use in the modeling of applications statistical, in terms of heart disease which is the binary logistic regression model. and then estimating the parameters of this model using the statistical estimation methods, another problem will be appears in estimating its parameters, as well as when the numbe

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 11 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effect of the Six Thinking Hats Strategy on the Development of Essay Writing Skills and Creativity in It among Persian-Speaking Students Who are Studying Arabic Language and Literature At Shiraz University: Literature and Humanities, Shiraz University
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The study aims to investigate the effect of the Six Thinking Hats Strategy on the achievement of essay writing skills among third-year students in Arabic Language and Literature who are Persian speakers enrolled in the course of Essay Writing (III) at Shiraz University for the academic year 2019-2020. The sample of the study consisted of (15) male and female students who were taught according to the pre-posttest, using the quasi-experimental approach. After applying the statistical analysis on the scores of the post-test, the results showed that there are statistically significant differences in the average of students' achievement in the skills of essay writing in terms of using the Six Thinking Hats Strategy. The results also proved th

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The Image of the man in the series "The Cart and the Rain" by the storyteller (Badia Amin): The Image of the man in the series "The Cart and the Rain" by the storyteller (Badia Amin)
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Abstract:

The research aims to monitor the image of the man in the group (The Cart and the Rain) by the storyteller (Badiaa Amin); With the aim of highlighting an aspect of feminist writing, especially with regard to the relationship of women to men, and determining the form adopted by the storyteller in drawing the features of men.

The research used the descriptive-analytical method in the space of its textual formation, which aims to stand on the text and deconstruct its narrative significance. To provide a comprehensive picture of it.

Three images of the man appeared in the group's stories, represented by (the authoritarian, the negative, and the positive), and the image of the authoritarian ma

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
(comparative analysis of phraseological units in the lexical-semantic field "on the material of Arabic and Russian languages"): (сопоставительный анализ фразеологических единиц лексико-семантического поля " на материале арабского и русского языков")
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Establishing the systemic character of vocabulary, its relationship with other language systems, their interdependence creates the possibility of a comprehensive scientific study and description of the lexical system of each language, as well as contrastive comparative studies of several languages, including their phraseological composition.

It is known that not all words-components of phraseological units are equivalent in their role in the formation of the semantic content of phraseological units. In this regard, it is necessary to introduce the concept of a lexical dominant. To this we include words, which are kind of centers around which the entire semantic complex of phraseological units, the entire set of its words-componen

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 25 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
بحث تطبيقي في مصرف الرافدين: An Applied Research in the Rafidain Bank
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Banks was one of the institutions that are highly concerned with the issue of performance evaluation, in order to achieve optimal use of resources that enable them to achieve operational and strategic objectives both in light of the global competition fierce for the start of the research problem of banks to adopt in assessing the performance of the realization of just the traditional financial indicators which has become insufficient to keep pace with the constant evolution in the business environment, which requires work on the use of the necessary information needed to evaluate the performance of all the Bank's activities through

the use of the Balanced Scorecard method. The research aims to shed light on the dimensions of perf

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 28 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on Gross Domestic Product in Saudi Arabia using ARDL model for the period 1993-2019
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This paper analyses the relationship between selected macroeconomic variables and gross domestic product (GDP) in Saudi Arabia for the period 1993-2019. Specifically, it measures the effects of interest rate, oil price, inflation rate, budget deficit and money supply on the GDP of Saudi Arabia. The method employs in this paper is based on a descriptive analysis approach and ARDL model through the Bounds testing approach to cointegration. The results of the research reveal that the budget deficit, oil price and money supply have positive significant effects on GDP, while other variables have no effects on GDP and turned out to be insignificant. The findings suggest that both fiscal and monetary policies should be fo

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison Semiparametric Bayesian Method with Classical Method for Estimating Systems Reliability using Simulation Procedure
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               In this research, the semiparametric Bayesian method is compared with the classical  method to  estimate reliability function of three  systems :  k-out of-n system, series system, and parallel system. Each system consists of three components, the first one represents the composite parametric in which failure times distributed as exponential, whereas the second and the third components are nonparametric ones in which reliability estimations depend on Kernel method using two methods to estimate bandwidth parameter h method and Kaplan-Meier method. To indicate a better method for system reliability function estimation, it has be

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 02 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
European Loanwords in Modern Persian: واژه های اروپائی دخیل در زبان فارسی نوین ( بحث و بررسی در حوزه¬های معنایی )
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The movement and broadening of foreign and European words into Persian is a topic within historical linguistics. Such changes are semantic, phonological

Since many of these European loanwords into Persian took a remarkable space within Persian dictionaries, and became an indispensible part of the language, a study of the original languages of these loanwords may identify the enormous effect of those languages upon Persian, being a receptor language, and may refer to the liveliness.

Among the important factors which helped the movement of various loanwords into Persian are:

  • Geographical: this is seen via contact between Persian people and those neighboring people, specifically those speaking Ara

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 02 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
The search for Sanctity and Divine Love « The Narrow Door » Andre Gide: À la recherche de la sainteté et de l’amour céleste dans « La porte étroite » d’André Gide.
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The theme of love has been and still is the interest of authors and writers for it is closely related to people’s lives. That great passion has helped them express genuine thoughts pertinent to that theme that has given rise to many debates, some are vague and others controversial. In his (strait is the gate), (La Porte étroite), André Gide has sought to shed light on his characters perspective of love and its relationship with sacredness and divine happiness. Indeed these characters have found often themselves restrained, chained and exhausted, by tough religious commands that have imposed on them spiritual commitments and duties too hard to break.

André Gide has revealed a protestant deviation from the perfection theme tha

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Measuring the relationship between the skills required for the labor market and the employment of graduates of community colleges in KSA: An applied study on a sample of faculty members at KKU
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This study has aimed to measure the relationship between the skills required for the labor market and the employment of graduates of community colleges at King Khalid University. For gathering the required data, a questionnaire has been designed and distributed to the faculty members of community colleges at King Khalid University in a random sample method. The chosen sample size has covered (123) individuals. Questionnaire forms have been distributed and retrieved from (117) participants. Therefore, the estimated response has reached 95 % of the total sample size. The results of the study have shown that there is not any significant relationship between the skills which the graduates   acquire and the requirements of employmen

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